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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
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Clavinova · 25/02/2019 18:10

Some good news;

UK and US agree post-Brexit derivatives trading deal

Multitrillion-pound business will continue even if Britain leaves EU without a deal.

The US has lent its backing to Britain to protect the City from losing trillions of pounds of complex financial derivatives business after Brexit, warding off a potential banking industry land grab by the EU.

In a joint announcement heralded as a sign of the special relationship between the UK and the US, the two countries said they would take every step to ensure the continued trading of derivatives across the Atlantic under every Brexit eventuality.

www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/25/uk-us-brexit-derivatives-trading-deal-eu

BiglyBadgers · 25/02/2019 18:10

So is an extension + PV now more likely? If so what's the PV going to be asking? Can my nerves take another referendum? Confused

FusionChefGeoff · 25/02/2019 18:33

Oh God - so now, HOW do we educate the masses on what 'no deal' actually means?!?

Some of the 'man in the street' interviews and sound bytes are TERRIFYING and the main reason I've been hugely against a PV

Missbel · 25/02/2019 18:37

Far from clear exactly what Labour support for PV means - but also not clear how the maths would work out in the H of C if they did support it.

lonelyplanetmum · 25/02/2019 18:39

My friend ( who works for a Labour MP) always said that Labour's policy was to just closely monitor public trends then just sort of stay one small step ahead of public opinion.

If you want to get elected I suppose- but it's a political theory ? / sociology? / anthropology? theory I guess? To what extent does social change drive politics or to what extent does politics drive social change?

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 25/02/2019 18:40

Somewhat off Brexit but in ‘Jesus Christ What Have We Become?’ news, two items on our local news tonight:

Coastguard rescue teams told not to routinely offer humanitarian aid to refugees arriving on the Kent coast.

and:

A woman who saved a homeless man’s life by taking him in off the streets this winter doesn’t know how much longer she can allow him to stay as, as a result of her act of kindness, her housing benefit and council tax relief have been withdrawn.

What the hell is going on in this country?

DGRossetti · 25/02/2019 18:51

Much as I personally don't want the PV, it would enable me to vote Labour.

Makes the wording, timing and direction of my MPs reply the more interesting.

RedToothBrush · 25/02/2019 18:57

So is an extension + PV now more likely? If so what's the PV going to be asking? Can my nerves take another referendum?

No.

Just because Labour are officially supporting an amendment for a PV doesn't mean there will be one.

The amendment still needs to pass the HoC with a majority. Its hard to see where those votes would come from, especially with the likelihood of Labour rebels. I can not see many, if any, Tory MPs supporting the amendment.

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Mistigri · 25/02/2019 19:00

But it will still consist of having to accommodate climate change rather than affect it.

Of course we gave to adapt to climate change (we are doing it already), but every year that we delay radical action on climate increases the depth of the cuts required (if we want to keep warming within manageable limits). Gradual action would have been OK 30 years ago. It's too late now.

I was talking to DD today about the "a bit less shit party" thread on twitter, and we agreed that while this works for most public policy - in that the bigger the changes you make the more you risk things going wrong - it really doesn't work for climate change. We have to act boldly now.

This is a Brexit issue too, because while not all brexiters are climate change deniers, all climate change deniers are brexiters. It comes from the same source: old, white, rich men who don't like their behaviour being regulated.

Camomila · 25/02/2019 19:05

lonelyplanetmum As a social scientist (lol, I'm just a student) I'd say it happens both ways, sometimes policies change public opinion and sometimes public opinion shapes policy. The problem politicians have is that the time frames they use to evaluate stuff (quick! Before the next budget/election) are usually much shorter than what academics would use, so it's hard to get a nuanced picture of what's happening.

jasjas1973 · 25/02/2019 19:07

@Clavinova

How is that good news? the UK already has all this pre brexit... at best this news is the status quo.

Lets not get ahead of ourselves, a Public Vote is long long way off, far more likely is May succeeds in her blackmail of Parliament and gets her deal through, a terrible precedent would have been set.

Brexitisshit · 25/02/2019 19:10

Anyone else feeling this Labour move is too little too late?

I’m also wondering if feedback from Local Election canvassing has had anything to do with this. I told the Labour councillor who called on me that I could not vote Labour in a GE, largely down to Brexit (she did actually ask me if it was because I want to stay so I guess there must be some disillusioned Leave Labour voters too). I was noncommittal about how I’ll vote in the local elections. It is a dilemma as I like the local Labour councillors. She seemed totally fed up as well TBH.

Sostenueto · 25/02/2019 19:14

May will kick down the road again tomorrow but with a huge carrot promising a vote on deal by middle march. She will say things like ' its in our grasp' ' we are making huge progress' ' we cannot take no deal off, its my bargaining ticket.' Blah blah blah, repeat, repeat, repeat, tick, tock,tick,tock...........tick tock.

Sostenueto · 25/02/2019 19:18

Oh and her favourite saying ' we are leaving on the 29th March.'

Sostenueto · 25/02/2019 19:19

If JC is trying to do this because he's worried about losing mps then surely going for a PV will lose him more as majority are leave.?

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 19:22

Stephen Bush@stephenkb
·
... The TL;DR is that the amendment Corbyn is passing is basically the only conceivable route to another referendum but it is still very, very tricky:


Jeremy Corbyn has backed it, but the chances of another referendum are slim

www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/02/jeremy-corbyn-has-backed-it-chances-another-referendum-are-slim#amp

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 19:25

sos The vast majority of labour MPs are Remain

Only up to about 30 of them would oppose a PV - either Brexiters or they are worried about their seats that were heavily Leave

Sostenueto · 25/02/2019 19:26

I have my new diet sheet from dietician who was very pleased I put on 2 kilosConfused. I told her I wanted to keep at my new weight cos I love my new skinnys and I'm not going to go and get a bigger size! I've never been this small but I did say what with looming food shortages I think I may be safe from putting on more weight. That got a laugh, and then they told me I have to put on a kilo at least by next month.Shock

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 19:26

Labour party members are 80-90% Remain and Labour voters 70%

67chevvyimpala · 25/02/2019 19:27

Its all too late.

AutumnCrow · 25/02/2019 19:27

Emily Thornberry on C4

prettybird · 25/02/2019 19:28

Brexitisshit - that was my my immediate thought about Corbyn finally officially apparently supporting a PV.

Too. Little. Too. Late. Sad

and I'll believe it when I see it Hmm

But there again, I have the luxury of having a truly pro-Remain Party to vote for Smile

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 19:28

sos Pnut butter & banana toasted sandwiches are good for that
Also get in the habit of sloshing olive oil on top of your roast veg or salad

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 19:31

Pretty Maybe the SNP could stand in England too and rescue us !

  • we lack a sane party that understands the consequences of Brexit and doesn't go threatening much more powerful countries with our unfinished aircraft carrier.
SparklySneakers · 25/02/2019 19:32

Can't believe there's only 20 days of parliament left before brexit.

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