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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
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jasjas1973 · 25/02/2019 19:34

If Lab had supported a PV much earlier, they'd have lost hands down, however, the mood in the HoC may have changed after yet another May delay.

Labour are not like the tories, JC cannot act as a dictator as May is, JC has to go with conf policy and thats a PV if all else fails, he cannot thwart that with his own personal opinion, much like Trident renewal.

Holidayshopping · 25/02/2019 19:42

If JC is trying to do this because he's worried about losing mps then surely going for a PV will lose him more as majority are leave.?

The majority of Labour MPs are Leave?

HazardGhost · 25/02/2019 19:52

Nice to see Lab backing PV. Bit late in the day but perhaps between this and Tiggers everything will add up up to something that isnt a horror show.

Spoke to leaver friend today.... it was time badly spent that I will never get back and I have regrets. On the upside she managed to not insult DP or my relationship so that's improvement.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 19:57

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Westminstenders: The Rebellion
BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 20:00

Nick Robinson@bbcnickrobinson

Is @jeremycorbyn^ now backing another EU referendum ?^
Not yet but we’re told he will if MPs don’t vote to back Labour approach to Brexit.

What sort of referendum ?
We don’t know cos Labour aren’t saying.

Will it include the option to Remain?
We don’t know cos Labour aren’t saying

Quintella · 25/02/2019 20:00

@DanielHewittITV
Follow Follow @DanielHewittITV
Labour’s Emily Thornberry tells @itvnews there should be a second referendum. It should be Remain versus Theresa May’s deal on the ballot paper. She would vote for Remain. She would campaign for Remain. Jeremy Corbyn would campaign for Remain.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 20:02

Ross Kempsell@rosskempsell

Labour's announcement does NOT mean it is backing all efforts for a 2nd referendum, or a 'People's Vote' on the deal, or an in/out 2nd referendum

It likely means it will probably end up backing Kyle/Wilson (GFA style vote post facto a deal) IF

There is no deal by March 12

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 20:06

The Prime Minister has privately told Cabinet ministers urging her to take no-deal off the table that
the Commons could be given the option of voting to extend Article 50 by two months

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/102103/theresa-may-offering-commons

Justice Secretary David Gauke, Business Secretary Greg Clark and Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd have all told Mrs May they will quit their posts unless the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is ruled out.

Downing Street is desperate to head off a major rebellion on Wednesday,
when MPs will have the chance to vote for an amendment in the name of Yvette Cooper and Oliver Letwin which aims to give Parliament the power to delay Brexit.

Up to a dozen ministers are thought to be prepared to defy the Government to vote for it unless Mrs May offers them assurances that the UK will not leave the EU without a deal.

The Prime Minister has said she will give MPs a fresh meaningful vote on her Brexit deal by 12 March.

Speaking to the BBC on Monday morning, Ms Rudd said:
"I’m completely committed to make sure that we leave the European Union, and we do it in a way that supports the economy.
What I don’t think is acceptable is allowing us to move ever closer to no deal."

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 20:07

To be pedantic, they could be given the option of requesting a 2 month extension

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 20:11

John Rentoull@JohnRentoul*

But even if Corbyn backed a new referendum, it would muster 286 MPs currently, 33 short of a majority

< We need a lot more moderate,Tories to step up >

Brexit Trilemma:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ELogQ8sjdy55R2KAyvg5CDaFM3jVff_FiA7-TVbDL1I/mobilebasic

Sostenueto · 25/02/2019 20:11

Is heading g to kitchen for banana toastie!

BestIsWest · 25/02/2019 20:16

I will most certainly be voting for my Labour MP next time round. She’s very pro remain ( we are just about a remain constituency by a tiny margin). Hard to imagine a former head of MFL at comprehensive being otherwise. So far she’s been excellent all round.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 20:16

Enjoy, sos - with plenty of pnut butter - that has the calories you need and will build up your strength too.

GirlsBlouse17 · 25/02/2019 20:16

What would be the likely voting pattern in Parliament for a second referendum?

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 20:19

This is how the Tiggers can break the logjam - their existence / threat causes both Labour & Tory party policy to shift

Faisal Islam@faisalislam

TIG effect being felt in both big parties...

Big move towards second referendum from Leader of the Opposition.

Expectations of a move towards A50 delay this week from in Government.
...
Labour People’s Vote MP says this is the “real deal” -
Labour will push for a customs union this week,
then seek to amend MV on March 12th
with public vote plan if that gets rejected, as expected.

Quintella · 25/02/2019 20:19

Just watching Channel 4 news on catch up and Gary Gibbon said he was told that Corbyn read out the statement at PLP meeting like a hostage being forced to read out his captors' note. And that Starmer and Copper had taken over and engineered this.

I can manage a lol at that.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 20:20

Girlsblouse See my post 10 mins ago quoting John Rentoul's calculations & spreadsheet link

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 20:23

Fuck NOOOO ! ... 🤮 alert:

George Parker@GeorgeWParker

DD in modest form in Tatler interview:
"If this were an application for a job as a chief executive, I would probably win it. But it isn’t."

PM DD David Davis fires the starting gun on race to replace Theresa May – insisting he’s best person to be PM

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8506860/david-davis-prime-minister-tory-leadership-theresa-may/amp/?

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 20:25

Kevin Doyle@KevDoyle_Indo

#BREAKING: Ahead of a meeting with Theresa May in Egypt,
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is the most upbeat he’s been in while: “On the 29th of March, we’ll either have a deal or an extension.”
#Brexit

< wait until he's actually been talked down to by the Maybot ... >

SusanWalker · 25/02/2019 20:26

If 2nd ref is November and voting age is lowered to 16, like Scottish ref DS will be just old enough to vote. Unlikely on all counts I know but DS is obsessed with elections and voting and can't wait for his first election.

He's hoping anyway.

Quintella · 25/02/2019 20:29

Fuck off, David Davis.

Forget about 'give me the confidence of a mediocre white man'. Give me the overwhelming self-belief of a proven dolt like Davis.

RedToothBrush · 25/02/2019 20:31

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
Jeremy Corbyn might have staved off defections by Remainers but there's hell to pay from Leavers:

  • John Mann warns Leave constituencies will never vote Labour

  • Caroline Flint says there will 'never be unity in party'

  • Lucy Powell says 25 Labour MPs will vote against 2nd ref

OP posts:
Violetparis · 25/02/2019 20:31

Steve Hawkes from The Sun reporting on Twitter that around 70 Labour MPs would vote to stop a second referendum. Obviously have no idea how reliable this is but it wouldn't surprise me.

RedToothBrush · 25/02/2019 20:38

BCF have you seen the John Rentoul numbers in reference to a forced vote with only two options?!

If the Cooper plan were enacted, how would MPs divide then?

The Cooper plan is likely to be voted on again on 27 February, setting a new deadline of 13 March for a deal, and it has every prospect of passing. MPs would then face a forced choice between the PM’s deal and delaying Brexit (which may or may not lead to a new referendum).

The Labour leadership would presumably continue to vote against the PM’s deal, but let us assume that all 34 Labour and ex-Labour MPs listed above under “no-deal Brexit” or “PM’s deal” vote for it.

It was established on 15 January that MPs tend not to abstain in a vote on a Brexit treaty. Paul Flynn, the Labour MP who was ill, was the only non-voter in the vote on the Brexit deal (and he, Ivan Lewis, Fiona Onasanya and John Woodcock were the only non-voters on the no-confidence motion the next day). So let us assume there are only 4 abstentions: 3 no-deal Brexit Tory MPs and Chris Williamson.

If the rest of the Conservative no-dealers split 80 per cent for the PM’s deal, knowing that voting against would mean Brexit delayed, that would be 83 for and 21 against; and if the 10 DUP MPs also vote against, the PM’s deal would lose by one vote:

Forced choice between two options

PM’s deal 316
Delay Brexit 317

My God is the 12th March going to be dramatic if that's correct and that's really the last chance for a vote before 29th March.

OP posts:
tobee · 25/02/2019 20:39

The last thing we want is a "romantic" as pm.

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