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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

OP posts:
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24
tobee · 25/02/2019 15:35

If only mother. Sad

DGRossetti · 25/02/2019 15:35

My labour MP is strongly against Brexit but he is being threatened with deselection by Momentum as he is disloyal to JC

I have no idea about Momentum or otherwise in my neck of the woods. However, I suspect loyalty or not, they'd struggle to deselect the UKs first elected female Sikh MP ?

tobee · 25/02/2019 15:36

My pp was re the Brexit regret

TalkinPeece · 25/02/2019 15:39

DGR
Yup, yours is probably safe, hence why she can speak out.

Mother
If there is a GE I will wait and see how I vote because my MP has done a decent job and chaps like him are the best bet for dragging Labour back to sanity.

As for the May elections ...
I have a by election in a few weeks - think I might protest vote

and for everybody else I say
DEFINITELY VOTE
and if none of the candidates inspire you, nominations open next week Grin

HazardGhost · 25/02/2019 15:55

Eh.

Pmk further along...

Mistigri · 25/02/2019 16:01

In the unlikely event that I get a vote in the next GE (manifesto promise but not expecting it to be fulfilled) then I'll vote for the current MP (David Lammy) whether he's still Labour or not. Politics is so broken that I think that voting for capable, sane, honest politicians is the single most important thing any of us can do for British democracy. I'd vote for a sane Tory above a Labour loon and I have never voted conservative in my life.

DGRossetti · 25/02/2019 16:03

I wonder what the UN ruling on the Chagos islands means ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47358602

Can't see there being much global support for the UK ....

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 16:06

Fishes You're right about what A50 says - I admit I was thinking only politically:

The EU has always thought that it would be a terrible idea to look as if they were trying to keep the UK from leaving

  • there is already a "Hotel California" theme pushed by some Leavers, which could be used by populists in the EP elections So, there would be possible fallout here.

We should get some idea if the EU are seriously intending to offer an extension, because the European Council - the other 27 heads of govt -
have to agree unanimously.
I doubt if they could keep it quiet if they are collecing all the yes votes for this.

imo, it seems more like the EU Commission are floating the 21 months idea to see the reaction - and possibly even trying to help May frighten the ERG into approving the WA.

TalkinPeece · 25/02/2019 16:07

DGR
Chagos - it will make no difference because the US will not give up Diego Garcia so Trump will rant about the UN interfering with him

interesting that the UN vote was in 2017
it would be even worse for the UK now

bellinisurge · 25/02/2019 16:07

The Chagos ruling is huge but I think it is"advisory ". Oh the irony.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 16:09

Giles Fraser is a misogynist twat Angry

lonelyplanetmum · 25/02/2019 16:09

I think that voting for capable, sane, honest politicians is the single most important thing any of us can do for British democracy.

Apart from voting tactically to remove at least the ERG shower, another way to approach voting is to look at the candidates voting record and see who you agree with most, regardless of party loyalty. This is easier for those who've already been elected of course, otherwise it requires a bit more of in depth reading up on them and asking questions ...

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 16:11

"The International Court of Justice said the islands were not lawfully separated from the former colony of Mauritius"

So like NI, then ?
The UK hung onto a bit it wanted

OhYouBadBadKitten · 25/02/2019 16:12

We will need to watch any parcels ordered from the EU in the case of No deal as we will have to pay duties.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/hmrc-impact-assessment-for-the-vat-treatment-of-low-value-parcels/hmrc-impact-assessment-for-the-vat-treatment-of-low-value-parcels

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 16:16

I see that last August, Boris Johnson as Foreign Sec used threats, to try to bully Mauritius into dropping its case: Angry

British diplomacy in the new era

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-45300739

"We have had verbal threats," said the Prime Minister of Mauritius, Pravind Jugnauth, in an interview with BBC News.

He did not dispute a report that Britain's former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson had called him personally to pressure Mauritius to back down on its demand that the islands be returned after decades under UK control.

"Unfortunately, we have been threatened with retaliation… on issues of trade and on issues of investment, you know, and on our relationship with the UK,"

DGRossetti · 25/02/2019 16:17

Slowly digging through my inbox, and given how quiet the Brexiteers have gone Hmm, this little gem about internet debate seemed appropriate ...

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 16:18

Advisory only and anyway, the US won't move out from Diego Garcia, nor let the inhabitants return

67chevvyimpala · 25/02/2019 16:18

I've ordered some perfume samples from Switzerland.

No idea what the cost or timeframe would be post brexshit.

It'll be a wasteland but I will smell incredible

lonelyplanetmum · 25/02/2019 16:23

This is interesting about the Chagos Islands....

" After the Brexit vote, support for the UK collapsed," said Philippe Sands, the British lawyer who is representing Mauritius. "
"Britain has fallen off its pedestal. I think we're seeing a story here about… the end of empire and the end of colonialism in a small part of Africa in the Indian Ocean, coinciding with a moment when [Britain] seems to be turning inward."

Embarrassing that the British Foreign Office declined to respond directly but said "we are disappointed that Mauritius have taken this bilateral dispute to the International Court of Justice for an advisory opinion."

We are just an embarrassing mess.

DGRossetti · 25/02/2019 16:24

Anyone believe in "synchronicity" ?

Call it the stars aligning, call it a load of old bollocks, but it's hard to fight the impression sometimes that Jung was onto something ...

I find it highly amusing that the Chagos ruling has come at the time it has, when it's had since 1965 to be a thing. Especially when the ruling and language seem almost too apposite for Brexit.

Now, where's that last slice of plum pie Grin

Random18 · 25/02/2019 16:31

I will 100% not vote for my MP in next GE.

He puts career ahead of constituency / country.

He was a Reamin voter who is supporting TM’s Deal but he has never once voted against the Govt.

I did try tactical voting to keep him out last time even though it meant voting for a Labour candidate and that was a personal struggle for me with JC at the helm.

I can honestly say I could not do that now. Our Labour candidate is a local councillor but I really know nothing about her. But whilst JC is leader they have lost my vote.

If he is replaced then we’ll see.

The Tories will never ever get my vote. Not after this.

67chevvyimpala · 25/02/2019 16:33

No one I can vote for.

TalkinPeece · 25/02/2019 16:40

The thing we all have to bear in mind is that the major parties are in utter turmoil
hopefully Vince will step down as LibDem leader and allow somebody with some energy to take over
and the Tiggers will continue to not form a party
and then come the General election all sorts of things might happen

QuentinWinters · 25/02/2019 16:40

mrsbartlett scary that for Fraser brexit seems to be an opportunity to put women back in their place. Wiping bottoms and cooking food. What an idiot.

DGRossetti · 25/02/2019 16:46

scary that for Fraser brexit seems to be an opportunity to put women back in their place.

Misogyny and Brexit are an azeotropic solution ....

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