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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

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FishesaPlenty · 25/02/2019 14:09

The UK first has to request an extension - and it hasn't so far

No mention of that in Article 50. An extension has to be agreed by the UK and 'decided' by the EU but the treaty's silent on who has to make a proposal to extend.

TalkinPeece · 25/02/2019 14:10

Peregrina
Sadly I think Corbyn is even more toxic now than he was two years ago
because now everybody can see that he is a pro Brexit waste of space.
I have a lot of friends who used to sing his praises and they are all deeply annoyed with him now as their jobs are at risk due to his facilitating the ERG

LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/02/2019 14:11

BigChoc yes I know, I just wasn't as convinced that the EU would be so open to the idea when we have nothing new to think about...unless they are hoping for a PV announcement.

TatianaLarina · 25/02/2019 14:13

If the Uk govt "wiggles out" of that, then they are breaking the WA treaty.. and also breaking the Union, if they dump NI by breaking a treaty.

No, it’s not breaking the treaty. It is in the terms of the WA that if the EU-U.K. fail to agree goes on so long that stalemate is reached, the U.K. can get out of if with the EU’s agreement, leaving NI alone in the SM-CU, the original backstop.

The Brexiteers don’t give a fuck about NI, they’re extremely angry that the NI question carries so much weight and ties their hands. They’re quite content for a hard border.

AutumnCrow · 25/02/2019 14:14

Theresa Villiers on BBC rolling news now, wittering about backstop and 'the compromise '. And how threatening No Deal is still a great negotiating tactic.

Delusional or stupid?

wherearemychickens · 25/02/2019 14:23

Both, AutumnCrow

TheMostBoringPersonEver · 25/02/2019 14:25

Thanks Red

1tisILeClerc · 25/02/2019 14:27

How can you get a sensible discussion and 'solution' when most of the HoC don't understand the question?
The choice is ham OR cheese, therefore the answer can't be jam.

TatianaLarina · 25/02/2019 14:33

They thought that last time, and the media was wall to wall with "I can't vote for Corbyn..." and May lost her majority.

He was still relatively popular then though, whereas now many more people have turned against him, the antisemitism issue has blown up, and the party is beginning to split.

Everyone Labour voter I know how will not vote Labour with Corbyn in charge - whereas many did vote Labour last time.

BlueEyeshadow · 25/02/2019 14:33

Ha, I thought you were calling Jon Worth "the most boring person ever" there for a while, Red - Seemed a bit harsh! Grin

prettybird · 25/02/2019 14:38

There were many that voted Labour in the hope of getting May out and softening the Brexit - and since then have had the "80% voted for Brexit supporting parties" thrown at them.

They won't make that mistake again Hmm

SusanWalker · 25/02/2019 14:52

That was me prettybird. Well and for extra cash for education in the hope that my son might get extra help.

I certainly won't be making that mistake again.

BiglyBadgers · 25/02/2019 15:01

I still think if we have an election the vote for both main parties will collapse and we will see a lot more independents and smaller parties even with FPTP. I'm not convinced the Tories would get an outright majority though I think they would remain the largest party.

What the hell do I know though?

I sort of suspect that the main reason we aren't having a GE is that none of the parties have the money to fight one.

TatianaLarina · 25/02/2019 15:04

There were many that voted Labour in the hope of getting May out and softening the Brexit - and since then have had the "80% voted for Brexit supporting parties" thrown at them.

Absolutely. Tactical voting did work to some extent - my Tory MP went from large majority to marginal. And it cut Tory seats in Parliament.

Yes, it was still a vote for Brexit, ultimately.

TatianaLarina · 25/02/2019 15:04

Or construed as such should I say.

TalkinPeece · 25/02/2019 15:08

Badgers
I sort of suspect that the main reason we aren't having a GE is that none of the parties have the money to fight one.
But they are all crapping themselves about 2nd May
It should be on local issues
but it won't be

Mistigri · 25/02/2019 15:12

I think Corbyn is even more toxic now than he was two years ago

My Facebook feed was very pro Corbyn and Corbyn supporting MPs two years ago. Can only think of one (possibly two) supporters left on my timeline.

It's antisemitism that has done it far more than Brexit.

Motheroffourdragons · 25/02/2019 15:13

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MissBartlettsconscience · 25/02/2019 15:19

I haven't been on here for ages (my MH isn't up to Brexit anymore Sad) but I saw this article linked in the guardian yesterday and thought you'd unfortunately not be surprised by what Giles Fraser has to say, but suspect it summarises a lot of the "we want our country back" misogyny... unherd.com/2019/02/why-wont-remainers-talk-about-family/

DGRossetti · 25/02/2019 15:19

Just had a full page personal reply from my (Labour) MP following my email last week about the independent group ...

TL;DR

  1. admits there are serious problems in the Labour party that are not helping the people Labour should be.
  2. (Re)-confirming will never vote for a bad deal (so no reverse ferret for the WA)
  3. Feels there is now not enough time to make changes so an extension is the only way to pursue Brexit, and if that is not possible then revocation must be the result.

I can spot a mailmerge reply a mile off - this reply addressed my email point by point. Suggesting that some Labour MPs are rattled ?

DGRossetti · 25/02/2019 15:22

A lot of the people who supported Corbyn two years ago are now two years older.

Might sound trite, but the difference between 20 year olds and 22 year olds is an epoch, compared to the difference between a 50 year old and a 52 year old.

I'd be curious as to what the now 18 year olds are thinking ? I suspect it's not "let's vote Labour".

Motheroffourdragons · 25/02/2019 15:25

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lonelyplanetmum · 25/02/2019 15:27

Mother - can't you vote tactically or even a protest vote for anyone. A green candidate perhaps. Don't think we should encourage lurkers or anyone else to spoil ballots ( well maybe some)? If we ever get a chance to vote again spoiled ballots may keep the ERG in the power balance?

It may be up thread but ..Did anyone listen to Heseltine at lunch with Becky Milligan. It was 18 minutes of logical anti Brexit discourse - and on the BBC to boot !

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03wfkfx

TalkinPeece · 25/02/2019 15:30

Missbartlett
How lovely of Giles Fraser to assume that people have to live near their parents Angry

DGR
My labour MP is strongly against Brexit
but he is being threatened with deselection by Momentum as he is disloyal to JC

Motheroffourdragons · 25/02/2019 15:31

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