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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

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RedToothBrush · 25/02/2019 13:22

May is clear that Wednesday is simply too far into the future to talk about.

I know a week is a long time in politics but that's just taking the piss unless she thinks there is a good chance of a meteor strike in the next 24 hours.

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BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 13:23

The WA has a legally binding backstop if there is No Deal
This would keep the whole UK in the CU + all the SM trade rules
So, nearly frictionless trade

This is quite different to the situation now, when the GFA doesn't specifically rule out a harder border.

So a No Deal Brexit on 29 March doesn't actually break a treaty
whereas breaking the WA and refusing to accept the backstop

  • which is the only way we would get the kind of No Deal you are worrying about -
would be breaking a treaty

No Deal Brexit would be a certain disaster.
The UK breaking the WA is only possible WA outcome, not the most likely

If you think the UK can agree on a WA with an SM in the next 21 months, why do you think this would be impossible in the 21 months of transition ?
EIther it's impossible to agree on the SM at all, or it's equally possible before or after Brexit

If the UK govt were ever that reckless, this is what would happen:

The EU would probably sue the UK in the World Court and might even impose immediate punitive tariffs.

It would also refuse to even start negotiating until we sign up again to the WA
and most other countries wouldn't trust the UK either

The Irish lobby in the US would block any trade deal that didn't have an NI backstop

The UK would be an international pariah as far as trade deals go
and would soon come crawling back

TatianaLarina · 25/02/2019 13:23

That’s what we could be faced with - the only way round that is a genuine new centre party or a coalition gov taking charge of the process, and brokering a middle way deal.

Or Remain of course.

TatianaLarina · 25/02/2019 13:28

^The WA has a legally binding backstop if there is No Deal
This would keep the whole UK in the CU + all the SM trade rules So, nearly frictionless trade.^

It’s not the CU, it’s a skeleton CU that means we can’t strike any trade deals and can’t get out of without the EU’s say so.

We could only go on so long failing to agree a deal before the EU has had enough and formally declares a deal cannot be reached, at which point the U.K. can wriggle out leaving NI behind in the backstop.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 13:30

May was forced politically to rule out the SM, to keep her party together

Unless that changes, she will still have to rule out the SM - and rule out Revoke

As we have seen, Tory party members poll at 80% in favour of No Deal,
so very little support there

A GE would probably just result in a Tory overall majority, because Corbyn is toxic to many voters

The original SDP MPs lost nearly all their seats
They also had the benefit of the Liberal party organisation and iirc 2 years to organise their own structure in the country, their candidates in 300 seats etc

imo, the Tiggers are nowhere near ready for an early GE - they have no candidates in almost all seats in the country, no agreed policies, no Shadow Shadow Cabinet, no leader.

They need to avoid a GE, or be wiped out.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 13:33

The backstop is an all-UK one, as insisted on by May

If the Uk govt "wiggles out" of that, then they are breaking the WA treaty
... and also breaking the Union, if they dump NI by breaking a treaty.

Would the Tory party really abandon NI like this ?

TatianaLarina · 25/02/2019 13:34

I know a week is a long time in politics but that's just taking the piss unless she thinks there is a good chance of a meteor strike in the next 24 hours.

Had precisely the same thought (bar the meteor).

borntobequiet · 25/02/2019 13:36

www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/science-technology/time-is-but-an-illusion-says-may-20190225182896

One of three very good Brexit related spoofs up today.

jasjas1973 · 25/02/2019 13:40

May was forced politically to rule out the SM, to keep her party together

She didn't need much forcing! she has always hated FOM/immigration - May isn't so far away from the ERG, has just kept her views under wraps but they are all to see now.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 13:41

The terms of the backstop certainly aren't great for the UK
but they are far better than the crashing over the cliff disaster of No Deal

Dreaming of a center party alliance comes up against the FPTP that kills 3rd / new parties
it is fantasy

The Tiggers are having considerable influence on this Parliament.
As soon as Parliament is dissolved for a GE, their influence dissolves too.

We need to be realistic about what is feasible
If moderates want to have any influence, it needs to be before the end of March - i.e. to actually pass an amendment to do something.

Otherwise, it looks like either No Deal, or 21 months of the UK trying to have its cake again
The only possibility towards the end of that, to avoid no Deal, would be holding a PV
However, I doubt if this govt would last that long, so we would be looking at an early GE and a Tory majority govt.

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 13:44

Yes, jas She hates FOM, so do most of her party and a chunk of the Labour party
hence the problem with agreement on SM

If pp think the Uk couldn't possibly agree to have an SM within the 21 months of WA transition, why do they think it could happen within the 21 months of an extension ?

If you just want to extend in the hope that everyone will get fed up after a few years and give in to Remain, then it's best to say so
It is at least a feasible strategy

TalkinPeece · 25/02/2019 13:44

Why would the EU agree to a 3 month extension ?
Its not in the interests of their members as it just extends the pain without any sort of resolution in sight.

A 21 month extension I can see - as that would give Labour and Tories to both implode and start eating themselves
and even more teenagers turning 18 for another election / referendum/ you name it

but three months is just silly

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 13:46

21 months delay of any kind, whether in WA transition or A50 extension, will continue the flow of business, investment & jobs out of the UK.

Motheroffourdragons · 25/02/2019 13:47

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/02/2019 13:47

Apparently EU have agreed to an extension!
Not managed to read all as my computer keeps crashing...

OlennasWimple · 25/02/2019 13:47

Don't worry, folks!

John Redwood MP has just been on Jeremy Vine, saying that the Bank of England is wrong and the UK economy will grow by 1% every year according to his own projections

Phew!

Hmm
LonelyandTiredandLow · 25/02/2019 13:49

Ah they've not agreed it - got ahead of myself there. Still ill and computer issues stymieing me atm!

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 13:52

TiP Since November, the reasons the EU (and some German & Irish politicans) were suggesting for 3 months were:

  • To give time to pass the WAIB, it the HoC passes the WA
  • To give the EU more time to prep for No Deal - they are further along than the UK, but still nowhere near ready, both business and govts - customs staff & infrastructure etc
  • To give the UK additional time to decide what changes it wants in the PD / future framework.

However, they now think the UK govt & Parliament are in such chaos, that they have suggested a 21 month rewind of A50,
to see if the Uk can decide on something else - basically dropping red lines for the SM + a customs arrangement

Problem is, as posted, the Tory party especially looks nowhere near ready for this
So currently looks like another 21 months of demanding cake
then ??

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 13:53

lonelyandtired The UK first has to request an extension - and it hasn't so far

The EU can't extend unilaterally

BigChocFrenzy · 25/02/2019 13:54

Olennas I wish Redwood & JRM would agree on whether these Brexit benefits will happen in 50 years, or right after 29 March

jasjas1973 · 25/02/2019 13:55

Isn't the idea of the 21 month extension to not only agree a WA but to combine this period with at least a start on the future trading relationship?

I doubt May will want this, as it means the momentum for another Public vote could grow.

Given how the £ has been rising, any extension pleases the markets, perhaps now is a good time to buy some euro's if you re going abroad?
EU/UK agree to continue trading derivatives ( a trillion £ industry) if there is no-deal, yet another mini deal to off set a no deal.

RedToothBrush · 25/02/2019 13:57

brexittime.com/2019/02/25/the-cooper-letwin-article-50-extension-proposal-how-long-for/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
The Cooper-Letwin Article 50 Extension Proposal – How Long For?

Yep. This is relevant and links to the rival Hart Amendment.

In theory they could go for a longer date and hope the Speaker gives time for both amendments, with Cooper-Boles going first and Hart following if Cooper-Boles fails.

Thus MPs vote for a long extension, but if that fails have the opportunity to vote for a short extension. Crucially it allows the HoC to state a preference.

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RedToothBrush · 25/02/2019 13:58

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
May’s new line is a deal is “within our grasp” each time she is asked whether she might have to deplane Art 50. And yet three separate ministerial sources have told me to ‘wait’ for the statement tomorrow. Clearly they expect movement, whatever she is saying publicly

Something brewing...

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RedToothBrush · 25/02/2019 14:01

And yes BCF I don't think the tiggers are prepared for an early election. That's why I believe an earlier election is now more attractive to both the tories and Labour Party for their long term survival to kill off any possible threat from the centre once and for all. Its in their mutual interest regardless of whether they win or lose that election.

The interests of the country are irrelevant. Party first.

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Peregrina · 25/02/2019 14:05

A GE would probably just result in a Tory overall majority, because Corbyn is toxic to many voters

They thought that last time, and the media was wall to wall with "I can't vote for Corbyn..." and May lost her majority.

I am certainly no fan of Corbyn, but I do question whether May would get her majority.