Westminstenders: The Rebellion

[RedToothBrush]

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

Off to look & find out who my MEPs are.

backtracking a tad to Chukka Umuna

• the political bods I have to deal with through work were of the view that there is some dirty laundry in his cupboard that would have left fragile family members at the mercy of the tabloids ( see what they are doing to Thomas Markle as an example )

and he did not want to become the story

Labour has widespread problem with antisemitism – Momentum founder

It may be that whether Labour politicians & members believe labour has a serious problem depends more on whether they are Jewish and less on whether they are hard left / left / Labour centrist than we thought

• that's understandable since ntbo, Jewish Labour members would notice it more.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/25/labour-has-widespread-problem-with-antisemitism-momentum-founder-jon-lansman

Jon Lansman says more party members than previously thought hold ‘hardcore’ opinions
.....
“The party trebled in size,” said Lansman, who is Jewish.

“Amongst those are members attracted towards conspiracy theories.”
< like "InfoWars" on the right >

He added: “The Tory party is a smaller party and an elderly party
and the role of social media in fomenting and spreading some of the poison is therefore more of a problem in the Labour party.”

I was trying to think of a previous Parliament this bad
and then I was reminded of the 1648 Rump Parliament,
formed after those MPs with any scruples or loyalty to the Constitution were arrested or excluded

_ Extending Article 50 and European Parliament elections_

HoC library - useful analysis of the legal side, options & timing

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/the-eu/extending-article-50-and-european-parliament-elections/

The Labour frontbench has indicated that when the Government’s Brexit policy is next debated by the House of Commons on 27 February,
it will supportt^ Yvette Cooper’s amendment to secure parliamentary time to debate a Billl^ providing for a vote on seeking an extension of Article 50, if the Government has not secured Commons’ approval for an agreement by 13 March.

< since the vote has been postponed to 12 March, will this amendment simply be changed to a vote on an extension ? >
.....
A general election would take up at least five weeks if based on a Government-engineered vote
or seven weeks if it followed a successful vote of no confidencee^ in the Government.

Organising another referendum might take considerably longer.
The UCL Constitution Unit has estimated that a referendum would take 22 or 28 weekss^ (depending on the question),
meaning a referendum in August or September if Parliament took a decision to hold one at the end of February.
....
One complication of extending Article 50 is that European Parliament (EP) elections are due to take place on 23-26 May 2019.

The newly elected EP will sit for the first time on 2 July. This means if Article 50 is extended until 1 July 2019 at the latest, there would be no need for EP elections to take place in the UK.
...
There have been differing reports as to whether the EU would accept the UK not holding EP elections,
with some reportss indicating the EU would insist the UK takes partt^ if its EU membership continued into July.

Depends what kind of figleaf Cox can dredge up from any letter coming out of the May-Juncker talks

John Rentoul Retweeted Tom McTague@TomMcTague

End game?

1. Cooper-Boles passes
2. Cox agrees deal
3. Withdrawal Agreement amended by Cox passes Commons March 12
4. May asks for "technical extension" March 13
5. EU agrees Cox-amended WA March 21/22
6. UK ratifies new WA
7. UK puts WA into law
8. Brexit May 1-June 30?

Yes we are back to the position where, even if we wanted the delay, we have to prove to EU what we are doing in the time given.

If it is more faffing it's in no one's interests. I suspect the WA will be the reason but what new thinking we are going to say we are doing (other than non-existent tech is very unclear.

Chukka (and I am merely speculating) has always struck me as being bisexual. I don't know why. If that's the case I wonder if he just thinks it would distract from his politics? As a country we don't seem to be as tolerant as we were 4 years ago, which would worry me if I had to come out now as a public figure. As I say, pure speculation though.

PMK

Can someone please draw out a flow chart on what can happen now? I am so confused as to what is going on! Pictures would help!

The most boring person ever

@jonworth is your friend.

He has a flowchart he updates.

I'll try and find his latest version for you.

twitter.com/jonworth/status/1099709682837610496

Here you go.

Or

jonworth.eu/brexit-where-now-the-flow-diagrams/

The EU suggested 21 months extension, because they realised that the UK Parliament, govt & country are nowhere near agreement on what future relationship the UK should have with the EU

The EU said they don't want to keep giving repeated 3 month extensions, as this would make it impossible for their own businesses to plan properly.

So either pass the WA within the next few weeks, or basically rewind and start again

BUT
A50 will still require a WA that handles the same basic 3 requirements:

• previous obligations: the exit bill
• ongoing obligations: GFA / Border, expat rights
• framework for future relationship: the PD - note framework only; the actual trade deal will take years of negotiations during the transition period after Brexit

If I was the EU right now I wouldn't agree to an extension to the end of June without holding MEP elections. Seems a big risk for them when we have shown we are so incapable of meeting deadlines and sticking to agreements.

I notice his flowcharts don't have any "UK ends up with No Deal" even though he has "UK ends up with May's deal"
He just has "No Deal Looms, chaos, ministers resign"

Too scary to write especifically ?
It remains about a 50% possibility, even now

bigly that may be why the EU has until now talked of a short extension only until 1 June:

so that if the Uk is still dithering in mid-May, the EU will warn the govt that they must pass a bill to hold MEP elections in last week of June, or it won't grant any further extensions

mother That new future framework will require the UK to drop its red lines on FOM and ECJ,
also restricting the kind of trade deals the UK can make with non-EU countries

e.g. a US FTA would be impossible,
because the US demands the UK drop its food safety standards and also gives the green light to far more NHS takeover by US healthcare firms.

The reason why we ended up with this WA is that May was forced by the ERG to make her Lancaster House speech ruling out the SM

Unless the UK agrees to drop these red lines before the EU gracnts the extension,
we are likely to spend those 21 months squabbling about the SM - wanting all the benefits, but wanting exemption from at least 2 of the 4 pillars.

i.e. 21 months squabbling about cake again
Pointless

Frank Field is backing the Hart Amendment.

{Unless the UK agrees to drop these red lines before the EU gracnts the extension,
we are likely to spend those 21 months squabbling about the SM - wanting all the benefits, but wanting exemption from at least 2 of the 4 pillars.}

Seeing how untrustworthy the UK has become the EU would surely demand a properly enforceable document of some kind to ensure the red lines of May are truly dropped.

The WA should have been the easy part - but because she panders to her extreme right they've all got stuck in a mess they can't get out of.

As she can’t even get the WA thro, there’s no way she or any PM will be able get Parliament to agree a deal. The Leavers camp is too diverse and deluded in terms of what they want, and the Remainers object to the whole thing.

The WA is simply a deferred No Deal, with a couple more years to prepare.

The reason why we ended up with this WA is that May was forced by the ERG to make her Lancaster House speech ruling out the SM

Nobody forced her, she made a free choice to pander to the headbangers. The impetus behind that speech was as much Nick Timothy if anyone.

Ah, TM on Sky News just now pointing out that the next meaningful vote is BY 12th march and not necessarily ON 12th March, let's see...

Robert Hutton
‏*@RobDotHutton*
Asked whether ministers who rebel on Wednesday will have to resign, May is clear that Wednesday is simply too far into the future to talk about.

The problems with the WA are exactly the same that will hold up any deal. CU vs not, SM, border issues etc.

21 months is nothing. If the WA is passed these arguments will run for the next 10 years - consecutive Tories and Labour governments shaping their desired respective deals and failing to get them thro Parl, then losing the election, until EU gets fed up and pulls the plug.