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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Rebellion

970 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/02/2019 22:43

This week is the start of another big week. Touted (again) as high noon. However the end of February marks a watershed in many ways. Parliament simply can not kick the can further. Its last stand time.

Three Cabinet ministers are openly saying back Cooper-Boles. They are joined by other ministers and intend to vote for it regardless of the government position. And will break protocol by refusing to resign to do so. This leaves May with the option of accepting it or sacking them.

The breaking of collective responsibility would be a bit deal. But May can not easily sack them. She simply has so little power left.

These ministers are backed by up to 100 moderates too. And with the emergence of the TIGGERS the mood has changed with others emboldened in their rebellion and arguably more likely to go.

Meanwhile Corbyn is losing even more authority. In what looks like a last ditch attempt to retain remain support in the face of the TIGGERS whilst also leaving to the point where it is realistic, noises are being made that Labour are about to back a People's Vote. It sounds symbolic rather than meaningful in anyway.

The antisemitic row, however, seems to be engulfing the party even further with MPs seen as Jewish, or not loyal Corbynites subject to intense amounts of abuse for being diplomatic or sympathetic in the face of resignations. The spectacle of Labour infighting has been laid bare in a very public way and it doesn't look healthy and is swallowing all column inches over and above any policy regarding either austerity or Brexit.

What this means for votes this week is important. The power of the whip on both sides of the house is completely fractured. MPs are more likely to vote with conscience than party lines than previously.

Where this leads us is now wide open.

An extension now looks all but inevitable. But for how long, at what price and for what ends ultimately in terms of a deal or no deal.

This noise seems very much at odds with other voices.

The Government itself, however, still seems to be planning to get WA legislation through parliament at the last minute at the end of March. (This would also involve May using measures which break parliamentary constitutional arrangements). And prominent leavers are suggesting that an extention will just kill Brexit off completely.

A GE is also very much looming. The TIGGERS emergence is such a threat that both parties will now possibly want it sooner rather than later (for slightly differing reasons). They will not want them to become established or prepared for an election. But calling an election now closes parliament and enables no deal by default. A GE after an extension or Brexit is a different prospect too.

Things are likely to get very busy this week. Time to brace once again.

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Clavinova · 24/02/2019 20:56

1tisILeClerc Sun 24-Feb-19

{The US-based Boston Consulting Group has received five contracts, worth £14.2m, to work with the Cabinet Office, Departments for Environment, Exiting the European Union and Business.}
The UK government, supposedly charged with 'running' the UK is effectively outsourcing large areas of government business.
Having got the USA involved with such 'intimate details' it would suggest to me that the UK gov has given up 'control' altogether, because once that data has been 'processed' in the USA it can't be undone.

LonelyandTiredandLow

1tisI that's how I read it.Massive data breaches and behind scenes deals between the two, back door for TTIP. Confirms our worries we are in step with the Trump leadership a little too closely.

You are both barking up the wrong conspiracy tree here.

Boston Consulting Group is a global management consulting firm (and professional services giant ) with over 90 offices around the world - in 50 countries.

Their London offices opened in 1970.

BCG have previously won contracts from: The German Federal Employment Agency, The Russian Agency for Strategic Initiatives, India's Public Sector, an unnamed government treasury agency in Asia...

www.bcg.com/industries/public-sector/impact.aspx

Clavinova · 24/02/2019 21:07

I posted before how UK airlines had their permits for "Carbon trading" suspended from 1 January 2019 and that this was a major reason why FlyBMI went under

And yet Glasgow-based company Loganair has already stepped in to take over five of Flybmi's routes from next month??

www.citmagazine.com/article/1526020/loganair-cancelled-flybmi-routes

BiglyBadgers · 24/02/2019 21:10

I'm just popping back to post a therapeutic picture of my sleepy black cat.

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 21:12

www.brightonandhovenews.org/2019/02/24/hove-mps-office-window-smashed/
Hove MP’s office window smashed

This chills me to the bone.

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1tisILeClerc · 24/02/2019 21:23

Clavinova
While BCG may well be legitimate my point was that sensitive data that should be handled by the UK government alone is being shared with others, indeed some who may not be future close allies. There are multiple agencies involved and with the likes of Ollie Robins 'accidentally' discussing things in hotel bars it hardly bodes well in terms of things remaining secret. The BBC article was suggesting that the American companies are being asked to 'provide data' for the UK.

Brexitisshit · 24/02/2019 21:42

Catching up, I was struck by the Jess Phillips tweet that was quoted some pages back - very unusual (and very welcome) for an MP to suggest revoke rather than just a delay or a renegotiation.

Clavinova · 24/02/2019 21:45

The BBC article was suggesting that the American companies are being asked to 'provide data' for the UK.

Is this the article?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47338534

They seem concerned about the eye watering cost of the contracts.

It's the British arm of BCG who have the contracts - BCG UK LTD.

This is the sort of thing they are commissioning...

www.cliffordchance.com/microsites/brexit-hub/briefings/Bridging-to-Brexit-Insights-from-European-SMEs-Corporates-and-Investors.html

EweSurname · 24/02/2019 21:53

Conversation

Steven Swinford
@Steven_Swinford
Exclusive:

Brexit will be delayed for up to two months under plans being considered by Theresa May to extend Article 50

No 10 officials have drawn up a series of options for PM ahead of crunch votes this week.

Extending A50 is among them

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/24/exclusive-brexit-will-delayed-two-months-plans-considered-theresa/

Under one option in No 10 paper being considered by PM she will extend A50 if a deal cannot be reached by March 12

It's a finely balanced decision.

Such a move would avert Commons defeat over Cooper/Boles, but trigger rage from Eurosceptics

PM is also considering another option in No 10 paper for a 'conditional' vote on AG's plans to ensure backstop is temporary

Reasoning two-fold - it would buy PM time for negotiations, and also give her negotiating capital with Brussels if it passes

The option being considered by PM does not say how long A50 would be extended for

But ministers have been discussing a two-month extension to the end of May to ensure UK does not have to take part in European elections

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Yup - matches what hearing too - Vote conditional, EU summit in March is hopeful ‘rubber stamp’ - which still might need six week ‘technical extension’ - IF nothing goes wrong before then .... and Brexiteers don’t go totally tonto beforehand and pull the plug - discuss

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 22:17

Clavinova "And yet Glasgow-based company Loganair has already stepped in to take over five of Flybmi's routes from next month??"

They will also not be able to carbon trade, because the EU has suspended this from 1 January for all UK-owned airlines

They must think their profit margin can withstand the extra costs and / or they think they can retain customers if they raise prices to cover it.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 22:21

Similarly, British Steel will also be cutting profits and / or raising prices, to cover the loss of carbon trading permits

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 22:22

Ah so Steve Swinford is reporting May WOULD consider accepts her hand will be forced to ask for an A50 extention.

What a surprise.

Newspaper time...

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 22:24

In fact, the loss of EU carbon trading permits applies to all UK owned businesses from 1 January 2019

Airlines and steel are merely the first 2 I have noticed in the press re this.

Any other manufacturing or other business that formerly participated in the EU carbon trading market will also be unable to do so.
Hence, there are probably more businesses to come that will experience these increased costs

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 22:31

More from Steven Swinford on front of the telegraph.

In addition to the Cooper-Boles amendment requiring an extension of A50 to take no deal off the table, there is now talk of the Hart Amendment. Hart is one of the Tory moderate Brexit delivery group. His amendment seeks an extension too but crucially it time limits an extention to 23rd May at the latest.

I find this curious and it will be interesting to see the choice of amendments by the Speaker.

If both amendments seek an extension would Bercow select both? If Hart is chosen over Cooper-Boles would it still get as much cross party support? How much cross party support does an A50 extention amendment need? Does it require the Labour whip if so many tories are planning to defy government?

Is this move manufactured in someway by No10 to save some face?

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 22:34

Think the times and guardian led stories more or less covered already.

Westminstenders: The Rebellion
Westminstenders: The Rebellion
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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 22:39

So it looks like the story is moving to an argument over how long the extension of A50 will be, rather than whether there will be one.

I note here, JRM comments a couple of weeks ago about how he recognised legislation for Brexit - whether it be for a deal or for no deal simply won't be ready in time for 29th March.

So there is a realisation within the ERG hardliners about this, its just that they don't really want to admit that we need to do the formality of asking for one. They want to make political capital over May's humiliation of having to do so, whilst pressing for it to be as short as possible.

I think the narrative of this week is largely going to reflect that, with strong words from the ERG but beyond trying to limit the length of the extension, not a lot more.

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RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 22:40

2 years says the Guardian
2 months says the Telegraph

That's the battle this week

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Motheroffourdragons · 24/02/2019 22:41

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 22:45

It depends whether MPs intend to pass the WA and hence need only a short extension to pass the the WAIB too
or
whether they want to completely renegotiate the framework - NOT the trade deal itself - of the future relationship, to say SM and a Customs Arrangement,
which would be the 21 months option

If they just want another 2 months to keep trying to water down the backstop, then they are just wasting time

BollocksToBrexit · 24/02/2019 22:52

Isn't an extension to A50 more unicorn tales? I thought the EU have already said it won't be allowed just so that Britain can continue arguing with itself. Didn't they say it could only happen if the WA was agreed but time was needed to implement it or for a substantial change in Britain ie a 2 referendum or an election?

BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 22:52

The leadership of the Independent Group of MPs: runners and riders

With current and expected future defectors being overwhelmingly from the Labour side, this almost certainly means a former Labour person as leader

It's looking like Chuka, with Soubry as deputy

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/independent-group-mps-leaders-chuka-umunna-anna-soubry-latest-a8793336.html?

Sostenueto · 24/02/2019 22:54

TM won't want any more jumping ship because of her slim majority. So she won't force anyone to resign if they don't vote for her deal. She puts party first before the country and I repeat she doesn't want JC to become PM. If I didn't think she is so very dillusional about her deal I'd say she's playing a great game of chicken and is likely to get her crap WA through by the skin of her teeth.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 22:56

Robert Peston@peston
I just witnessed something I never thought possible - which is @theresa_may playing pool against the Italian premier Giuseppe Conte. The PM has definitely shed inhibitions in pursuit of a backstop change, though I pray to god she didn’t wager our Brexit future on the game...

PS There is film evidence of this astonishing match. The reason I witnessed it is that Conte and his enormous entourage are seated at the table next to mine here in Sharm el Sheik and he was watching it back on his laptop. His security guards kindly didn’t taser me...

when I asked him and his advisers what it was, just to persuade myself it wasn’t a spoof.

And here is the movie of that historic pool game between @theresa_may and the Italian premier. #BreakingforBrexit
That time when May played pool

I think she might be better sticking to dancing..

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Sostenueto · 24/02/2019 22:57

Well I did say yesterday bigchoc it was between Chukka and Soubry neither of which I like. ( so much going on and fast thread so no one noticed my post I suppose)Smile.

RedToothBrush · 24/02/2019 22:59

Isn't an extension to A50 more unicorn tales? I thought the EU have already said it won't be allowed just so that Britain can continue arguing with itself. Didn't they say it could only happen if the WA was agreed but time was needed to implement it or for a substantial change in Britain ie a 2 referendum or an election?

I believe the position has shifted. And realistically it would be hard for the EU to refuse a request for an extension if we wanted one before the EP election or we said we were prepared for EP elections and wanted 2 years more.

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BigChocFrenzy · 24/02/2019 23:00

Bollocks No, the EU have for several months saying they would support an extension of some kind, rather than No Deal:

  • a short one if the WA is passed, to give time for the WAIB to be debated and voted on.
  • or a short one even if the UK just wants to dither more, to give the EU more time for its No Deal prep
  • or a longer one for a PV
  • or a much longer one if the UK drops some red lines, to renegotiate the framework of the future deal.
That's not renegotiating the key elements of the WA: expat rights, exit bill, NI backstop but outlining the kind of deal the Uk wants to negotiate during thr transition period