Westminstenders: Stuck in the Middle With TIGGERS

[RedToothBrush]

Well I don't know how we got here tonight.
We've got the feeling that something ain't right.
We're so scared as we leave the EU
And we're wondering how we'll get out of this stew

Antisemites to the left of me!
Dog Whistles to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.

'Cause I'm stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.
And I'm wondering what it is we should do.
It's so hard to keep this smile from my face.
Losing control and running all over the place.

Clowns to the left of me!
Jokers to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.

When you started off with rights
And you're starting to wonder if thats for life.
And all the politicians come crawling
Slap you on the back and say
Please . . .
Please . . .
Vote Leave and back EU Withdrawal

But we see it makes no sense at all.

Best to keep your money offshore
Than to visit the bookstore

Deniers to the left of me!
Islamaphobes to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle with you.

Its finally happened. FINALLY.

MPs have seen that their leaders have lost the plot and are hell bent on destruction and politicial ideology ahead of practicality and will justify the unjustifable in the face of democracy and they have jumped ship.

Enter stage left and stage right: The TIGGERS - members of The Independent Group.

Will there be more. Hard to say no. It seems almost certain there will be more.

Will it make a difference? Difficult to call, but these MPs would be driven out sooner or later. Such is our accelerating politicial polarisation and narrowing of views. This is their last stand. They have nothing left to lose on a personal level.

Whether you agree with the TIGGERS or still look to the other parties for policy, I do think that the emergence of the TIGGERS marks a feeling of optimism and much needed hope for many many Remainers / Moderates, even if it ultimately does fizzle out.

A reflection from 2017: People voted for Corbyn because they were looking for Hope. When he's failed to deliver that, its led to disillusionment and he can not pull the same trick again at a future GE. This makes that doubly so. People are STILL very much looking for that hope. If Brexit does go tits up in a big fashion, then what happens? To what direction do people look? I'm sure there will be the bitterest of recriminations, but... hope is a big deal. We need something...

Tick tick tick. 37 days til Brexit.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation

Sparkly I love it
DD(7) was busy telling grandpa how shopping would be "like it was in the 80's when you couldn't even get avocados and no one in the UK had heard of pasta" . She also thinks he was born the minute the war ended though, so added "it will be a bit better than when you had rations as a little baby...I hope, anyway. But no one really knows". It's all so matter of fact it makes you almost want to cry.

I've tried not to worry her but she couldn't exactly ignore the x3 plastic tubs full of extra food that sprung up near my desk!

Tom Newton Dunnn@tnewtondunn*

Excl: Cabinet ministers' ultimatum to PM - promise to extend Article 50 under No Deal or they'll vote for Cooper-Letwin next Wednesday;

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8474362/remain-ministers-theresa-may-must-delay-brexit/amp/?

Amber Rudd, David Gauke, Greg Clark and David Mundell named a new pledge from Mrs May to extend Article 50 talks as their price not to side with backbench rebelss_ during a new showdown with MPs in seven days time.

If the PM refuses, the senior ministers insisted they and 20 other members of the Government would press on with their vow to back Labour MP Yvette Cooper and Tory grandee Sir Oliver Letwin’s plan for Parliament to seize control of the Brexit processs_.

One Tory minister told The Sun: “The PM has a choice, and that was made clear to her.
“Either take no deal off the table by extending Article 50 or she will have to sack the lot of us, and still be defeated.”

BCF that's what I thought.

Realistically yesterday and that news tonight in the newspapers are possibly real game changers.

It was said that people needed to resign and potentially end their careers for her to take them seriously.

That's now happened with numerous serious threats from others.

The ERG can squeal all they like, the reality is she can't get a deal through with them because they have demonstrated they will not compromise.

She can get a deal through with Tory moderates and Labour rebels.

This is where the sheer stubbornness of the awkward squad may work against them as May has no alternative. If she no deals she fractures the party. If she extends and deals the ERG might split off, but they might not (note no resignations here!) but she gets her Brexit delivered.

Not sure if this has been linked to yet

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/i-m-exhausted-explaining-to-british-people-the-geography-of-their-own-country-1.3797959?mode=amp

....yet another Irishman living in the UK having to explain the history of Ireland within the UK and why it doesn't want to "just re-join" the UK and that no, he's not British

Lesley Riddoch (former BBC journalist and active Indy campaigner) posted the link on her FB and one of the comments included this picture of "the whole of Britain (shaded in blue), the rest just being the colonies"

Having said all that look out for the next slippery proposal by May to get out the shit.

Though I suspect she's reached the end of the line on that. High noon.

Wow! Its all going down then ( rubs hands with glee).

It's about time.

(Still not altogether convinced the attention span of anyone involved is enough to make a showdown happen, though.)

I don’t read John Crace as much as I used to. He’s still as brilliant- but I now struggle to even access gallows humour. But I did think this article was funny especially the reference to cockerpoos

“Gove was on rather more bullish form at environment, food and rural affairs questions in the Commons. Which was just as terrifying in its own way, because Gove’s confidence is invariably misplaced. The more he insists he has everything under control, the more you know it is time to panic. His answer to Brexit was the no-nonsense approach of talking up the value of rationing by promoting his planned wartime cookbook, complete with recipes for rotting vegetables and unconventional cuts of meat. The working title for the book was Tripe.

This caused some consternation for the Tory Giles Watling, who is under the impression there is a huge black market in dog and moggy meat. Watling has explored the nation’s underbelly and concluded that everyone is secretly hacking their pets to death and eating them. He even spotted someone in the big cat enclosure at Whipsnade Zoo, taking a quick bite out of a sleeping lion’s thigh.
The environment secretary offered only token reassurance. At times of national crisis, every pet should be prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice. Far better to die a free cockapoo than live a second longer as a slave of the EU.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/21/philip-hammond-the-eeyore-chancellor-anyone-got-any-ideas

lonelyplanet that made me.

Just heard a gaff made in HoC. About something scheduled for 29th February. I know we want extension on A50 but extending February?

Agree math.

Also the brave independent MPs website is now up and running.

They are trying to address the dysfunction in our politics - hope millions will support them.

Regardless of whether we're Labour, Tory or other and regardless of Remain /Leave stance these few are trying to defeat those with agendas that are not in the national interest.

Please support them.

www.theindependent.group/support/thank-you?support=submitted#supportForm

QT quite something. John Barnes was a voice of reason. Woman from spiked, reminded me of I Oakeshott. Bit of a baiter. The greatest working class vote ever, my eye. Can't work out if she believes that or just enjoying the giving everything a kicking, irrespective of the fall-out. Or excited by the prospect of the fall-out, like a hobgoblin. In any case, the irony of the mutual interests of people like Smogg, the Oligarchs and outright fascists coinciding with the most vulnerable being served by Brexit a bit of a reach. Propagandist or Useful Idiot?

I particularly liked when she went into the straw man of being outraged at John Barnes when he asked how voters could be expected to know all the ramifications of leaving the EU. Considering how most people in the UK (politicians inc) still don't know, or care, how the EU works? She started going on a la Oakeshott about how he was calling people thick and of course they could know in minutae everything that would happen. He was so honest coming back and just saying he must be thick then as he had no idea of all of the ramifications. Bit of rowing back by her, saying of course she wasn't saying he was stupid.

The greatest mandate ever by the British public, 'commentator' said. Yeah, right. The 61% of Labour constituencies and 75% of Con constituencies voting for Brexit being used as it sounds like a vote percentage. No mention of the percentage of the electorate who gave the mandate. The lesser part of one would hope that mindless audience gets exactly what they said they voted for. If employers pull out, that must have been on their crystal ball. If resources and services have to be rationed or reduced in any way, I do hope they will be the first to volunteer to do without. All the conscience free party partisans on the panel of course saying Leslie should resign. Well, they would, wouldn't they?

Barnes so impressive. Balanced and measured. The career politicos and baiting 'commentator', furthering agendas.

Dear gods - came across this beauty on Twitter from 1999, where Ian Paisley Jnr attacks all Ireland "in your face poofery" ..

This is the same DUP that is the tail wagging the Tory dog in 2019.

twitter.com/TRPNI/status/1098605485996101641?s=19

Re extension, isn't there an interplay with the next EU elections in all this? I understood an extension until June meant we'd have to be involved in the elections, field candidates pay into the EU purse for the next period and therefore effectively not leave for years?

I might be wrong on some or all of this - I heard it from my dad, though he has been involved in politics for 40+ years and listens to a lot of radio on it, he's the only person I know NOT bored of brexit discussions yet!

However unless he's got it completely wrong the length of any extension could have serious implications.

Grateful for anyone to give their opinion on this side of things please!

Yes - we'd have to have European Parliament elections in May to extend beyond the end of June.

Oh and most relevant perhaps my good old dad reported to me that farage is very incensed by the idea of delay leading to more elections and ultimately making the possibility of revoke a lot more likely

Any reliable sources on this also much appreciated

This was thought provoking in the John Crace article (on Hammond):

"He was beyond rational thought. Beyond decision-making. It was as much as he could do just to get out of bed in the mornings. Imagine what it was like going to cabinet and having to deal with halfwits like Gavin Williamson in the flesh. The rest was silence."

I know it's supposed to be humorous but there is a ring of truth to this in terms of the impact on the mental health of the sane members of government. I don't agree with his politics but my boss has had professional dealings with Hammond in one of his former ministerial roles and says he was conscientious, good at listening and good at detail.

The greatest working class vote ever, my eye.

Quite. Well. maybe. Take a man we know - plumber, early 40s. Never votes, didn't vote in Witney by election, didn't vote in GE. Didn't know how to vote for the Referendum so asked advice, and suggested that Remain would be best for him. Voted Leave anyway. Certainly not an informed vote. And no Leavers, I am not saying the man is thick, he's not, but he doesn't know much about politics and isn't interested, as 20 years of not voting shows. But apparently this sort of whimsical vote trumps all other Remain votes, from people who have almost certainly been voting for years and years.

Oh and most relevant perhaps my good old dad reported to me that farage is very incensed by the idea of delay leading to more elections and ultimately making the possibility of revoke a lot more likely

Any revoke beyond the end of June involving EP elections definitely opens the door to serial delays. Once there has been "proof of concept" future extensions will be easier to swallow on both sides.

This isn't true if the extension is a short one.

IMO a short extension means the EU thinks we're going over the cliff and just wants to make sure its preparations are shipshape. A longer extension has a decent chance of ending in no Brexit,

Callieach yy summary of Newsnight, John Barnes was indeed the voice of reason.

It’s a pity Anna Soubry wasn’t on, but I was hugely impressed by John Barnes. About the only person there who made sense.

Mistrigri I am not sure that's true. I have seen quite a bit of chatter speculating that whilst difficult it would be possible for the UK to extend longer without EP elections in the UK, but I confess I couldn't be bothered to read the legal technicalities.

George Trefgarne @ georgetrefgarne
1. People keep wrongly saying that if Cooper Bill passes (a massive if by the way, because it wii likely be delayed in the Lords), it is a conspiracy to delay Brexit. Not true, it just gives Parliament a binding vote

2. My guess is the amendment to all the Bill to be debated will pass (because half the Cabinet supports it). And this will enable the Government to itself delay A.50 at the 11th hour, if required.

3. The Bill itself is a bit of a red herring herring.

4. The reason this is significant is it enables the Government to corner the ERG: vote for the revised deal or A.50 will be delayed because that is what the Commons wants.

5. The ERG is itself split and the majority of the “official” Tory party is fed up to the back teeth with them.

5. However, the situation in the country is more complex. My guess is their stance is quite popular, but (and this is the critical thing), frequently among older Labour voters in safe Labour seats.

6. The geographical spread of voting is important. It is quite possible some ERG types could lose their seats at an election because moderate Tories and Lib Dem types won’t vote for them.

7. But “Midlands eurosceptics” could deliver some pro-Brexit surprises

8. It has been suggested the ERG could bring down the Government. Possible but I bet they don’t

9. It all hinges on Geoffrey Cox being able to revise his legal advice. Best guess is he will. But clearly lots of things could go wrong.

I think this is a good reflection and context. It's easy to think that all the Tories are just fine with the ERG or that bluekip is in their political interests. That just doesn't stack up. Amongst long term remain Tories who did still stick with the party at the last election because Corbyn is a bigger evil, I do think patience is still wearing thin. Growing apathy in this group could yet be still be problematic in some areas at the next election and TIG produces a lot of unknown factors. Both Lab and the Cons squeezed the LDs out at the last election by framing it as a straight choice between the parties. This capitalised on the feeling that the LDs couldn't be trusted or were just plain uninspiring. Both parties saw the centre vote as the key one and the one they also feared.

The power of the centre has gone away. But the trick that was pulled at the last election that it was either them or us I don't think holds power. TIG are actively spelling out the message to their natural voters that both Labour and the Tories are currently both as bad as each other, are enabling each other and are both hell bent on destroying the country with their ideological bullshit. And its compelling cos, well quite frankly it's true.

This scares the bejesus out of the moderate Tories. They have been more vulnerable to the LD vote than Labour at the last two elections but have managed to win that. If that switches to TIG out of frustration they are in trouble. The same threat holds true with Labour to a certain extent but that centre vote is more of an unknown quantity in Labour seats - tuition fees were a gift to Labour but with that toxicity gone, all bets are off. The Tories perhaps fear it more because they have a better idea of the scale of that threat from previous experience.

Interesting times. But I'd say that TIG are having a big effect purely from existing. And they are going to continue to get a lot of media coverage for this reason too.

Which is why Farage is going to do a lit of jumping up and down like a Loon if the tables are turned and he's not getting the attention he thinks he deserves.

Truth is though is he's now irrelevant because JRM has ursped his role.

Oh and I should say that as of yesterday it's too late to hold a GE before 29th March.

LonelyandTiredandLow your story about your DD reminded me about when some young relations stayed with us in the early 1950s and horrified my grandmother by living off spaghetti and marmite. Could it catch on again?