Westminstenders: Stuck in the Middle With TIGGERS

[RedToothBrush]

Well I don't know how we got here tonight.
We've got the feeling that something ain't right.
We're so scared as we leave the EU
And we're wondering how we'll get out of this stew

Antisemites to the left of me!
Dog Whistles to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.

'Cause I'm stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.
And I'm wondering what it is we should do.
It's so hard to keep this smile from my face.
Losing control and running all over the place.

Clowns to the left of me!
Jokers to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle whilst we leave the EU.

When you started off with rights
And you're starting to wonder if thats for life.
And all the politicians come crawling
Slap you on the back and say
Please . . .
Please . . .
Vote Leave and back EU Withdrawal

But we see it makes no sense at all.

Best to keep your money offshore
Than to visit the bookstore

Deniers to the left of me!
Islamaphobes to the right!
Here I am stuck in the middle with you.

Its finally happened. FINALLY.

MPs have seen that their leaders have lost the plot and are hell bent on destruction and politicial ideology ahead of practicality and will justify the unjustifable in the face of democracy and they have jumped ship.

Enter stage left and stage right: The TIGGERS - members of The Independent Group.

Will there be more. Hard to say no. It seems almost certain there will be more.

Will it make a difference? Difficult to call, but these MPs would be driven out sooner or later. Such is our accelerating politicial polarisation and narrowing of views. This is their last stand. They have nothing left to lose on a personal level.

Whether you agree with the TIGGERS or still look to the other parties for policy, I do think that the emergence of the TIGGERS marks a feeling of optimism and much needed hope for many many Remainers / Moderates, even if it ultimately does fizzle out.

A reflection from 2017: People voted for Corbyn because they were looking for Hope. When he's failed to deliver that, its led to disillusionment and he can not pull the same trick again at a future GE. This makes that doubly so. People are STILL very much looking for that hope. If Brexit does go tits up in a big fashion, then what happens? To what direction do people look? I'm sure there will be the bitterest of recriminations, but... hope is a big deal. We need something...

Tick tick tick. 37 days til Brexit.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation

Oh and I should say that as of yesterday it's too late to hold a GE before 29th March.

Phew. So the ERG don't get their default crash-out.
I don't think any of the parties can really afford a GE since the coffers are a bit bare since last time and in many areas Local Elections are coming up.

I think there are only four ways May can realistically stop an extension now.

1. Revoke
2. No Deal which would technically now be deliberate even if 'accidental' through the effect of Cooper-Boles
3. Parliamentary shut down by triggering of a GE - which would have to be enabled by Labour and would cause accidental no deal.
4. By getting her deal through, though this may not stop an extension now anyway because the WA needs a shit ton of other legislation to get through parliament before 29th March which is frankly pretty much undoable at this stage.

Thus I find it very hard to conclude we won't get an extension of some description. The details of that are the next battle to be had. And that's one the EU has to approve...

Phew. So the ERG don't get their default crash-out.

Not strictly true. They could try to trigger one but it would fall after 29th March. The dilemma in there for Labour is that enables no deal by default.

So any Labour MP wishing to stop no deal would HAVE to vote to support May to stop no deal!

Yes I know. But it's possible that the ERG will try it on, purely for the spectacle of it and to try and show the Labour Party up and drive further wedges in the cracks showing in the LP.

So I guess it's a pretty likely scenario to occur from that POV.

So the UK has had nearly 3 years to decide what it wants and still hasn't, so now it (probably) wants an extension so it can fart around a bit more.
Bodes well for the hard graft trade dealing that is coming up in a month's time. Especially as it is being 'arsey' about the EU, USA, China and Japan.

I'm just not sure that EU sees it as important that we have an extension? They are preparing well for a no deal and have more money and stability than us to do well even if we drop out. They will not then have to deal with us messing up their elections, extra cost of keeping us dallying about indefinitely using up a time frame that surely works both ways (i.e they are planning for 29th March so certain things like companies who were planning to trade elsewhere rather than sending lorries to us to get stuck). There must come a point (I think already gone) where they simply think a month or two for us comes at a disadvantage to them? I see it as them thinking about ripping off a plaster rather than death by a thousand cuts. Yes we will blame the nasty EU but tbh we've done that for nearly 3 years on a global stage so another month of that won't hurt (better now than in their elections) and then it will be on OUR govt to actually start sorting things out. They will be free of us and the media will have to focus on those in power.

Up to the EP election would be relatively easy to get as an extension although having more uncertainty is obviously undesirable but would give a bit more preparation time for the EU.
Once into the EP voting and so on would be far more tricky. There could be a possibility that new EP 'management' could take a much harder line on the UK and take active steps to 'persuade' the UK to leave.

Should TIG ex-Cons and the ones who say they won't automatically take the whip, now ask for their 1billion? To support the gov't on some issues. It is not as if votes aren't openly being bought by gov't. Their constituents (actually all constituents ruled by Westminster) should be asking for their whack.

It is really broken, isn't it? Cash being doled out for support. Some have already engaged with other higher bidders, allegedly. Maybe even ones outside the country. Again, allegedly.

I'm also uncomfortable with the idea we can kick the can down the road and hope somehow we don't Brexit. Although I obviously wouldn't choose to we do have to remember this isn't just about politics but social change that has happened in UK. Leavers aren't suddenly going to be fine with us staying because we choose to delay and it will take the attention off the failure of our govt again and make them think back to why they want to leave. It will reinforce all of the stuff that they have been banging on about for years. Far more dangerous than a planned but disorderly Brexit. I also don't think 2 months would make the slightest bit of difference to our Govt who frankly haven't got a clue what they are doing. It will be used to politic and not actually prepare.

Ian Austin is leaving Labour but according to Sebastian Payne will not be joining the TIGgers.

Has to turn off QT last night as soon as that woman from spiked magazine started baiting Chris Leslie. Curious about what spiked was turns out it started off as 'living marxism' magazine but is funded by the Koch brothers (dodgy right wing billionaires) and is now regarded as extreme right wing. Probably explains her stance !

Simon Covent absolutely emphasised that the back stop will not be altered or removed. Saying no deal can only be took off table by UK.
Ian Austin ( labour) leaving the party but not joining independent group. He only has a very slim majority in Dudley North. Never heard of him.

What a bloody mess

For the UK to become reasonable citizens of planet earth, Leavers and remainers have to reconcile their differences. Not happening any time soon.

Lonely, what would a planned, but disorderly Brexit look like?

As I suspected, Ian Austin doesn't support a PV and supports May's WA. His resignation is more to do with Corbyn's lack of leadership.

*simon Coveney deputy Irish leader.

Cailleach1 we don't know. But we have known the date for nearly 3 years so we can't say it wasn't planned. We triggered A50. We know it will be disorderly, yes, but more so than if we wait 2 months? I doubt it. A delay just means we get riots and more emotional crap about EU. Delay would be perceived by EU as a sign they need us more than we need them and the Euro would suffer. It will anyway, but surely they would rather it wasn't because of us?

For the UK to become reasonable citizens of planet earth, Leavers and remainers have to reconcile their differences. Not happening any time soon.

No while emotion rather than dry practicality rules the roost.

*delay would look as though EU needs us more than us them - to the world - and the Euro would suffer. We know it will anyway (not as bad as Sterling I suspect) but why bolster those rumours and uncertainly by tying themselves to an anchor for 2 months?

Another unknown blaming Corbyn. If he felt so bad he should have had the guts to go ages ago when at the party conference that decided labours agenda.

As I suspected, Ian Austin doesn't support a PV and supports May's WA. His resignation is more to do with Corbyn's lack of leadership.

So TIG will be framed as pro-EU. But I suspect that whilst not a TIGGER he will work with them on a lot of things - like Frank Field (who was already doing stuff with Heidi Allen).

Funded by the Koch brothers. Everyone has probably seen the Rutger Bregman and his conversation with CNN. On foot of Davos. Unflappable Dutchie.

twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1098282209834950657

Fox, Fox. Not CNN.

Still he's got his 15 minutes of fame.