Westminstenders: Oh Look is that a fire in the Italian Capital?

[RedToothBrush]

Next stop: 27th Feb.

Where we will apparently have Cooper-Boles II which apparently will pass but still assumes that
a) the EU will grant us an extension despite our fuckwittery
b) that it will prevent accidental no deal, which it doesn't
c) glosses over the minor point that the only way to 100% prevent no deal is to say you'll revoke if everything else fails

Meanwhile in reality we leave in law on 29th March, despite the rest of the law having zero chance of being ready in time. Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal alike.

All that is actually happening is the Tories and Labour fighting amongst themselves. Corbyn is still pretending that Brexit isn't really that important and hoping it will just go away. May is still trying to compromise with the ERG - whom if you paying attention 18 months ago were obviously were never going to compromise on anything - cos they are fuckwitted swivel eyed loons.

Meanwhile the entire country has no other alternative but to assume no deal and act accordingly.

A deal on the 21st March (as is the planned date of the Meaningful Vote) is simply too late for planners. For them no deal has already happened even if it does never come to pass.

The strategy of brinkmanship has destroyed us. We just don't know it yet.

A Split in the Tory and Labour parties may well make matters even worse going forward with further political polarisation.

Where next for Brexit?

Who knows and does it even matter now? The damage is irreversible and will take at least a generation to heal wounds. Economically it may never be recoverable.

FUKD.

That daily fail article was out a day or so ago but there is a VERY cute polar bear cub picture on the fail website. As the bear is in Berlin I saw the same bear when looking at German papers.

I still can't find the secret report that TM agreed to publish detailing 'No Deal' fallout.

It is bugging me now.

Oh and one of the friends I was out with said she had spoken to her dad about it as he Lectures in Agriculture and went to a large conference about No Deal Brexit. She said he didn't seem too worried and that lamb might actually be cheaper, but she may want to buy tinned tomatoes as they are going to be harder to source . I think he may have been a leave voter as he didn't agree with CAP.

Solewindow I can't see the Spectator article because of the pay wall, but an article in The Independent certainly suggests that as far as UK law is concerned (as opposed to European law), it's not entirely clear that TM can just revoke - it sounds a grey area as to whether she'd need parliamentary approval:
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-cancel-stop-revoke-article-50-explained-remain-stay-eu-latest-parliament-theresa-may-a8690886.html
Sadly, I suspect this is academic because all the indicators are that she would rather go for no deal than revoke.Even if the HoC passes motions rejecting No Deal, that's what will happen on 29th March.

missbel

"In desperation, the government might try to revoke the Article 50 notification, fearful of hurtling unprepared over the metaphorical cliff edge on March 29. Here though they would run into the argument that, as only an Act of Parliament could authorise sending the Article 50 notification, parliamentary authorisation would be required for revocation. Moreover, it is arguable that revocation is inconsistent with the Withdrawal Act.

Government lawyers will, of course, have powerful ripostes to all of these arguments. In a sense, however, that is not the point. Brexiteers will hope that their legal challenges simply freeze the machinery of government long enough to effect a no-deal Brexit by automatic operation of law on March 29."

Paul Daly, Senior Lecturer in public law, university of Cambridge

Thank you Solewindow . I think Paul Daly's conclusion is right.

There's another petition for a second referendum which has over 1million votes. I don't suppose anyone in the government will take any notice but there's nothing to be lost by trying. : www.change.org/p/theresa-may-mp-give-people-a-final-say-on-brexit-deal

"Theresa May plans to speak to all 27 EU leaders"

How many times has she said that?

How many times has she done that?

And what result has she got?

What's one of the definitions of madness? Isn't it doing the same thing again and again and expecting a different result?

inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-deal-11th-hour-cabinet-minister/

They are all playing games until High Noon arrives.

Games with our lives.

And this business woman on Question Time is correct. It is not slimy little shxts like Rees Mogg that will pay for any fallout.

inews.co.uk/news/question-time-erg-brexit-deal-vote-audience/

Friend in the Netherlands says they have Brexit adverts on TV telling them to prepare.

Given HMG have contingency plans to slaughter in transit sheep in the event of no deal I might expect a few months of cheap lamb/mutton - after that - who knows - margins are so tight, loss of this year's profits will shrink the base - from then on all bets are off.

I'll be marching simply because a smaller march than last time will be ammunition for brexiteer spin.

Don't actually care if the ukip/brexiteer extremists try to cause trouble - surely part of the reason we are not being listened to is that the tories are more frightened of brexiteers than remainers so a ruckus actually helps.

Part of what needs to happen though is the current crop of tory mp's need to believe that that they will be blamed when no deal chaos ensues? (ponders suitable wording for letter to my payroll vote mp.)

Thread in aibu on the march

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3510642-AIBU-to-think-that-if-our-elected-representatives-can-t-decide-the-people-should-have-the-final-say?watched=1&msgid=84994257#84994257

I am just hoping we all wake up on April Fool's Day and its like a Bobby Ewing/Dallas moment, it was all just a bad dream? Cant go on the march, DH will be finishing his cancer treatment round about then, but I would love to, and kudos to those who do.

solewindow The ECJ said only that Revoke must be "according to Uk constitutional requirements"
Govt legal opinion before A50 Invocation was that the PM could invoke or revoke A50

The only reason the govt lost the case wrt Invoke was because the courts said Parliament must approve because citizens rights would be lost by leaving the EU - specifically FOM

However, Revoke would not lose any citizens rights, in fact it would retain rights that Brexit would lose.

Hence all the legal opinions I have read - except from a few Brexiters ! - is that the PM can unilaterally Revoke.

That is probably the main reason why the ERG desperately tried to topple May with their 48 letters and No Confidence vote last December:
They have never trusted her and they have always feared she just might Revoke at the last minute
A very small chance, but they wanted to remove her - and the risk - if they could

I expect that if the PM did Revoke, Brexiters would bring a court case that it was invalid, but that they would lose.
Also, in that case, imo the HoC would just want the whole Brexit issue to go away

(and - to avoid a crazy legal mess - they would vote to repeal the Act that made the UK no longer bound by EU law)

bigchoc

I really really hope you're right!

Politically however, it is v v unlikely the PM would Revoke without prior consent of the HoC - in fact without them voting to order her to do so.

Even though the reason for Parliamentary consent being required for Invoking does not apply,
politically it would be very difficult to explain why Parliament was required to Invoke, but not Revoke

Just like the referendum is advisory, but regarded as politically binding

Also, she would want to avoid the nightmare of a disputed decision
since Brexiters would probably bring a court case to have her revocation declared invalid

I'm going on legal opinions I read after the ECJ decision
It could be that the legal bods have had 2nd thoughts since then.

However, imo if May did decide to Revoke, she'd ask the HoC vote on it, because I don't think she has the moral courage to take the decision on her own

In fact I don't expect her to try to Revoke, because it would tear the Tory party apart - and imo she would rather the country was ruined than that

I worry that an extension to A50 will be hard to come by but it's being bandied about as if it's simple.

Why would the EU agree to extend by more than days? At the moment I don't think even a few months would make much difference. The government can't seem to win any votes so how is TM ever going to convince the EU27 that she has a support - even if she scrapes through meaningful vote she still needs to persuade EU that she has a reasonable chance of getting WAIB through too and I imagine there could be some wastage between the two?

Every day I'm increasingly bemused and depressed in equal measure that a large number of supposedly intelligent people - who also happen to be the 'party for business' - continue to take the country down a path which will destroy the economy on a most likely permanent basis. All because they've decided that the party's needs trump the citizens' needs. It totally beggars belief. I'm so fucking angry at the lot of them. How dare they do this?

NoWord I feel exactly the same as you, it beggars belief & if after this shitshow is ever resolved, I hope to fuck they never ever spout that they are the party for business, it’s a disgrace & what really annoys me is seems to be very little debate on brexit that is truthful across most of the media, the lies & manipulation is an affront to everyone of us.
I

I worry that an extension to A50 will be hard to come by but it's being bandied about as if it's simple.

Why would the EU agree to extend by more than days?

If we are still stuck in the mire then the only reason they will allow an extension is because it behoves them i.e gives them more time to prepare for no deal. They may well decide that they are prepared enough and let us go over the edge, if they see no advantage to themselves and do not believe a short delay will bring about any meaningful change in Britain.
That's entirely down to them and we'd have to ask to find out.

If - however - there was movement in Britain some kind of direction taken, whether that is voting through the W.A and needing time for the W.A.I.B or the promise of a people's vote or the promise of a GE (where the entire purpose isn't just to run the clock down) then they have already pretty much said they will agree. They don't want no deal. In an ideal world they would prefer remain. They will do what it takes to prevent their neighbour becoming a basket case, if it seems reasonable that prevention is possible.

But if the govt are going to ask for an extension it is important that they know exactly why they want it and what they hope to achieve by getting it.

The comment about cheap lamb - brexit will destroy farming, and then if trump gets his way - won't recover as we will be flooded with cheap, poor quality product from the states. So yes meat will be cheaper - the the standard much much lower.
I mean meat for the masses..... there will always be those who can afford the "single farm", "grass feed" "rare breed" meat - but what would that be ? About 5% of the population (I think I am being v generous about that number)

You can't produce lamb cheaply in the places where British lamb is produced. And you can't really do anything else with that land either. If sheep farming becomes uneconomic for hill farmers, then that land won't be used for farming at all.

Talks with Japan going well. Apparently a letter from Fox and Hunt was so 'high-handed' Japan nearly cancelled a week of talks. And cold water has been poured over the idea of us joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

I can't think of any reason a trading block would pull a face at the prospect of the sovereign obsessed UK joining them... Can you?

solewindow Here in Germany, political opinion has long been strongly in favour of an extension if requested,

However, over the last month, hope for Remain has vanished here and they now just hope for an organised Brexit, instead of Britain crashing out in chaos

And they want it to be over - patience has long run out.

So any extension would probably only be until 1 June, for the WAIB to be passed, or a bit longer for a PV
Possibly just to give them more time for their own No Deal prep

There would not be an extension to renegotiate a new WA - the WA is closed, except for cosmetic changes
There would not be an extension to negotiate the future trade deal - that can only happen during transition

The HoC should stop fantasising about ideas that the negotiators discarded many months ago

Either vote for a PV within the next 2 weeks, or approve the WA
Otherwise, it's almost certainly No Deal