Westminstenders: Oh Look is that a fire in the Italian Capital?

[RedToothBrush]

Next stop: 27th Feb.

Where we will apparently have Cooper-Boles II which apparently will pass but still assumes that
a) the EU will grant us an extension despite our fuckwittery
b) that it will prevent accidental no deal, which it doesn't
c) glosses over the minor point that the only way to 100% prevent no deal is to say you'll revoke if everything else fails

Meanwhile in reality we leave in law on 29th March, despite the rest of the law having zero chance of being ready in time. Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal alike.

All that is actually happening is the Tories and Labour fighting amongst themselves. Corbyn is still pretending that Brexit isn't really that important and hoping it will just go away. May is still trying to compromise with the ERG - whom if you paying attention 18 months ago were obviously were never going to compromise on anything - cos they are fuckwitted swivel eyed loons.

Meanwhile the entire country has no other alternative but to assume no deal and act accordingly.

A deal on the 21st March (as is the planned date of the Meaningful Vote) is simply too late for planners. For them no deal has already happened even if it does never come to pass.

The strategy of brinkmanship has destroyed us. We just don't know it yet.

A Split in the Tory and Labour parties may well make matters even worse going forward with further political polarisation.

Where next for Brexit?

Who knows and does it even matter now? The damage is irreversible and will take at least a generation to heal wounds. Economically it may never be recoverable.

FUKD.

My thinking is:
There is no political will for extension/revoke/ remain

BUT

A historical 230 vote defeat plus a vote against continuing TMs course of action on Thursday tells me there is also no political will for the W.A

There is no political will for no deal BUT that will be automatic unless opinion shifts between now and the 29th March. So it is our job as the electorate to try and shift that political will. Considering there is no will for either extension or the W.A and we have to shift them massively in one direction in a short amount of time - why on earth would we push for the direction that we don't actually want?

I also think that mps refusal to vote for the W.A is due to personal distaste of how crappy it is. I think, however, that there are enough mps who refusal to vote for extension is down to cowardice rather than distaste. Cowardice is easier to combat than personal distaste - because we don't have to change their minds - just show them support. If they believe that 'the will of the people' has changed they'll bend to that. But if the 'will of the people' is for a W.A that they don't like because its so crappy they'll still baulk at voting for it. After all - as everything gets worse under the W.A (which we all know it will) they will be blamed for voting for it. Remainers because they knew it was bad and should have voted extension/ pv and leavers because they will think brexit has been betrayed.

If enough of us push for extension/pv - we still probably won't get it but if the W.A is passed then the mps know that public feeling is for a soft brexit/ remain and might shape the deal based on that (assuming that competent grownups then take charge - which I for one, do not take for granted).
If we tell them to just vote for the W.A they will spin that as support for brexit and then be left as directionless as before - and will probably go either v hard or just walk away.

It makes sense - right up until the very end (and beyond) to be telling the mps what is is we actually want. Because you certainly won't get it if you don't make it clear.

Tony Blair and other people are suggesting no deal because it will bring about an emergency rejoin. This is cavalier and careless of them and I respect people here's desire to avoid no deal at all costs because of the way it will impact on the most vulnerable. But no deal does seem pretty inevitable - and I think emergency rejoin is more likely to happen if mps feel there are a large number of people out there who would support it. Like - say - the people who emailed to tell them they wanted an extension and a final say vote.

The EU is not constitutionally or legally able to 'sort out' the massive governmental failure in the UK. The EU is more about quality of life for it's citizens rather than monetary control, although of course they are closely linked. The EU cannot prevent what will probably happen in the UK but the WA is one of the best ways to ensure that the people of the UK do not suffer as much as is probable by the UK crashing out.
Obviously not having started the process of leaving would have been ideal but it should have been turned around within a few weeks of the referendum if serious damage was to be prevented. While it is not all about trade and industry, the competitive mechanisms by which they run NEED as much certainty as possible. I would suspect that at the point where A50 was triggered, the path of much of the UK industry was decided. Wishing for PV/revoke/whatever is no good now, the damage is done.
Even at basic MN level, there are countless threads where my 'partner' snogged/slept with someone else, and from then on the relationship is doomed, Brexit is pretty much the same, just bigger.

I am a non EU immigrant to the UK
I am a mother
I am beyond incandescent at what our elected representatives are doing.

The May elections will be very, very interesting.
Especially as Brexit will bite hard during Purdah
so damage limitation of the message will be severely constrained.
I hope that both main parties are SLAUGHTERED at the polls and that UKIP are wiped out.

I think, however, that there are enough mps who refusal to vote for extension is down to cowardice rather than distaste.

Well .... The HoC "voting for an extension" is in the same league as "Voting to repeal gravity" - it's something out of their gift. The EU is only ever going to deal with the properly assembled UK government anyway.

My view is the only thing that might secure an extension is a change if UK government. Specifically a change not a re-elected Tory minority government egged on by the DUP.

We can safely ignore anything that happens in Westminster from now to the 29th March, because it won't change a damn thing. If you like things in cinematic metaphors, this is the scene in Terminator II where Miles Dyson (yes, brief woo moment) is holding the weight over the detonator of the explosive rig in the Cyberdyne headquarters. As the police storm in they realise that nothing is going to stop that weight falling and setting off the explosives and (using a Mythbusters phrase) de-ass the place.

If someone can press a button to display a clear path from today to 29th March which encompasses something other than no deal, then lay it out here and now. But - like all conspiracy theories - you'll find yourself adding little twiddles of "if" and "maybe", whereas it's blue squares all the way to no deal.

You know how as Remainers we continually pressed Leavers for examples of lost sovereignty, or logical reasoning for certain Leave assertions ? Well this is a reverse ferret. Can any remainers provide a clear example of why we aren't going to crash out with no deal ? Because this one can't - despite it being what I'd want more than anything.

There is an underlying slur against men on MN by some which is totally disgusting.

Do you mean people question what men are doing on MN at all? Or that men who make clear that they are men are more harshly treated when they post here?

No Deal is far too dangerous politically, as well as the risk to meds & food for the poorest

A big concern over No Deal is that if we really do have an economic meltdown

• mass unemployment, shortages / v high food & med prices -

then support for fascism could soar
with an authoritarian chrismatic leader probably coming to the fore

Hitler would only have been another thug with a ridiculous moustache if there hadn't been an economic breakdown in Germany which caused formerly comfortably off people losing everything

• that's a different dynamic to a country that's been poor for centuries.

So Blair's cunning plan for a quick Rejoin after a No Deal shock could go the way of his other cunning - and ruthless - plans

{There is an underlying slur against men on MN}
The unsubtle 'White men are to blame' or similar comments casually slipped in.
The Westminterenders threads are infinitely better than most others of course. The MN 'strapline' says 'By parents for parents'.
The fact the UK is being driven off a cliff by a woman with a 'death wish' is overlooked although there are no other obvious leaders available to get the UK out of this mess.

There is an underlying slur against men on MN by some which is totally disgusting.

It's fascinating in some threads (Relationships mainly) when some posters point out that the response/advice being given would be completely different had the OP been of the opposite sex (i.e. female).

What is even more fascinating are the subsequent justifications from the called out posters

For the record, I can't say I've particularly noticed any real bias here. And if there were, it would be hard not to feel like a Boswell to MNs Johnson ...

Boswell said: “Indeed I come from Scotland, but I cannot help it.”

To which Johnson replied: “That I find is what a very great many of your countrymen cannot help.”

DG fwiw, My current assessment of chances:

5% . Remain (1% May revokes last minute, 4% we get a PV & Remain wins)
25% . WA (HoC blinks in March)
70% . No Deal (the ERG always wanted this; the rest assume the EU will blink, or just can't swallow their pride & vote WA)

I may be overly optimistic, as I had a delicious brunch at my fav Rhine cafe; it's a gorgeous sunny day and I'm off now for pump class & a soothing walk along the Rhine

Men are great ( most of the time), especially those on Westminsterenders as it happens.

But haven't we got more important stuff on the go than to have a squirrel diversion at the mo over any worries about unfair treatment of white men. (Unless of course that is seen as yet another of the multi factors that led to this mess in which case we need to address that too- sigh.)

Mother A quick Rejoin during the WA transition is always possible

• the EU spokesman said they would do a Fast Track Rejoin, instead of the long process That's rejoining during a situation when things are trundling along much as now

No Deal would be a totally different situation:
economic meltdown, political chaos & violence - the various E27 intelligence services predict very grim times

We'd be a dangerous basket case, maybe a timebomb
and the EU learned from the E European countries accession that they should wait in future until prospective members are stable before letting them join

We'd likely be much poorer
and a country of 65 million is much harder to support than say the 5 million of Ireland

• also, as with Greece, there will be reluctance from other countries to shell out for problems the UK caused itself.

We need to realise how bad No Deal could be, economically and politically

It could close off future options that are still possible to choose during WA transition,
whether that be Rejoin or just an SM+CU Brexit

A reasonably stable country suffering a WA recession would still be welcomed;
an economic & political basket case would be kept at arms length

25% . WA (HoC blinks in March)

Nope, can't see it. My MP (for example) is not ever going to have the conversation with constituents about why they voted for it, having explained in excruciating detail why it's a piece of shit and voting against it twice. That's got fuck all to do with Corbyn or the Labour whip - it's what they have to stand by.

Still no direct line other than to no deal .

Ôf course, No Deal could also be much better than we fear
and if it doesn't go on too long, things could be tolerable enough

However, that isn't the short sharp shock that the ruthless Blair wants, to catapult us back into the EU.

I’m a mother and grandmother - I do a lot of grandchild care - I have a couple of not at present very serious health conditions (that could well worsen) and I have family with health issues. I live in the UK. I think the WA is the least worst option that’s in any way feasible at present. (I don’t think Revoke or a PV are possibilities and that a PV could be very dangerous.)
As to the May elections - I too would like to see both main parties taken to the cleaners, but not sure what the electorate will do - they might just stay at home, having given up on politics.
BTW George Orwell in his essay England Your England I linked to upthread described our electoral system as “an all but open fraud”.

DG No Deal is an easy route:

The HoC does nothing - one of the few options within their skill set

All other options depend on them - or May - deciding to be brave and do something

A reasonably stable country suffering a WA recession would still be welcomed; an economic & political basket case would be kept at arms length

Which do you think the ERG and fellow travellers want ?

Of more interest, right now, is what will big business do after 29th March ? Because an awful lot of CEOs and their ilk will have got the message loud and clear that all that bung-money over the past few decades has been pissed away and counts for nothing (if it did, we wouldn't be here ...).

I return to my suspicion we'll become the Zimbabwe of Europe by 2025. Although it wouldn't surprise me if the one thing a UK government manages to bring in under budget and ahead of schedule will be the diminuation of the UK.

This is comforting....

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/16/david-gauke-expresses-grave-concerns-about-no-deal-brexit

one of the few options within their skill set

DGR I think no deal is pretty much inevitable. I don't believe there is a clear path to avoid disaster nor do I believe that there is the courage or even the gumption in the HOC to take it.

But I also believe that, despite the inevitability of the disaster - even because of the inevitability of that disaster, the messages we send our elected representatives are important. It is important - for history if nothing else - that we keep on telling them that we do not want this and it is not happening in our name. It is important that we pay attention to what they have already done, lies they have already told - and understand how what we say to them will be spun against us so the blame does not stick to them. Support for the W.A - no matter how reluctant - is support for brexit and those advocating it will be added to the percentage of people who just 'wanted them to get on with it'. But no deal will still happen. So ultimately - actual advocation, rather than just grim acceptance that it might happen, of the W.A is sacrificing principle for absolutely no gain.

And I addressed the problem of the HOC not being able to demand an extension pages and pages ago. No - the EU might not grant it. But having already voted to delay brexit, in order to prevent no deal, it makes the chance of revocation rather than no deal slightly higher - because they have shifted the overton window.

We'll still end with no deal.
Doesn't mean we should just give up.

This is comforting....

is there an emoticon missing ?

I'm afraid it's a load of shit. The second I read that he supports extending A50, I can dismiss all the rest of that waste of words. He doesn't get it. In two ways ... He doesn't get to "extend" A50 (that's up to the EU now) and he doesn't get that he doesn't get that.

His ship sailed last year when Theresa May won the confidence vote.

(Apologies if I missed some irony ...)

“I actually think, when it comes to it, she will know the disaster that a hard Brexit would be for the British economy and I don’t think she’ll do it,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Week In Westminster.

“No government can stand by and watch a country plummet earthwards because of a political dogma of a minority, which is what the ERG [European Research Group] are and the people that are pressuring on that end.”

Harrington said he would back moves to give parliament the power to take no-deal Brexit off the table at the end of the month if it seemed likely the UK would crash out of the EU. He added that he could resign to back the amendment if necessary.

“There are a significant number of us who feel the same and I think the chief whip and the prime minister should know that. We don’t make the noise of the ERG but that doesn’t mean … we’re not there.”

Well maybe I'm mis reading it but it implies that there is a group of MP's that will get together to stop No Deal.

That doesn't stop me being white hot angry for those needing medicines, losing businesses, jobs, reliant on the NHS using food banks, anxious about being with loved ones, losing their home and so on. However my fervent belief that it can be stopped has now faded.

yes, I very much am also on this page with lonelyplanet. I have to say I feel arguments about whether the WA or no deal is better are academic when the WA is clearly never going to get through parliament unless it is significantly changed in a way that will get labour supporting it. As May will never do this as she has tied herself to the ERG that's that really. The WA is really no longer on the table, it has been spirited away and all that that is left is a fading afterimage.

I have also reached the point where I can't see any evidence that MPs are listening to anyone anymore. They seem caught up in their own reality, their own political landscape and nothing we say manages to make it through the walls of Westminster any more.

I am now putting my energies into planning my future on the basis that there will be no deal. I am already starting to negotiate my return to Uni in September as that would guarantee my income and job stability. I'm also looking into shifting to a slightly different course with would potentially leave me in an even better position for looking to leave the country in the future. If we weren't in this situation I would probably just get a nice little part-time job and look after my sanity, but I need to look out for my daughters future and that means a job that will still be there even in hard times and having the opportunity to move if we need to.

Extending Article 50 is not in the power of the UK Government.
And the EU would only allow an extension if there was a sound reason
being unable to get a vote through the commons will not cut it
so unless there is a revoke
I can only see no deal
which is shit