Westminstenders: Oh Look is that a fire in the Italian Capital?

[RedToothBrush]

Next stop: 27th Feb.

Where we will apparently have Cooper-Boles II which apparently will pass but still assumes that
a) the EU will grant us an extension despite our fuckwittery
b) that it will prevent accidental no deal, which it doesn't
c) glosses over the minor point that the only way to 100% prevent no deal is to say you'll revoke if everything else fails

Meanwhile in reality we leave in law on 29th March, despite the rest of the law having zero chance of being ready in time. Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal alike.

All that is actually happening is the Tories and Labour fighting amongst themselves. Corbyn is still pretending that Brexit isn't really that important and hoping it will just go away. May is still trying to compromise with the ERG - whom if you paying attention 18 months ago were obviously were never going to compromise on anything - cos they are fuckwitted swivel eyed loons.

Meanwhile the entire country has no other alternative but to assume no deal and act accordingly.

A deal on the 21st March (as is the planned date of the Meaningful Vote) is simply too late for planners. For them no deal has already happened even if it does never come to pass.

The strategy of brinkmanship has destroyed us. We just don't know it yet.

A Split in the Tory and Labour parties may well make matters even worse going forward with further political polarisation.

Where next for Brexit?

Who knows and does it even matter now? The damage is irreversible and will take at least a generation to heal wounds. Economically it may never be recoverable.

FUKD.

The EU wants 'certainty' as much as it is possible because if you know what the situation is you can plan and work around it and hopefully resolve it.
The UK seems to have a paranoid mentality that the EU is 'a nasty mean organisation wanting to take over the UK'. This is simply not true although to achieve the true aims of the EU, peace and prosperity for as many as possible of it's members does require a bit of 'letting go'.
In some ways it is an act of faith, but seeing that underlying everything is the wish for all to live our lives to our best potential and happiness it is a necessary compromise. Laws and regulations discussed by the very diverse range of countries which can be agreed by all are likely to be pretty well thought out and voted for. Of course they won't suit everyone. Germans would probably be much happier not subsidising some other countries but they see that having prosperous and stable neighbours is the way forward.
The EU is not treating the UK badly and more than that, if the UK was staying in, and another country was leaving instead, no doubt the UK would be saying the EU is being too lenient.
Extending A50 is not good at all as there is absolutely no evidence that if it had say a 2 month extension, that the UK would actually use that time productively, but in the meantime businesses would be killed off, making the situation far worse.
The UK needs to leave on 29 March as scheduled preferably with the WA signed off as it is, and on 30 March some realistic grown ups from the UK need to sit down with the EU negotiating team and hammer out a mutually beneficial plan. This will of course take at least the 2 years of transition, probably considerably more, but during this the EU will negotiate happily.
Yes UK industry is probably buggered, it is now already, just waiting for the 29 March axe to fall. Companies that need to move will just leave, as they have already planned. The UK gov does not have enough money to bail out all industries at once and with the showing of the last decades has no intention on doing this sensibly anyway.
The EU cannot afford to wait another year or more while the UK tries to create a strong stable government, the EU has far bigger problems to deal with, so having the WA and transition declared and in transition is the 'best' of a bad job. The UK is deluded if it thinks it is the big 'I am' but you probably need to stand outside the UK and view it from a global position. This is not doing the UK down, just reality. Sadly the UK, in collaboration with the EU achieves great things but that is being trashed.

Couldn't see this posted yet - new centralist party with those we've already mentioned looking to join up. DD suggested purple as their colour but Kippers have that. Sadly when I suggested pink Grandpa said "you won't get many Conservatives defecting to a pink party". Regression continues...

Just marking place & catching up, does anyone think it is worth contacting MPs & asking them to support the Cooper/Boles amendment, I’m just becoming increasingly scared now & very worried about my dd her Dh & dgd, they bought a slightly larger flat last year & have been struggling with the larger outgoings, we help as much as possible (pay nursery fees, buy all her clothes, help with groceries) but if food prices other outgoings really increase, we won’t be able to help as much.

So, the worst case of the WA is not good, but it's much better than No Deal Brexit

This is known.

Unfortunately extremists are running the government, the opposition, the media and other organs of the state.

It is looking a bit sticky.

dont yes contact MPs to support amendments. Worth checking their voting history, mine did back the last Cooper.

As I've posted before, failing to negotiate a trade deal during WA transition is NOT the same as a No Deal Brexit:

The backstop would be activated - that's the whole point ! - and why the ERG so bitterly oppose the backstop

Is there absolutely no way we could crash out? Like - if they just walked away and decided to go WTO and ignore the backstop before the transition period was over?

The UK has been consistently 'undiplomatic' in most negotiations for over 2 years, there will be a point where the EU snaps and simply says 'bugger off' (but diplomatically!).

Isn't that pretty much what Donald Tusk did!?
I don't know about you lot on here, but melen, I've been finding my MPs have got more and more useless over the last 20 years or so. On any issue that is in the public eye they do nothing more than quote party lines at me. I know the party lines fgs, I am usually contacting MPs because I disagree with them totally! I have been complaining about the absolute rule of parties over British politics for years as a result.

In the purifying hellfire that will follow this March 29th, perhaps we can get whips abolished too. That was one thing I used to admire about the Greens, they refused to use them (or did).

much better than No Deal

Short term WA is much better than No Deal but there are arguments around that if we're deal'less after the transion we'll actually be worse off than no dealing now.

No deal or WA life is going to get interesting...

Is there absolutely no way we could crash out

We crashed out when Liddington lied about the legal parameters of advisory ref, @50 was unilaterally triggered by May, with no constitutional or legal mandate and when the WA was passed.

It's just taken a while for people to cotton on.

In other news, I see children have been arrested and kettled by police horses in the pro environment demonstrations in Westminster this afternoon.

Brexitty.

As far as I can see lonely the new centerist party is still just a lot of hot air like the Tory cabinet members who keep saying they'll resign if it looks like no deal. There is a lot of talk about a lot of people doing a lot of things, but I no longer give them much credence until they happen. So until a party is registered and MPs have formally switched I'm not going to get excited about it.

No deal or WA life is going to get interesting...

get interesting...please don't tell me this is the boring bit?

{Isn't that pretty much what Donald Tusk did!?}
Mr Tusk's comment was very carefully crafted and came after the UK has refused to negotiate in a professional manner for over 2 years during which it has forced the EU to shell out many billions of Euros.
You have to consider that the European Parliament has had to endure the bollocks spouted by Farage over many years, deliberately causing disharmony in the EP.

Bigly yes the timing is too late to be any use and the idea there is the option of taking no deal off the table or revoking is sadly showing up their naive thinking from the get-go.

However, if we do ever get another GE I do think there would be a large appetite for such a party.

pretzels Any country can theoretically walk away from any treaty it has signed, but this very rarely happens, because any country doing this becomes an international pariah

BUT
The UK would face immediate sanctions from the EU - probably punitive tariffs - possible legal action in the ICJ (international court of justice)
probably sanctions too from several non-EU countries, including all the Anglosphere that Brexiters adore so much

In particular the US, due to the powerful Irish American lobby, could slap down the UK worse than during Suez

So, very unlikely, because the consequences would be so dire

No trade and an international pariah .... the UK would quite seriously be in danger of becoming a total basket case, banana republic territory

bigly sorry I should have typed increasingly depressing not interesting It's going to go on....and on....and on...Even if I understood nothing I would want revoke just to stop it going on...and on...

(Was it you who posted cat and jacket a few pages back? Great work on the jacket it looked fab! Also cat was cute.)

I'm putting on weight from the comfort eating.

Otherwise known as Brexit contingency planning - building up your reserves. 😉

Some random thoughts:

1.The ERG and pals will be off counting their money from betting against the £. Yes

So I can see that the delightful 50 MPs or so and their mates will make money from the fall in the pound. Millions of millions in some cases.

Others will be cushioned by taking Redwood's advice and moving money overseas.

But 50 MPs isn't enough to achieve the permanent low corporation tax, low regulation, low wage exploitation economy they want. So where are they logically headed with it all?

1. Thought this article was good.

" ; I also bear some responsibility, as the head of an organisation that urged our 150,000 members and 12,000 restaurants to vote leave."

Boris Johnson ...said if we were to support the leave campaign, they would ensure we were able to get more chefs from south Asia by relaxing immigration rules with lower salary thresholds to hire staff from outside the EU. We made the mistake of believing them..

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/15/brexit-lies-curry-vote-leave-restaurant-industry

Hazard Sorry, but that's rubbish
No Deal is much worse than the WA, even if the backstop is invoked.

I know people desperately want Remain, but don't lie about the WA - like the ERG is doing

JRM called it a "run alliance" between the ERG and Remainers to attack the WA
When you're allied with JRM and the hard right of the Tory party, you really need to think why

You don't have to believe me- Listen to what EU leaders like Tusk, Merkel, Macron are telling you

Remain is almost dead
Fine if we see a chance of a PV, let's grab it

But do NOT try to kill the WA just for the 1-2% chance of Remain
That would just be helping JRM & co to achieve No Deal

Well my first foray at family conversation failed miserably.

Gave the Porsche example as DF likes to talk about cars. Apparently 10% extra tariffs on everything would be a good thing because 'we could all start to build & buy British cars etc.' No comprehension for jobs, parts made elsewhere, the future.

This is what I'm dealing with.

{get interesting...please don't tell me this is the boring bit?}
The 'party' hasn't even started yet, there's a good 5 years to come and we are just at the 'aperitif' stage.

Very difficult for you, littlespaces trying to debate someone who is frankly an ignorant fool
Brexit is rule by Dunning-Kruger

Charles Darwin:
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge"

He is ignorant, he is a fool but he is also a wonderful father and grandfather. So it is very complicated.

I am stuck between my young adult children who would like to vote Remain (too young last time) and a father stuck in a 1970's Empire time warp. He never admits to being wrong either.

Aaaaargh.

bigchoc I'm not lying, I said there's arguments around suggesting a WA without a deal after 2 years is worse...because its a slow bleed then fast. James Patrick has talked about it on Twitter if you don't believe me. I'm not saying I agree or disagree but the argument exists.

I'm not saying it for the 1% chance of remain I'm saying it because we have to be realistic about everything. There's unicorns abound with WA... I'm not at all certain it's much better than no deal i think it's more likely slightly better because it has a backstop and that's it.

The EU are being advised to no deal, if the alternative will damage the union. This idea they will grant us a deal at the last minute is nonsense. Yet that's what the UK are gambling on. It is a flawed basis of too many political assumptions being made by British MPs.

And that's ultimately make no deal likely

I'm guessing if we left on whatever deal or no deal that some trade agreements would be struck and we would lose other things to Europe.

Brexiteers will focus on the retentions and whitewash the losses. That is exactly what my DF is already doing.