Westminstenders: Oh Look is that a fire in the Italian Capital?

[RedToothBrush]

Next stop: 27th Feb.

Where we will apparently have Cooper-Boles II which apparently will pass but still assumes that
a) the EU will grant us an extension despite our fuckwittery
b) that it will prevent accidental no deal, which it doesn't
c) glosses over the minor point that the only way to 100% prevent no deal is to say you'll revoke if everything else fails

Meanwhile in reality we leave in law on 29th March, despite the rest of the law having zero chance of being ready in time. Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal alike.

All that is actually happening is the Tories and Labour fighting amongst themselves. Corbyn is still pretending that Brexit isn't really that important and hoping it will just go away. May is still trying to compromise with the ERG - whom if you paying attention 18 months ago were obviously were never going to compromise on anything - cos they are fuckwitted swivel eyed loons.

Meanwhile the entire country has no other alternative but to assume no deal and act accordingly.

A deal on the 21st March (as is the planned date of the Meaningful Vote) is simply too late for planners. For them no deal has already happened even if it does never come to pass.

The strategy of brinkmanship has destroyed us. We just don't know it yet.

A Split in the Tory and Labour parties may well make matters even worse going forward with further political polarisation.

Where next for Brexit?

Who knows and does it even matter now? The damage is irreversible and will take at least a generation to heal wounds. Economically it may never be recoverable.

FUKD.

(Sorry I meant “beat the stash of fabric” :-)

Distractions over ... assuming no deal is the intention and it happens, what then ? In particular for NI/RoI ?

{Distractions over ... assuming no deal is the intention and it happens, what then}
I have been attempting to get anyone to speculate what happens on 30 March onwards in general terms. Of course the ERG and others will disappear chortling and counting the money but there is no actual plan for what happens to the UK. So far all the government preparedness notices say IF the UK exits with no deal. I am waiting for the ones that say either WHEN there is no deal, or any that might say what happens during a transition period (of which NONE so far).
The UK only got on as well as it did in WW2 because it started preparing over 3 years in advance.

No one knows.

No one.

The erg and pals will be off counting their money from betting against the £.

Everyone else?

Fuck knows.

DG No Deal will be be due to cockups & cowardice by May & most MPs and putting party before country.

Only 50-80 MPs actively want it and have been conspiring to get it
However, they have intimidated the others and conned them that concessions could buy them off and preserve party unity.

There are far too many stupid, ignorant & cowardly MPs who are not fit to be in the HoC

LeClerc It will be "if" right up until 11 pm on 29 March
because as we've seen on this thread, most Brexiters - including MPs - believe the EU will blink at the last moment and make importatn concessions.

So what will happen if the HoC don't blink by 29 March and approve the WA ?

• 50% chance then that May might request an extension - half the Cabinet would insist
  She might miscalculate the amount of notice she needs to give for unanimois consent, or the EU could agree among themselves beforehand that they would grant it and let the Commission immediately approve any request

• If she doesn't, then the country will be reliant on its emergency plans < gawd help you >

Don't expect the EU to do any more than the contingency plans it has published
They won't ride to the rescue

Mind you the Withdrawal Agreement isn't that great an outcome.

Even if soft Brexit goes through It could STILL end in a massive tangle by 2020.

+ 50% chance then that May might request an extension

1. she won't
2. the EU wouldn't grant it anyway as it would achieve nothing. Fool me once, etc.

I think TM will up trotters and one of the ERG will do a leadership bid. In my worst nightmares this will be when the emergency powers come into play and we are trapped with Mogg or similar at the helm.

DG yes, Nixon and his war on drugs was a complete masquerade for turning the narrative to racism. Billy Halliday was treated appallingly. What with the mirroring emergency powers, abortion rights, words like cockroaches used for refugees and general far right stance of the ERG, I am thinking this is what a lot of the devious men of the world have been working towards. Beam me up!

I don't think Mogg will stand for PM - he doesn't do commitments, sniping from the sidelines is more his preferred means of operating.

{2) the EU wouldn't grant it anyway as it would achieve nothing. Fool me once, etc.}

The UK has been consistently 'undiplomatic' in most negotiations for over 2 years, there will be a point where the EU snaps and simply says 'bugger off' (but diplomatically!).
Insulting the Japanese PM last year will have been noted too.

I agree with you about Rees-Mogg, Peregrina

I still believe her running down the clock strategy will mean we end up with WA. Which I will take over No Deal any day of the week. There is no other Tory who could either get the support of the party for a leadership bid or who has the balls.
And Corbyn is a waste of space.

I have a hand cranked singer in an case just like the one in prettybird’s photo on which I learned to sew plus an all singing and dancing modern one.

Could the WA (after two more years of bickering and fallout) end up in No Deal anyway? If some MP's veto a customs union then that puts us back in 'No Mans Land' again at the end of two years.

I would be very happy if this isn't true but I have a sinking feeling.

Yes - Mogg doesn't do responsibility

He's quite happy to transfer the blame responsibility onto the shoulders of others

On the basis that the WA isn't really a 'deal' anyway but more a list and suggested path for the UK to leave but in the short term maintaining things as they are (so no panic) but with everything to play for and with strong competent negotiation* can vary in outcome between 'not quite in the EU to being a brisk and firm 'out'.

*Stop sniggering at the back!

Could the WA (after two more years of bickering and fallout) end up in No Deal anyway? If some MP's veto a customs union then that puts us back in 'No Mans Land' again at the end of two years.

Yes, the trouble with backing down and accepting the W.A for fear of something worse is that it is a clear cut case of 'if you tolerate this ... then you're children will be next.'
If we back something - that has no clear outcome other than we will be worse off than before - because they hold a worse alternative over our heads then all we do is tell them that bullying tactics works. The next time, they will want something bigger and something worse - and they know we will capitulate because we did it before.
The W.A might be slight short term security but it is death by a thousand cuts and could lead us to a very dark place indeed.

In the end the mps will have to do as their individual conscience dictates. And that might be a last minute acceptance of a dreadful and harmful withdrawal agreement. Time is a factor and their hands will be forced by realism. But I'm certainly not going to contact my mp - or any of them - and ask for them to vote for it.

We - the people - have no say in what happens - so of course we should be holding out for the best outcome.
Hard decisions, which will cause harm anyway, are for the people in power. Those of us without power should be sticking by our principles - because they are pretty much all we have left.
We need to be telling our mps that they need to vote for the cooper/boles amendment - or anything else that extends article 50 - and from there they need to be pushing for a final say vote on the deal - W.A/ remain. We need to be telling them what we actually want. Not what we will put up with under duress. That just gives them more fuel to treat us even worse down the line.

What the MPs then choose to do is down to them - but as our only power lies in our ability to vote them out, we need to be telling them that if they allow us to brexit whilst we are still so woefully under prepared - and with no clear idea as where we are headed next - then they will be punished at the next election*. That is the only language some of them understand and the only thing some of them care about.

(*if there ever are any other elections and brexit hasn't completely broken democracy for the foreseeable future. But we are more likely to get new elections in the future if we extend article 50 than if we accept the W.A at the last minute or if we crash out. )

PMK

Now to catch up

DG, LeClerc The word from Germany and the EU generally is that they would agree to an extension until 1 June, even if it's only because the UK need more time to dither

That's already been decided, because the EU wants to show it's going the extra mile and also because they still hope the WA would be signed.
In fact the EU would like extra time just to prep for No Deal

However, any extension after 1 June would probably only be approved if it is to have a PV of the WA vs Remain,
or possibly for a GE

As I've posted before, failing to negotiate a trade deal during WA transition is NOT the same as a No Deal Brexit:

The backstop would be activated - that's the whole point ! - and why the ERG so bitterly oppose the backstop.

This would keep all the UK in the Customs Union and following the trade-related Single Market terms: workers rights, environment
Trade would NOT be frictionless, but it would at least be free of tariffs, quotas and Rules of Origin

Probably either the transition would be extended yet again to avoid invoking the backstop, or negotiations would continue after the backstop has been activated

So, the worst case of the WA is not good, but it's much better than No Deal Brexit

Thanks for those answers. It had been bothering me.

with everything to play for and with strong competent negotiation

We are doomed with WA too then.

Found this for my family! Although they will ignore me, but at least I will have tried.

www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/list-of-brexit-lies

As Tusk has said very plainly to Remainers, Revoke has hardly any political support and they no longer think there is a chance of this happening

A PV also has insufficient HoC support, at least atm

So the chance that we will get a PV and then that the public will vote Remain is very small

The chance that May will Revoke at the last minte to avoid No Deal is imo about 1%^

So, get real:
the WA is the only option actually on the table that avoids No Deal.
Anyone campaigning against the WA is just helping JRM get No Deal

The EU have said if we wish to rejoin during transition this would be Fast Tracked
However, currently they are telling us they see no chance of Remain - basically begging us to get behind the WA !

Littlespaces As I posted, the WA is far worse than Remain, but far better than No Deal