Westminstenders: Oh Look is that a fire in the Italian Capital?

[RedToothBrush]

Next stop: 27th Feb.

Where we will apparently have Cooper-Boles II which apparently will pass but still assumes that
a) the EU will grant us an extension despite our fuckwittery
b) that it will prevent accidental no deal, which it doesn't
c) glosses over the minor point that the only way to 100% prevent no deal is to say you'll revoke if everything else fails

Meanwhile in reality we leave in law on 29th March, despite the rest of the law having zero chance of being ready in time. Withdrawal Agreement and No Deal alike.

All that is actually happening is the Tories and Labour fighting amongst themselves. Corbyn is still pretending that Brexit isn't really that important and hoping it will just go away. May is still trying to compromise with the ERG - whom if you paying attention 18 months ago were obviously were never going to compromise on anything - cos they are fuckwitted swivel eyed loons.

Meanwhile the entire country has no other alternative but to assume no deal and act accordingly.

A deal on the 21st March (as is the planned date of the Meaningful Vote) is simply too late for planners. For them no deal has already happened even if it does never come to pass.

The strategy of brinkmanship has destroyed us. We just don't know it yet.

A Split in the Tory and Labour parties may well make matters even worse going forward with further political polarisation.

Where next for Brexit?

Who knows and does it even matter now? The damage is irreversible and will take at least a generation to heal wounds. Economically it may never be recoverable.

FUKD.

Littlespaces - I presume your df can afford a McLaren then, which is going to be the saviour of the British car industry (according to one of the ERG members can't remember which one ) as it is planning on changing to sourcing all its requirements from within the UK.

McLaren production:

DG, LeClerc The word from Germany and the EU generally is that they would agree to an extension until 1 June, even if it's only because the UK need more time to dither

The UK chose the game to play. I would be surprised if that wasn't "for public consumption". I really can't see any appetite in the EU for any extension after the UK has demonstrated it's position so clearly - these guys have access to our media after all.

I am also busy laying down fat for the coming harsh times...

I'm taking it very seriously.

I thought that would be the answer and this is my problem Bigchoc - I do not trust them not to walk away. I do not believe that, with the tory party in charge, and the ERG in the driving seat that they could care less about the consequences or about making the UK an international pariah. They are rich and the consequences will not touch them. The worse Britain crashes the richer they become.

Advocating for the W.A is putting trust in people who have proven over the past 2 and a bit years that they are not trustworthy.
Like I said - if we tolerate this - let them do this with our blessing - then we open the door to them doing worse. Believing that they will suddenly play by the rules - when they haven't for 2 and a bit years - seems very naive.

Now - we have no power over what they do. This comes down to the mps personal decision. But as people with no power we should absolutely be telling them what we do want to happen and making it clear we do not trust them.
I can be realistic about what is likely to happen and still refuse to capitulate. Being able to stand by principle is a privilege of having no power. Mps face a harder choice and I don't envy them. But I'm not going to make it easy for them and tell them I'm OK with the W.A when they have proven time and again that they can't be trusted to negotiate our deal properly.
The truth is there are other options. They might be at 1% chance of likelihood and I am realistic about that - but they are not unicorns in the sense that they CANNOT happen. They are legal, reasonable and doable - the only thing lacking is political will. But emailing an mp and telling them to back the W.A only reduces that likelihood, whilst meaning that brexit is now being carried out in my name. Whereas emailing them and telling them to support amendments to extend article 50 means that they get a clear message of where support really lies and maybe shift the position of political will. It's a long shot to hope political will will change enough in 43 days (though still not impossible) but given time and encouragement enough mps might shift to an extension. That then gives us time to play for something better. And worse case scenario it doesn't work but we're no worse off than we are right now - they will vote for the W.A or not as their own tastes and conscience dictates - and one day they may have to answer why they didn't extend or revoke, in an inquiry.

If the people throw their weight behind the W.A there is nothing to answer for ... but meanwhile people who cannot be trusted and who do not have our best interests at heart and who are proven incompetent are out deciding what happens to us all for generations to come. And any decision they make - no matter how terrible - we have to live with without right to complain because we told them they should accept the W.A. They did as they were told - and now they have free reign.

Accepting the W.A is trusting the government. I don't.

Yes pretzels everything you just said as well!

Absolutely pretzels!

Absolutely.

And thank you for marching yesterday x

I presume your df can afford a McLaren

That is the stupid thing. He is on a tiny pension and could afford diddly squat. He is also quite reliant on me. Other family members would be hit hard in their jobs.

And yes - the EU might not grant that extension. BUT ... if the mps have declared no deal so dire that they are willing to extend to avoid it, and if we are facing no deal because the W.A will not get through ... it actually makes a last minute revoke ever so slightly more likely. Because the goal post will have shifted that little bit.

And even if it doesn't make revoke more likely we're still no worse off than we are now

Great post Icantreachthepretzels
If 27 other countries can't trust this one, how can we.

Brexit is a criminal project, and villains aren't to be trusted.

I recommend the Browder interview posted yesterday on this thread.

And. No matter how logical, it would appear from functioning countries, to pass the WA, it still remains the case that it is logistically and politically impossible for it to be passed in Britain.

Bit of a mess.

Baffled town halls ordered to plan for Brexit 'without knowing what it is
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/baffled-town-halls-ordered-plan-15838753?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

If Manchester doesn't know what Brexit is, how can we?

I share concerns about life with the WA.

If we end up with the WA the ERG absolutely will spend the next 2 years complaining that the EU ruined brexit and arguing we should walk away even if this does mean leaving us an international pariah. They will spin all sorts of nonsense about how we are so important and the EU so awful it will all be fine.

Of course if the Tories weren't in power and we had leadership in both parties wiling to tell the ERG where to stick it than this wouldn't be so much of a problem. With May hanging on and her potential replacements even worse, plus labour in a bloody mess...well that's a different story. There is a real risk of them brewing serious discontent at least and possibly if one of them ends up as PM doing the unthinkable. After all that's what their doing now.

I'm not saying this because I don't think the WA is better than no deal. It really is, but it is not without risks and with the current state of our politics and parliament I don't thing it'll be without a lot of problems.

But I still think we're going to no deal anyway, rather than end up with the WA, so...

What a lot of typos...

Several more years of Nigel Farage.

Shoot me now.

Hazard All opinions are not equal.

I have far more faith in the analysis of the EU leaders than I do in someone like Patrick

• he's a good writer, but he is not an economist or a trade expert. He has no experience in running an economy or a country and infact he wouldn't know where to start

He does not have the background to predict or even understand what will happen after a No Deal Brexit, or after the WA.

The analysis here in Germany by mainstream politicians and economists has been highly professional, as in the EU commission.

Read what THEY say, not what your favorite Remain writers & journalists say - they certainly have an axe to grind.

You need to distinguish between those who write about Brexit to try to change opinion
and the EU leaders who are actually making decisions about how to cope with Brexit.

Their advice - amazingly united among the 27 countries, the EU Commision and the European Parliament- is to pass the bloody WA !

I've not kept up today as we have been playing outside making the most of the sunshine. I did a bit of gardening (dug up dandelions and told gobsmacked daughter you could eat them and make coffee from the roots. It was lovely to be outside for once after so many cold, grey, damp days.

I'm finding all this middle of the night insomnia is making it impossible to stay awake much past 9.30om. In fact tonight I would quite happily have slept at 8.30 when the small one fell asleep.

For all those suffering the same, I've found earplugs help because I'm not woken by sounds outside or kept awake by them once disturbed by my bladder (the joys). It's as though the lack of sound enables the brain to be less alert if you do wake up and therefore get back to sleep more easily. My aching knees are usually the cause of me waking I think and then it takes an hour for the painkillers to kick in sufficiently for me to sleep again. I'm trying extra painkillers and deep heat tonight to see if that helps. I can't take much more of this lying awake for 2-3 hours in the night. It's worse than having a dc breastfeeding in the night and is making me very unproductive in the day as so tired.

Hope everyone gets a decent night.

As you were

Their advice - amazingly united among the 27 countries, the EU Commision and the European Parliament- is to pass the bloody WA !

Sorry, but you haven't got a clue how it is here, at all.

This is not a functioning democracy right now.

Nothing can be passed.

We are lucky every day that pro democracy activists aren't hurt. There's worse material, but I am not going to post it.

inews.co.uk/opinion/i-want-to-see-gina-miller-hung-politics-is-now-defined-by-nastiness-and-abuse/

I heard yesterday that DHL, the logistics / delivery people, are recruiting hundreds of new customs brokers in anticipation of no deal Brexit, so that they can manage the significant increase in customs paperwork for shipments going into and out of the UK.

Well, I thought, there's one silver lining. The first time I've heard of actual plans to create real jobs as a result of Brexit. I knew there had to be something positive to come out of it.

Oh, steady on. Not so fast.... The jobs will all be in Costa Rica

All opinions are not equal

What a strange thing to say.

Pretzels Sorry, but now you're sounding paranoid.

Breaking the WA is breaking international law
becoming an international pariah

(The GFA doesn't actually specify no goods borders, because it never considered Brexit -so it would be tough to bring a legal case re the GFA )

We can get paranoid that the ERG would start breaking other international laws:
locking up opposition leaders, shooting them - where do you stop ?

The fury of the ERG over the WA is precisely because they don't dare flout international law so openly,
not against such powerful opponents ....
basically most of the developed world

The UK would be subject to sanctions and punitive tariffs from the EU & several other blocs & countries
Even from the US, even if Trump is still there in 2021 or whenever

The UK has been slapped down before by the US in particular, even when the ruling party was damaged
e.g. Suez

Back during the Falklands War, MrsT was ordered by Reagan - because of US intersts in South America - to back down and compromise with Argentina
She had to agree, even though it would have destroyed her government and split the party
Fortunately, Galtieri was too stupid to accept 80% of what he wanted, so she was able to continue the war and win.

Some fun with US chicken
Apologies for posting a link.
www.herbs-info.com/blog/usda-says-okay-to-ship-chickens-to-china-for-cheap-processing/?fbclid=IwAR3ILuUSqpSgU88Qjioxw8hy5931EBtow0OtHYHNJIRauyXdjQGRkCp1uZU

Pretzels Sorry, but now you're sounding paranoid

This is not nice.

Sorry, BigChocFrenzy you clearly have no idea, and little interest in what it is actually like for us living here through this.

We are having to adjust our previous privilege in living in a safe, democratic and trustworthy country.

It is not easy.

No Deal is certain disaster, no ifs, no buts

That a government would break the WA is a very small chance
That it would not be brought down by the US; the EU or even by international courts is a much smaller one.

Tusk:
"Today, there is no political force and no effective leadership for remain. I say this without satisfaction, but you can’t argue with the facts.”

That view seems unanimous across EU leaders now.

I have not read the slightest encouragement or belief in Remain from any of them since 2017

They don't just read our papers - they have intelligence services who've been working flat out to assess what is happening in the UK

Sorry, but now you're sounding paranoid.

I got called a nazi yesterday for exercising my democratic right to march. Our country is currently not a functioning democracy - we are beholden to people who have consistently put their own profit ahead of the national good and even lives of their constituents. They are supported by an angry mob.

You think I sound paranoid.
I think you sound tragically naive.

Ever since the threads have started we've seen boundaries pushed, rights squashed and powers extended to a frightening degree. We have seen that the people in charge of brexit either have no diplomatic skills or are actively trying to piss off the international community.

I don't believe that will come to an end after the passing of the W.A and therefore I cannot support it.

I have not read the slightest encouragement or belief in Remain from any of them since 2017

You no longer seem to be talking about the reality we face, or listening to anything that other posters are saying.

We know that remain has been obliterated. We are now wondering how we survive.

I don't understand your posts at all.

Jericho With No Deal, you may have to adjust to possible shortages of essential medicines
to far more people going hungry
mass unemployment
Sterling crashing
.....

We know No Deal would be a disaster
The WA genuinely would be much better than this - and it is the only option actually on the table

The EU are strongly advising remainers to accept the WA and then concentrate on pushing to negotiate a future relationship that is as close as possible to the EU
Listen to the experts, not just feelz - they are on our side too

Remain has only a v tiny chance of happening
If suddenly there is a chance of a Remain vs WA PV, that's great - let's go for it
BUT
Trashing the WA and insisting only PV or Remain is acceptable is like putting your house and all your savings on a 100:1 outsider in the Derby

Kudos to you *Icantreachthepretzels^

I got called a nazi yesterday for exercising my democratic right to march

I am not going to post the threats that are being made now to pro democracy activists, which we are.

That poster is not listening, millions are not listening.

But a lot us here are, including me.