Westministenders: A Special Place in Hell

[RedToothBrush]

A quick start to a new thread (as I've not been paying attention this evening!).

May is looking to ditch the Malthouse Compromise. Cos its so rubbish.

The ERG look like they are splitting over it anyway.

Up to sixty Labour MPs could back the WA.

Half the ERG plus Labour Leave Rebels could be enough to get the WA over the line.

Donald Tusk, makes controversial comment by more or less stating the obvious.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Guide to Brexit Abbreviations and Terms

So Grayling just noticed:
Wot, no ships

To confirm:

The no confidence motion in Luciana Berger MPhas been withdrawn and the local party meeting cancelled.

A source close to the Labour leadership said: "It was the right decision"

< the original decision - the motion - was batshit, apparently wanting rid of her for drawing attention to the institutional anti-semitism of Corbyn's Labour party >

So Grayling just noticed:
Wot, no ships

He never inspires confidence when I see him on the news. During the drone-at-Gatwick crisis I kept thinking of the way monkeys grin to signify fear :( He had a constant inane smile fixed to his face as the situation got worse and worse.

Peter Brookes@BrookesTimes

My cartoon Friday at #TheTimes. Lost in translation....#BrexitChaos #TheresaMay

I wonder if a number of the well paid higher educated group are effectively the boiling frogs.
Brexit is a 'slow burn' and apart from headlines (which have been relatively mild thus far) the prospect of a percentage or two price rise doesn't actually have much impact. If your weekly shop is say £100 and over a year goes to £105 then you wouldn't notice it. Unless confronted by a large step change which is absolutely caused by Brexit then people won't take any notice.

Mark Carney: Britain faces weakest growth in a decade

This forecast is without considering No Deal, since - like the rest of us- the BoE doesn't know what kind of Brexit May will dump us in

Definition of recession: a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

So, with the lagtime in getting economic statistics, uncertainty / major events normally take some months to officially show up as causing a recession. ^
^
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c22f8326-2b30-11e9-92e2-27eb1cf1c11ff^

Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, blamed the “fog of Brexit” yesterday as he said that the economy would grow this year at its slowest rate since the financial crash a decade ago.

The bank slashed its growth forecast
and cautioned that there was a one-in-four chance of recession by the summer because of Brexit uncertainty

“The fog of Brexit is causing short-term volatility in the economic data and more fundamentally it is creating a series of tensions in the economy, tensions for business,” Mr Carneyey_ said.^

The WA - since we'd enter transition on 30 March - would just be a continuation of economic slowdown
However, No Deal would soon be very noticeable to most people

UK exports & manufacturing stats

For quite a while now, EU manufacturers, certainly in Germany, have been stockpiling British components etc in advance
probably some further afield in non-EU coutries too.

That would have given a boost to UK manufacturing figures for the last few / several months

However, several reports of concerns now over what will happen to UK exports that are sent long distances by ship on a 6 week journey:

Noone yet knows if they would face WTO tariffs, or even be allowed to offload on time at their destination - might take days / weeks to sort out new situation

Hence, from now until Brexit is clearly defined, we can expect a weakening of exports to these destinations

Morning all.
I saw the seabourne farce fist thing. How much are these MPs getting paid to be stupid??

Motheroffourdragons
I have just seen this ..

NEW: Chris Grayling has terminated a contract with Seaborne Freight to provide ferries in the event of a no deal Brexit.

I saw this earlier, on the Irish news, which gives a bit more detail of why.
www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0209/1028504-seaborne-freight-britain/

I can't help wondering if the Irish government made an offer to Arklow Shipping that they couldn't refuse. They (government) have been trying to get more 'brexitbusters' organised for the last couple of years.

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0420/955953-dublin-port/

I think Lonely is already leading the way on this with her carefully thought through proposal for a temporary takeover of the government by the EU. 

You're on to my fiendish plan Bigly I think it's a case of gallows humour.

(FT paywall) No-deal Brexit risks rise as UK-Japan trade talks stall

What to expect with most non-EU countries
(except tiny developing countries the UK is reportedly bullying into trade deals)

https://www.ft.com/content/5ce60af2-2b90-11e9-a5ab-ff8ef2b976c7

Britain and Japan have made little progress on a new trade deal in the past 18 months, according to officials involved in the talks,
with tariffs set to revert to World Trade Organization levels at the end of March unless the UK ratifies a Brexit deal.

Japan has agreed to extend existing trade terms for the duration of Britain’s planned transition period with the EU
but this will not apply if the UK fails to strike a deal with Brussels.

It is now too late for the Japanese Diet to ratify any agreement before Brexit is scheduled to take place on March 29.
There is also a wide gap in expectations about a trade accord, 😂🤦🏻‍♀️
which would apply either in the case of no-deal Brexit
or at the end of Britain’s planned transition period, which is due to end in December 2020.

Tokyo is confident that it can secure better terms from the UK than it did in negotiations with the much larger EU
and is not willing to duplicate the existing treaty precisely in either a bilateral deal or in talks for the UK to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership group.

“The new agreement is not just a copy-and-paste of the existing treaty,” < the recent EU-Japan FTA >
said one Japanese official briefed on the talks.
“The tariffs, rules and quotas need to be negotiated separately.”

The lack of progress on a future bilateral deal a goal set out by prime minister Theresa May on a visit to Japan in August 2017 —
highlights the UK’s broader struggle to roll over existing EU trade deals, let alone secure anything better.

This week, Britain’s Department for International Trade briefed 30 business groups on its failure to replicate “most” of the EU’s trade deals with other countries around the world.
Participants complained that they would be seriously affected by the failure to conclude agreements with partners as significant as Canada, Turkey and Japan.
.....
But in preliminary talks, Tokyo’s veteran trade negotiators have been under instructions to extract every advantage possible.
Progress has been particularly slow since many of their UK counterparts have been diverted to work on preparations for a no-deal Brexit.
.....
But if there is no transition period with Brussels the effects of the EU-Japan deal on Britain will expire too.

As a precautionary step,
Japan’s customs agency has issued guidance to companies that different tariffs will apply on March 30 depending on whether the UK ratifies a Brexit deal or not.^

This seems like such a minor complaint in the face of - well, everything - but am I the only one feeling really cross about being reassured the government are in ‘advanced talks’ with other shipping companies?

So, that’s ok then. You know, this is going to be a monumental issue which is happening in, what is it now, 48 days? Just the small matter of how we’re going to get essential supplies into the country. But, hey, that’s ok because you know, the talks are all really advanced and everything.

The UK seems to have lost the skills of negotiating with equals, or much stronger blocs,
but hasn't forgotten its old skill at bullying the weakest

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-liam-fox-eu-tariffs-exports-africa-central-america-caribbean-a8770391.html?

Liam Foxx^, the international trade secretary, is accused of piling pressure on developing nationss^ to “sign up blind” – without knowing the value of the deals – with a warning they will otherwise be lost.

the Department for International Tradee* is under fire for telling the countries concerned they risk punishing tariffs on crucial exports to the UK, unless they re-sign the deals in time.

Among them are Ghanaa^, which relies on banana sales, Mauritiuss^ (tuna), Kenyaa^ (flowers), Cote d’Ivoiree^ (cocoa), Namibiaa^ (grapes and beef), Swazilandd^ (sugar), and scores of other developing countries in Africa, the Caribbean and Central America.

< for perspective, the GDP of all Africa together is about ⅔ Germany's GDP. Bullying all the weaker countries in the world won't come near to compensating for UK Brexit losses >

You reckon or you know? If so it wouldn’t be typical of that demographic ime.

Well I only know if they tell me or if it becomes very clear through the nature of their argument. It seems to be about 60/40 in favour of remain. Quite a few discuss changing their view over time although in both directions. Brexit is openly discussed where I work and I've never sensed any bad feeling about it. These boards are a real eye opener for me.

Here’s RTB’s The Day Today clip - talk about life imitating art:

m.youtube.com/watch?v=BDKQliH1awY

"Peter, you've lost the news!"
PMSL

DH had a good idea. UK Parliament could decamp to the EU chamber for a weekend. Hold about 100 indicative votes (with buttons) and maybe come up with a sketch of a plan.

New EU rules to increase workers' rights - typical of what the ERG hates & fears about the EU

EU Social@EU_Social

Good news for social Europe!

Today we have reached an agreement that will provide 200 million workers in Europe with more transparent & predictable working conditions
....
What changes with today's deal?

Info given by the employer

Deadlines & ways to provide it

Material rights

Enforcement rules

Factsheet → europa.eu/!GU68uq

Buttons- now there's an idea!

Goodness me lonely what fiendish idea have you had about buttons? Asking MPs to vote with buttons would be very dangerous, Grayling for example would probably press the wrong one. Though maybe that would be an advantage.
(I’ve just properly realised how the way MPs vote is specially designed to enable bullying and coercion by the whips.)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/08/brexit-as-disruptive-as-disease-outbreak-says-farmers-leader

Farmers are finding preparing for Brexitit^ as disruptive as a major disease outbreak,*
and food companies are in danger of moving out of the UK or scaling back their investment,^^
a farming leader has warned.

Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers’ Union, said:
“Millions are being spent every day in no-deal planning and contingency plans for the food industry. Businesses are having to invest so much money to protect us from an inept parliament. This will break some businesses.”

She added: “It is like disease crisis management, but we don’t even know what we are going into.”

(((((((( The Day Today ))))))))))

Are we nearly there yet?