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Brexit

Westministenders: A Special Place in Hell

987 replies

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2019 00:16

A quick start to a new thread (as I've not been paying attention this evening!).

May is looking to ditch the Malthouse Compromise. Cos its so rubbish.

The ERG look like they are splitting over it anyway.

Up to sixty Labour MPs could back the WA.

Half the ERG plus Labour Leave Rebels could be enough to get the WA over the line.

Donald Tusk, makes controversial comment by more or less stating the obvious.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation
Guide to Brexit Abbreviations and Terms

OP posts:
Thread gallery
37
borntobequiet · 07/02/2019 17:56

Got back from holiday today - on long trek from plane to passport control there were loads of TV screens, every 30 m or so, all showing BBC news prominently featuring the word BREXIT...so so depressing.
I felt really miserable as we flew over the English coastline, it doesn’t feel like coming home any more. While away, DD and I conversed in French as far as possible out of sheer embarrassment (though everyone abroad thinks she’s German anyway).

MissMalice · 07/02/2019 17:56

PMK

lonelyplanetmum · 07/02/2019 18:00

telling May & the cabinet in public how fed up he was with the EU being expected to find a Brexit that wouldn't split the Tory party

Agreed. There's an underlying verity in my flippant previous posts above. I genuinely would prefer Tusk or someone like Verhofstadt in a prime ministerial position in the U.K.

They have both shown more of an insightful, holistic and statesmanlike understanding of the factors at play in the U.K. and the multi faceted motivations behind the referendum vote than many domestic MPs.

I know it is absurd but I'd like to use the emergency powers to give an EU statesperson a pro tem caretaker role. They have the experience of the issues and would be more au fait with NI than Karen Bradley and more welcome in Calais than Grayling.

BiglyBadgers · 07/02/2019 18:04

^This is typical of the rhetoric from Guy Verhofstadt.
I post this without comment.^

www.libdemvoice.org/liblink-guy-verhofstadt-writes-about-the-need-for-a-new-politics-in-britain-59809.html

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-new-british-politics-by-guy-verhofstadt-2019-01

Seems eminently reasonable and reasoned to me. I can't really find anything to fault in what he says. His article lays out the situation, the EU's position and how the British could look to overcome this deadlock in a remarkably clear and accessible way. Good for him. Wish we had such clarity and insight from our PM and opposition.

DarlingNikita · 07/02/2019 18:05

lonely, that's not absurd at all. It's grown up and pragmatic and not adversarial or tribal.

Loletta · 07/02/2019 18:13

More bad news. From Peston

"With 50 days left before the official date for leaving the EU, we may just have hit peak Brexit mayhem.

Can it get any worse than this? Seriously.

The cabinet has a three-way split between those who see a no-deal Brexit as economic and political armageddon, the Rudds, Hammonds, Gaukes and so on, those who would prefer a negotiated deal but secretly like the idea of a purer rupture - the Leadsoms, Foxes and Mordaunts - and those sitting in the middle with their fingers in their ears, thinking happy thoughts and hoping none of this is really happening.

"It is frustrating how many in the cabinet are just sitting this out" said one minister.

The Labour frontbench and top team has its equivalent division, between Corbyn and his Unite-linked allies, who want Brexit, and those who'd like the UK to stay in the EU via a referendum, the Watsons and Starmers, and then slightly to one side the arch-pragmatist McDonnell, who is judging which route best secures a Labour government.

Within parliament itself, there are visceral divisions between MPs in all parties who want a referendum, others - again in all parties - who want the softest kind of Brexit, what's come to be known as Common Market ll, and those largely in the Tory party who favour the most definitive and severe break with the EU.

Even within the uber Brexiters of the Tories' European Research Group, there is now a visceral divide between those who will only support a Brexit deal if the backstop for keeping open the border on the island of Ireland is formally torn up, and those who would accept some kind of legal guarantee that the backstop could not be forever.

Meanwhile there are even tensions and splits emerging between EU 27 leaders themselves, and between the EU leaders on the one hand and the bureaucracy in Brussels on the other - laid bare by the perceptible unease at the emotive language deployed yesterday against the UK government by the president of the EU council Donald Tusk.

Is it remotely plausible that order can emerge from this utter chaos, that some kind of stable route either out of the EU or even to remain in the EU could yet transpire?

It is very difficult to see how, unless and until either May or Corbyn is prepared to call the other's bluff - and put the national interest ahead of narrower party interest.

The fundamental point is that it is now impossible to conceive of a Brexit deal which secures the majority support of MPs across the House of Commons which would not simultaneously break up either the Tory Party or the Labour Party or - more probably - both parties.

In other words, if Corbyn's and May's first choice is what they claim, namely a negotiated Brexit, then they will at some point have to agree a Brexit deal between them that brings the high probability of significant members of their own parliamentary colleagues feeling so alienated that they break away from their respective parties.

A couple of interviews are not a trend, but it was striking that last night on my show Labour's Luciana Berger pointedly did not rule out leaving Labour to form a new centre-ground party, and the Tory Brexiter Steve Baker has previously on the show been explicit that a corrupted Brexit would prompt fission in his party.

Here is the thing: the prospect of damage to both parties might offer the basis for entente between their respective leaders.

Except that the damage is unlikely to be identical and symmetrical for Conservatives and Labour.

As the TSSA research I cited yesterday shows, any kind of Brexit - except perhaps the worst kind of unmanaged anarchic Brexit - is better for the Tories' future electoral prospects than for Labour's.

Knowing that, it is very hard for May to trust Corbyn is negotiating in good faith, or vice versa.

Which leads to a conclusion that is as close to tragedy as it is possible to get in politics: if anyone tells you they know where this Brexit saga will end, they are either a blithering idiot or a criminal liar.

PS at 12.15pm

The PM’s joint statement with Juncker just now on their short talks confirms quite how much power over what kind of Brexit - if any - we face is held by Corbyn.

Because Juncker confirmed that the only concession on the backstop he can potentially offer is to change the non-binding (in a legal sense) Political Declaration, to embrace practical steps such that the backstop would be needed (if at all) for the shortest possible time.

That will not satisfy any Tory Brexiters, let alone the purists in the ERG who want the backstop incinerated.

Even so the PM has agreed to open talks on modifying the Political Declaration, with a view to meeting Juncker again to take stock at the end of February.

Has May bought herself anything of value here?

That depends on whether in just the next few days she can persuade Merkel, Macron and other EU leaders to relent and change the negotiating mandate, such that the Withdrawal Agreement will at the last be reopened.

If they won’t budge - and I cannot see them doing so - she can only get a Brexit deal through parliament with substantial Labour support.

So as I said a little earlier, it is the prime minister’s moment of truth: is she prepared to break up her party to secure an orderly negotiated Brexit, because there is no longer any alternative on offer than the no-deal Brexit she claims she does not want?"

BiglyBadgers · 07/02/2019 18:15

Trying to decide if I should respond to a friend’s Facebook post. Posted a screenshot of Tusk’s tweet and Verhofstadt’s response with just the word ‘tossers’. Then a load of his Beleaver friends weighed in with some depressingly predictable responses including this corker

I think you should just post the video of Bercow responding to that irate leaver in the Commons by saying he hadn't realised he was such a "delicate flower". You can find it on Mike Galsworthy's twitter feed.

wrongsideofhistorymyarse · 07/02/2019 18:15

Cod smudge consort

foggyuplands · 07/02/2019 18:15

louise Guy seems to have written a sensible and sane article about where we are and what would need to happen to get out of the mess we are in.
Another poster who wishes our leaders in either party were writing such common sense.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 07/02/2019 18:21

Why was the op deleted in this thread: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/3501203-To-agree-with-Donald-tusk-there-is-a-place-in-hell-for-brexiters?

BiglyBadgers · 07/02/2019 18:25

That Peston post seems to pretty much sum up what we have been saying on these threads for a while now. I particularly agree with:

The fundamental point is that it is now impossible to conceive of a Brexit deal which secures the majority support of MPs across the House of Commons which would not simultaneously break up either the Tory Party or the Labour Party or - more probably - both parties.

This is the main reason why I am now pretty much convinced we are on a course for no deal by default. I can't see a realistic scenario where enough of the various factions will agree with something that May is prepared to put forward to pass any other plan.

DangermousesSidekick · 07/02/2019 18:28

PMK

BiglyBadgers · 07/02/2019 18:28

Why was the op deleted in this thread:

That's a bit odd. I don't think I've ever seen them delete an OP and just leave the rest of the thread there hanging.

derxa · 07/02/2019 18:31

Agreed. There's an underlying verity in my flippant previous posts above. I genuinely would prefer Tusk or someone like Verhofstadt in a prime ministerial position in the U.K. I'm continually perplexed by these fawning posts.

lonelyplanetmum · 07/02/2019 18:40

that's not absurd at all

The more I think about it - a pro tem EU/U.K. interim govt could work:

  1. Not involved in Tory internecine strife.
  1. Very experienced and well briefed in all the issues.
  1. Appreciate the NI situation very well. Would work at restoring Stormont.
  1. More minded to bridge gap between rich and poor than successive U.K. governments.
  1. Experienced in regenerating left behind areas.
  1. Aware of sensitivities in Scotland and Gibraltar.
  1. Not in Trumps lap.
  1. Well versed in negotiating trade agreements with many Asia, African etc countries.
  1. Would make the extreme Brexit brigade realise that actually it was just food and environment and trade stuff before and actually we hadn't been taken over, but now we have actually it was ok.
  1. As the incumbents would come from relatively rich EU countries the cost would probably be less than DexEU.

  2. Would give time for Lab and Tories to come up with a plan.

Loletta · 07/02/2019 18:40

BCF I didn't realise the Labour Party was as polarised as the Tories. The way I see it, the Tories have the Ultras (the ERG) but is there an equivalent in the Labour Party? Are they really so split? Genuine question.

Destiel · 07/02/2019 18:41

The OP may have requested it after the mn data breach

BiglyBadgers · 07/02/2019 18:44

It's back now. I assume it was a mistake somewhere.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 07/02/2019 18:44

lonelyplanet 😂😂😂 you are naughty.

I try not to respond to Leavers on SM I don’t know (Facebook friend is an old school friend - I don’t know any of his frothy-mouthed fellow Leaver friends) but just lately I’ve been finding it bloody hard.

BiglyBadgers · 07/02/2019 18:47

I'm continually perplexed by these fawning posts.

I think it just shows how remarkably terrible and incompetent our current leadership is that they make any generally capable person look bloody amazing in comparison.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 07/02/2019 18:47

Argh - have been away and didn’t refresh my page. Lonelyplanet laughing and calling you naughty was (I hope obviously!) in response to your suggestions re my Facebook friend’s post - not your most recent posts Blush

lonelyplanetmum · 07/02/2019 18:48

I'm enjoying my naughtiness. It's a curved ball! People are perplexed.

Graves again...

Trusting his images, he assumes their relevance;
Mistrusting my images, I question their relevance.
...
He continues quick and dull in his clear images;
I continue slow and sharp in my broken images.
He in a new confusion of his understanding;
I in a new understanding of my confusion

( In broken images)

lonelyplanetmum · 07/02/2019 18:49

Don't worry Singing my recent posts are in the same vein. I've radicalised.

RedToothBrush · 07/02/2019 18:50

THIS

The Columnist @Sime0nStylites
Anyone got a view re the Brexit point of no return date?

ie The date after which the U.K. will HAVE to get an extension from the EU EVEN IF a deal is agreed.

Needless to say, after this date virtually all negotiating leverage will be lost.

Spoiler: It will be quite soon.

If we assume the end of this month - probably generous - then the next opportunity to impose on the government an extension request is a code red emergency.

The date will be known somewhere - if it isn’t, then the government must resign. I suggest an appropriate humble address ASAP. /ends

Definitely a point to keep in mind and your eyes on

OP posts:
BiglyBadgers · 07/02/2019 18:55

I don't get that post Red

I thought we had already passed the point when there is no realistic possibility of us passing all the legislation required to put through a deal or even be able to prepare for a no deal. We would, therefore, require an extension in all circumstances except a true no prep no deal. I was sure I'd read this somewhere...

Have we not? Am I being overly negative?

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