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Brexit

Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

989 replies

RedToothBrush · 04/02/2019 15:14

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

OP posts:
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Lucygoeswalkies · 05/02/2019 12:28

Changes to legislation:Civil Contingencies Act 2004 is up to date with all changes known to be in force on or before 31 January 2019. There are changes that may be brought into force at a future date

Gulp...

Motheroffourdragons · 05/02/2019 12:28

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

Lucygoeswalkies · 05/02/2019 12:29

Damn. Bold fail. It was the final sentence that bothered me.

Destiel · 05/02/2019 12:30

Pay day for many falls on March 29th...

DGRossetti · 05/02/2019 12:30

There are a lot of school trips departing on 29/30 March - I don’t think the teachers are the travelling smug.

I didn't say they were. But one of the deflection tricks by the BeLeavers when travel is mentioned is to wibble on about insurance as if it's a magic cloak along with a naive belief that just because an airline or company hadn't flown them to they'd just get a refund. Both ignoring the fact that all contracts have clauses that pretty much invalidate them in the event of "the unforeseen". Which using the CCA almost certainly counts as.

Bear in mind a lot of these contracts could be fought in court, if it came to it. And that's a court system already creaking in some areas. (Just wait until all the business vs. HMG suits get filed ....)

Inniu · 05/02/2019 12:31

Gosh, if the UK government is concerned about US support for the Irish position it probably wasn’t a great idea to have Brexit Day less than 2 weeks after St Patrick’s Day. That annual event where every single US politician will be sitting down to a long-standing arrangement of a breakfast/lunch/dinner/bowl of shamrock/pint of Guinness with an Irish Goverment Minister.

Wonder what they will talk about.

QueenOfThorns · 05/02/2019 12:53

David got it wrong and said a50 wouldn't be triggered because no rational government would.

Why’s that wrong? This government isn’t showing many signs of being rational!

Frankiestein402 · 05/02/2019 13:17

I do wish interviewers would put their brains in gear and ask even the obvious questions. R4 Discussion this am on tech solutions to NI border - suggesting import/export declarations being created at source/destination and 'mobile inspection teams' being dispatched to inspect shipments deemed to be high risk.
Was aching for the bod to ask "what happens if no declaration is filed and the truck just drives over the border"

Lucygoeswalkies · 05/02/2019 13:22

PMK

wherearemychickens · 05/02/2019 13:28

Mother - bank accounts would presumably be frozen to prevent a run on the banks.

DGRossetti · 05/02/2019 13:34

bank accounts would presumably be frozen to prevent a run on the banks.

I don't think TSB customers would notice, to be fair ....

Anothercalaisvolunteer · 05/02/2019 13:45

I've got a question about movement of goods. I run frequent aid drops to refugees in Calais. At the moment there is no issue with taking goods over. What happens if we either:
a)leave with no deal?
b)miraculously leave under the WA?
I can't imagine trying to make customs declarations on for example: 5 boxes of assorted coats, 3 boxes of shoes, a load of sleeping bags and a random selection of food and underwear.

UndersAndOvers · 05/02/2019 13:46

Was aching for the bod to ask "what happens if no declaration is filed and the truck just drives over the border"
I thought that when I read the 'open border' suggestion. Has anyone in the govt answered it?

DGRossetti · 05/02/2019 13:52

I've got a question about movement of goods. I run frequent aid drops to refugees in Calais. At the moment there is no issue with taking goods over. What happens if we either: a)leave with no deal?

I'd be concerned that your cargo would be allowed in at all. With no deal the UK becomes a 3rd country and goods would be subject to a regime few are familiar with.

You might be able to declare charity cargo as "personal items" (assuming there's no suitable category already). But even if you can get a definitive answer in advance, there's no way of ensuring the official on the spot will have been briefed correctly.

It's that last issue - both ways - that might start the meltdown of the system.

Anothercalaisvolunteer · 05/02/2019 13:55

That's my concern too DGRossetti that we simply won't be allowed through. We sometimes do get diverted to be searched already.

I can't imagine that they would be happy to wave us back in without at least a cursory glance into the van sometimes.

SusanWalker · 05/02/2019 13:58

New Europeans #FBPE
New Europeans #FBPE
@NewEuropeans
.
@politicscouk

#CutGordianKnot

  1. 3 mth #Art50 extension
  2. Pass #WithdrawalAgreement with sunset clause
  3. Sunset clause: Hold ref. on day of #EuropeanElections If remain: Revoke #Art50, MEPs take up seats 2 Jul. If leave: UK leaves the EU on WA terms (link: neweuropeans.net/article/2630/cutting-gordian-knot-eu-citizens-and-britons-europe-call-referendum-day-european) neweuropeans.net/article/2630/c…
Inniu · 05/02/2019 14:05

Will there still be camps in Calais? If the UK is not checking trucks anymore to avoid delays presumably all the refugees will just head over to the UK through the one way only open border?

Anothercalaisvolunteer · 05/02/2019 14:08

Who knows Innui

DGRossetti · 05/02/2019 14:09

I also wonder what goodies could simply be posted into the UK and how postal customs could be affected ? Once again the asymmetry of the UK having to check 27 countries transactions whilst the entire EU only has to check one: the UK.

(wanders off to look at tariffs on tobacco and spirits in case of no deal ....)

When airlines start flying again, will we see the duty free trolley make a comeback ?

Also have Heathrow and Gatwick submitted plans for approval for reorganising the duty free to cope with removing the "EU destinations" sections ? (Plus the requisite changes to software. Again. ?)

Back in pre-EEC days. DF used to run his employers "Sports and social club" which organised trips "to the continent" ... given DF didn't smoke, he always seemed to bring back a lot of cigarettes Hmm

ChiaraRimini · 05/02/2019 14:10

If the truck just drives over the border without a declaration

They will be able to use ANPR to collect registration numbers and check them against pre-submitted customs declaration. But if they are trucks from outside the U.K. will they have access to databases to check ownership of vehicles?

DGRossetti · 05/02/2019 14:12

Will there still be camps in Calais? If the UK is not checking trucks anymore to avoid delays presumably all the refugees will just head over to the UK through the one way only open border?

ISIS/Daesh, Al Queda, the tufty club. They've all been on high alert for just this moment. Luckily HMG are way ahead of the curve with an AI blockchain solution that uses big data to predict consumer behaviour and save money by knowing exactly how much electricity your autonomous car will be using as it prevents drone attacks.*

BURP

I may have been reading too much bumf of late.

(* - did I miss anything ?)

DGRossetti · 05/02/2019 14:15

They will be able to use ANPR to collect registration numbers and check them against pre-submitted customs declaration. But if they are trucks from outside the U.K. will they have access to databases to check ownership of vehicles?

In the event of no deal EU trucks will be from "outside the UK". So that's a no (and vice-versa, in theory).

Don't worry though. Sajid Javid has stated that he will give the problem as much effort as he have solving the Windrush problem. Maybe even more. Although my understanding is anything times fuck all is still fuck all.

SusanWalker · 05/02/2019 14:18

Surely the ANPR could be got around with fake number plates or a careful smear of mud. If there are not enough staff to stop anyone then trucks will get through.

Great video:

twitter.com/i/status/1092755958768398338

PerverseConverse · 05/02/2019 14:21

But we'll have control of our borders!!! Confused

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