Westminstenders: It's oh so quiet...

[RedToothBrush]

It's oh so quiet // It's oh so still // You're all alone // And so peaceful until

You ring the news // Bim bam // You shout and you yell // Hi ho ho // You broke the spell // Gee, this is swell you almost have a fit // Brexit is fab and I got hit // There's no mistake get on with it

'Til it's over and then // It's nice and quiet //
Shh shh // But soon again // Shh shh // Uh oh let's start a big riot

You blow a fuse // Zing boom // The devil cuts loose // Zing boom // What's the use
Wow bam // Of leaving the EU

It's gone quiet.

May was supposed to go on a tour of the EU to get concessions. She hasn't.

Instead we are currently stuck in an internal never ending debate about Alternative Arrangements (which is being abbreved too A. A. by less convinced souls) and how Germany got all the money from Marshall Aid (it didn't) and how navy ships can suddenly sprout front opening hulls to become roll on roll off ferries to emulate the spirit of Dunkirk. One of our greatest ever military defeats, which merely had good PR.

The idea that there is going to be any shift in position between now and 14th Feb seems unlikely. It suits the EU and it suits the ERG to be blunt about it. It does not suit the UK national interest though.

Instead our livihoods and futures are slowly drip, drip, dripping away. Invisible to those loved up on the idea of Leaving. But like a newly wed, how long does that feeling last? 42% of British marriages end in divorce after all. When do people fall out of love with Brexit?

The revelation of the need for the WAIB is scary too. The WAIB is the Withdrawal Agreement Implementation Bill. You can read more about it here:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1091734003265224708.html
Well I say you can read about it, but from the thread you can see that the WAIB hasn't been published yet. And for us to Brexit without a legal and constitutional nightmare parliament needs to pass both the WA And the WAIB. And if you thought it was difficult to get the WA through just wait until you clap eyes on the WAIB details.

With this in mind there are noises from the ERG about an A50 extension. Y'know the one we can't have unless the EU think it's it their interests too.

mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/brexit/europe/the-uk-rips-out-its-eu-law-drip,-only-to-hook-up-to-another
More on the WAIB.

Of course there is a more sinister explanation: May does indeed intend to no deal and or use civil contingency law to pass the WAIB in whatever form she sees fit without parliamentary scrutiny.

Tick, tick, tick.

A friend told me today not to worry about brexit as "we survived before and we'll survive again". I didn't say much. My history lessons were rather grimmer in reminding me, that the ones who didn't survive don't get to be so optimistic.

Will there still be camps in Calais? If the UK is not checking trucks anymore to avoid delays presumably all the refugees will just head over to the UK through the one way only open border?

Yes I think the camps will go which is a positive.
I do think there is another sort of positive in all this? At the moment people profiteer from people smuggling, and I guess its a niche expensive monopolised market? However as there are going to be minimal or non existent checks... so people smuggling will be much easier.That must mean market forces will drive the prices down iyswim. So the truly exploitative people smugglers will go out of business or have to reduce their prices?

I am not quit au fait with the system yet-is it on ferries with shipping containers or lorries where there will be no checks for at least a year, or both? Yay, anyway taking back control and opening our borders...I think?

But we'll have control of our borders!!! confused

Control of the borders in Ireland, as ever maintaining the Empire is of utmost importance. Whilst getting the rage at someone else holding the English in the EU empire.

mobile.twitter.com/TheRedRoar/status/1092522416591519745

mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1092740115716362241

I think we will have control of our borders and we are using that control to open them?

I'm getting into this control thing.

Money- we will be spending and losing trillions more than 0.7% of GDP -but it's our choice innit.

Laws- we will be complying with regulations to comply with WTO or the US requirements for trade or the Indian Quid pro quo of visas for trade -but it's our choice innit.

Borders-we are opening our borders for 12 months to begin with- but it's our choice innit.

I'm finally getting behind it, see!

Yes I think the camps will go which is a positive.

Not disagreeing it would be a positive, but why do you think the camps will go ?

I do think there is another sort of positive in all this? At the moment people profiteer from people smuggling, and I guess its a niche expensive monopolised market? However as there are going to be minimal or non existent checks... so people smuggling will be much easier.

you also need to bear in mind that the UK still has no definitive list of who is here, let alone who should be here. It's a source of puzzlement to family in Italy why a country so clearly obsessed with immigration as the UK has never bothered to try and actually do something about it. (Cui bono ?). Leading to the disgusting paradox that people who have lived here all their lives completely legally get thrown out with 24 hours notice, while somebody from anywhere can rock up and disappear into the system.

I was being facetious, sorry.

DGR - I'm being a little bit perverse. We are avoiding delays by waiving stuff through. The effect is that the Calais camp should reduce as it will be easier to cadge a lift without being thwarted.

@SusanWalker fab video! Am I weird that I was actually bopping along to it?

while somebody from anywhere can rock up and disappear into the system.

I think that's the new system open borders but sort of a vigilante random round up on the streets from time to time. Windrush is just a bit of a practice run? ( Still facetious or perverse like Perverse I think?)

If the UK is not checking trucks anymore to avoid delays presumably all the refugees will just head over to the UK through the one way only open border?

They're not saying they're not going to be conducting the checks they already conduct for smuggling people and illegal items. They're saying that the full customs declaration doesn't need to be submitted until after arrival and (I infer) that they won't be checking it's been correctly completed (and payment of duty arranged) at the border.

It's not even clear that they're suggesting that they won't still be requiring the departure/arrival paperwork procedure. If not then there will presumably still be delays - things won't just continue to flow as they do now.

Which I suppose answers the question of why we're pissing around with lorry parks and pretend ferries if we're just going to be waving everything through anyway...

ANPR - "sure an all - was just visiting me brother - truck was empty wasn't it" - and that's only needed for the cameras that survive a 12 bore or a tractor 'nudge'

All the technology in the world today can't look inside the truck and there'll be approaches to keep a constant spring height.

Given the huge sums to be made by vat fraud on high value goods a transit could easily carry a million euros of mobiles back "undeclared" for repeated transit - and that's just one of the known fraud models today.

I should mention that guidance to the haulage industry on new customs procedures was meant to have been published last month. As far as I know it wasn't.

on new customs procedures was meant to have been published last month.

It was published the week wasn't it- in essence 145,000 companies waived through?

( Still facetious or perverse like Perverse I think?)

Looks like I'll have to up my game

It was published the week wasn't it

No, that's just for public consumption. There are still procedures that have to be gone through - it won't just be a matter of things carrying on as they are now.

Sunderland Nissan factory production manager voted for Brexit to teach Brits a lesson

A production line manager at Nissan told radio listeners that he voted Leave to teach Brits about the importance of the European Union.

Listeners heard that even if the plant closes down in a couple of years, he has a German passport so will most likely be able to relocate to a European facility should Brexit cause it to close.

Wesley said: "It's not even the Scots, it's my English colleagues, when I was trying to explain it to them, they didn't seem to get it, and that's when the penny dropped, I thought, I think it's time for a bit of English humility.

"When they don't listen to facts any more - almost like the American 'We are number one', like we are British, we are great.

"That's the reason why - no matter what you say, no one will listen.

"You need a little bit of pain."

www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/sunderland-nissan-factory-production-manager-15781568

Given the huge sums to be made by vat fraud on high value goods a transit could easily carry a million euros of mobiles back "undeclared" for repeated transit - and that's just one of the known fraud models today.

It doesn't work any more with mobiles. When it did work it worked just fine when all countries concerned were in the EU and there was the same lack of border checks.

Sunderland Nissan factory production manager voted for Brexit to teach Brits a lesson

Can't say I would have, but I can understand where they are coming from

I hope on Brexit Day that everybody knows what they are supposed to be doing.
Especially all the folk in uniforms

I hope on Brexit Day that everybody knows what they are supposed to be doing. Especially all the folk in uniforms

I'm sure they will ... down to a person.

Whether it's the same as the person doing the same job in a different place .... or whether it's what the person they have to call up to get clarification from knows .... well there's the rub

(thread reference)

How should a box of insulated materials saying "INSULIN - for IMMEDIATE DELIVERY" be treated ?

It's true that there aren't any official camps, but small encampments exist and reform each time the police tear them down.

I don't think waving trucks through would get rid of the problem - there will still be dogs and heat sensors to detect people, smugglers will still control parking areas. Only if there are large queues of lorries will things get easier for people to get across. If they get stuck in them for days, lives will be put at further risk.

there will still be dogs and heat sensors to detect people

Be curious to know how effective these things are ... certainly dogs are a bit shit at times.

Just caught a bit of Treezas speech in Belfast. Apparently she's trying to get the backstop amended not removed. But all the talk from Tory MPs is that it needs to be taken out all together. So we're still at impasse.

Of course a bit moot anyway as EU saying they won't renegotiate WA, but still.