Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

If I'm trying to be positive, perhaps Corbyn will actually get May to include something in her WA which will make it different and be enough for the HoC to vote on? Perhaps that, frozen as of the date of leaving, we write in "commitments" to keep in line with workers rights which means we can keep gig economy etc I presume ?
"Corbyn will also push Labour’s Brexit plan, which envisages a customs union, a strong single-market relationship and a guarantee on workers’ rights, consumer standards and environmental protections."

... Surely violence is more likely with no deal (food related violence, resource related violence) than with a WA (violence from surely only a few angry Brexiteers?

Or is this naive?

Most leavers think this has been done already from what I gather.
I doubt it will be env as we haven't £ for subsidies and just found gas in N.Sea.
Nor consumer goods - trade with US will be our best bet and keep us allied to US.

If I'm trying to be positive, perhaps Corbyn will actually get May to include something in her WA which will make it different and be enough for the HoC to vote on?

And then what ? Change the WA, and the EU won't sign it off. I guess changing it from Comic Sans to Times New Roman might work

Remainers need to let go of their unicorn too:

• some like Blair are trying to force an artificial choice of Remain vs No Deal, because if the public dare to reject Remain then they must be punished Typical Blairite control freaks, obey us or die.

Remain is dead, because there are few votes in the HoC for it

So there is NO point comparing the WA to Remain
We can't get Remain
The WA is the best we can do

The WA, even with the backstop activated is better than No Deal
The WA allows the possibility of something better if the UK chooses, such as the SM+CU and I'm sure transition would be extended if needed, whatever politicians say no

The WA has the best hope of a Fast Track Rejoin, if transition goes on for long enough for the public to regain sanity
After years of No Deal, the EU won't want us back - we're too big for them to subsidise as a basket case.

No Deal would be a catastrophe, economically & socially
The economy would spiral down, stay down for years and might never recover
The UK would probably break up within a few years - a bad breakup caused by food shortages, deprivation and mass civil disorder

The WA with backstop would be slow decline, which could be reversed if the public ever sees sense
Why choose total disaster when there is something more tolerable available

Plus with workers rights, they can be put into manifesto if needed to be changed, as EU won't be keeping us to them, so really they are flexible depending on who is in power. JC is sure it will be him, Tories know they can tear them up in a few years with little fight.

People can only put off big decisions for so long, and from what I see they have for the last 18 months. A deal would give enough confidence for people to do some decision making now. There will probably be a huge sigh of relief, a bit of a bounce and then a long slow hiss of air going out the economy. But its much more managable than the cliff right now. Well said

Tangentially, I find myself stifling a (slightly hysterical) giggle at the word ‘Brexiteer’.

It’s such a thorough misnomer for people who, having lied flounced and fluked their way to a surprise win, have spent two and a half years delivering fuck all (David Davis anyone?)
Pioneer, Volunteer, Buccaneer, Mountaineer, Engineer...
Brexiteer???
Also, ‘eer’ is a suffix added to French loanwords to turn them into nouns. Treacherous Eurospeak!

I think she will keep backstop.
Change Workers Rights and go back to HoC in Feb.
Leavers think it's done already so no loss of face for Tories, plus can be amended later as required.
JC gets to say he sorted out the deadlock while Tories claim it was done all along anyway.
HoC thinks this is as good as they will get, ERG conceed backstop with understanding they still get to screw workers in long run while looking like they are being conned out of backstop changes by EU - victims!

DG I posted last thread how the New IRA are reportedly planning almost daily attacks after 29 March
So no, they aren't more nuanced now.

All that would surprise me is if they didn't notice / have forgotten that it was bombing a few high value buildings in the City that brought the UK govt to its knees,
not bombing and shooting some poor sods out shopping

{If I'm trying to be positive, perhaps Corbyn will actually get May to include something in her WA which will make it different and be enough for the HoC to vote on? }
No No No (etc)
The choice is stale bread, a jacket potato with a filling that is OK but you are not keen on, or cake. These are the ONLY choices available to the UK.

Tangentially, I find myself stifling a (slightly hysterical) giggle at the word ‘Brexiteer’.

I refuse to use that word. They're regressive numpties, not courageous heroes full of derring-so.

The problem with the WA is that TM is going and, barring a GE, it’s the conservative membership who will choose our new leader.
These are literally the only people in the world who think BoJo would be a brilliant prime minister .

While the EEG are no fan of workers rights, I think it’s a minor issue for them compared to getting out before full implementation of new EU tax regulations (begun on the first of this month, supposed to be in force by Jan1 2020) and getting out of any customs union or regulatory parity, so they can throw out standards that impede free trade.

A chilling prospect that we must not accept for fear of ND.

mother Remainers in the HoC gave up a long time ago
Remain is dead

Refusing to accept anything but remain means choosing No Deal
I refuse to let fanatics on either side force us into that disaster

I refuse to accept it's either their way or the rest of us can fuck off and die

Fast Track Rejoin would not mean giving up all optouts, because for some things the EU would rather we stayed out

e.g. the conditions for joining the Euro are so strict that Sweden which joined in 1994 still hasn't applied to joint he Euro and never will.
It's easy to avoid in practice and the EU learned from Greece it's best not to have problems kids in their Euro.

It's expected that there will be the system of inner & outer EU rings eventually
and that they'd let us be the first into the outer ring, ahead of the others

My MP voted for Cooper, but against Spelman, and also for Brady! Hard to work that one out...

Anyway, I've written to him to say well done, please try harder and don't get fooled by the Maltloaf Compromise...

Ridiculous word isn’t it Scandaloso.

I actually think it’s not just us that see it as laughable. The once proud Brexiteers have started to refer to themselves as Brexiters or even, Brexit supporters.

The mask is slipping.

Scandaloso - wholeheartedly agree.

Remain has hardly any HoC votes.
or courage.
They are NOT going to vote Remain
That unicorn is dead

So those still holding out for Remain can only hope May will revoke at the last moment rather than No Deal
I rate the chance of that at under 1%
I won't gamble with total disaster for that tiny chance

The economic effects, the obliteration of our international reputation, the brain drain, the schism in society - not going away for probably decades.

Agreed-small mindedness has won, for a generation at least.

Looking at the overall picture, ultimately there was one dominant aspect to the hunger for 'control'. Control of laws was a lie as we always controlled all the important stuff; control of money was always spin as we always controlled 99.3% of GDP. All that's left is immigration.

The misguided desire for more immigration control by those resistant to change with a toxic combination of a PM who had an axe to grind after her failure at the Home Office.

While the pend was strong and the UK successful we would always need and attract people. Success attracts energy and activity. As a nation we were (past tense) successful although it wasn't distributed fairly. If you throw a good party, you attract lots of guests, music, food and laughter.

The Brexiteers are dominated by many whose party days are over yes "middle aged, white, middle class and working class, some with degrees, some market traders, farmers (honestly), retired teachers united by complete ignorance about the EU and our relationship with it, and their delusion that somehow British are superior to the rest of the world and able to rise above any adversity."

That superiority led to dislike of change, globalisation and otherness.
Whilst our economy boomed we would always need 'other'. Whilst our economy boomed people born elsewhere would always want to come.

The only way to deliver what the Brexiteers wanted was to become a shrinking economy, an unattractive backwater. The protectionism in the States has the same elements. It will be ironic if Trump's decline changes the path of the US and saves them. We may be left languishing, narrow-minded, insular, narrow, inward-looking, short-sighted, petty, blinkered, myopic, introverted, illiberal and intolerant.

Actually, all May has to do is ignore CU and SM and grant all of his other wishes. No one will be overseeing any of them so MP's can promise unicorns there. If there's no funds computer will say no. Plus Gove has already shown with his plastics policy we can kick that firmly into the long grass with little consequence. (Other than to our PLANET you dimwit).

{The WA is rubbish, can't be renegotiated and will only get a majority if 170 or so MPs do a complete about turn.}
No.
The WA charts leaving on a gradual decline but once the UK signs up to it the slope of the decline is pretty much open for negotiation, like you grabbing the bottom end of a small child's slide. It is a mechanism for forcing serious discussion, as it was obvious from the outset that Cameron and crew had no idea what the hell they wanted.
Yes as it stands if favours the EU, which is what I would expect. UK gov hate it universally because there is no nice cake and probably as important 'Johnny foreigner' wrote most of it so it is not 'sovereign' (or some such bollocks).
If the likes of Yvette Cooper and other like minded (irrespective of party) were to take over proper negotiations with a clear vision of what the UK wants for all it's citizens, and discussed this frankly with the EU, starting on 30 March, the UK might stand a better chance of survival. This is of course very 'unicorny' but at this stage the 'naysayers' in the government at all levels need to be removed.
I would have reasonable faith that the EU would love this too, as they want a close working partnership with the UK.

pound not pend. Typo queen-me.

To the PP who expressed disbelief that no deal Brexit means no Brexit - a recent poll of 8000 found that 26% of those asked thought exactly that.

There are many many stupid and wilfully ignorant people around.