Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

I like Jess Phillips - she's my neighbouring MP. If it comes to the Drowned and the Saved, she'd be in the Saved pile.

Another quote from that article (slightly paraphrasing as too lazy to find it again to copy and paste)...

"I thought I'd met posh people before I was elected, now I realise they were just people who eat olives"

The Queen, having lived through actual emergency shit in WWII and having served herself as a mechanic, is no doubt shaking her head at this bloody mess.

Article = Speech from Jess Philips

My assessment of what will happen:

70% chance of an extension, after which

50% No Deal / 49 % WA / 1% Revoke

(due to May putting party before country)

EU fears short article 50 extension will mean no-deal Brexit in June

Also due to May putting party before country

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/31/eu-fears-short-article-50-extension-will-mean-no-deal-brexit-in-june

EU officials fear Theresa Mayy^ is setting the UK on course for a no-deal exit at the end of June
because she will not have the political courage to ask for the longer Brexit delay they believe she needs.

Senior officials have been war-gaming the likely next steps by the British government,
and believe a delay to the UK’s exit date of 29 March is now inevitable.

But they fear that the prime minister’s strategy of seeking simply to survive from day to day
will lead to her requesting an inadequate short three-month extension for fear of enraging the Brexiters in the Conservative party.

EU officials and diplomats said the danger of the UK then crashing out in the summer was an under-appreciated risk^^
given that the escalation of no-deal planning and the cries of betrayal by Brexiters would give momentum to a cliff-edge Brexitt^.

Well that figures...I managed to get my current contract extended from 29th March end date to 30th June end date so I wasn't left looking for new work in the run up to a potential no deal...

Now it's bloody chasing me

Bloody love jess Phillips:)

I was using "eggs back from an omelette" analogy before the 2016 ref, because it was so obvious:

• 45 years of integrating trade, travel and with EU member Ireland - NI - would take 15-20 years to disentangle without significant pain

• It's a feature, not a bug:
  the original purpose of the EU / EC / Common Market / Coal & Steel Community was to make another war between Germany & France impossible, by integrating the economies so completely

The most patriotic batshitters have been criticising the Royal family's Germany heritage and loyalty to Britain since the 19 Naughties.
Now 115 years on and they still aren't British enough for some ...

I'm still a little bit ... dunno twitching at this apparent assumption that an extension is just a "ring up and ask" type arrangement.

Unless I've been reading the wrong papers, the only grounds the EU will even consider an extension is if the UK has something other than words to trade for it. It's almost exactly like a bank extending an overdraft rather than calling in the receivers. They'd only do it if they saw a credible business plan - underwritten by the customers own capital.

With the proviso the EU has been scrupulous about deferring to the UK in proper terms, it seems they're not able to ask for any extension to be pegged to Theresa Mays departure at the end of it.

I can't help but think if Mays plan hinges on being granted a magic extension, she might be in for a shock.

^ “There’s a growing realisation in the EU that the UK might need longer to get its house in order than the UK itself realises.^

< We realised it a long time ago on Westministenders, mate >

“The bar to extending article 50 for the EU will be quite low - leaders love to kick the can.
If there is a contentious issue, it’s more about the length of any article 50 extension as opposed to the principle of whether there should be one.”

The most patriotic batshitters have been criticising the Royal family's Germany heritage and loyalty to Britain since the 19 Naughties.

I enjoyed Henning Wehns dig at Prince William for supporting Aston Villa ...

Of course, he should be supporting his local team .... Hanover

If they kick it past the date of my early June holiday in Crete I'll be happy. [fed up of The Greater Good].

Unilever are stockpiling magnums and Ben and Jerry's though, so all is not lost.

DG Word here from Berlin and from commentators with good long ears to Brussels
is that any extension would be agreed by the EU

(just a v small chance that some awkward sod, not much affected, vetos just because they cba with Brexshit any longer)

It wouldn't need promise of a GE - which would probably make things worse ! - or a PV

• The EU want to make it clear they are giving the UK every reasonable chance

• Govt systems, cutoms, ports, business, industry, farmers ..... are all pressing for more time to prep for No Deal
  and to give the UK every chance to sign - but not modify - the WA

• They love can-kicking, provided it doesn't make the problem worse

.... that would be the only reason they'd veto:
if the UK clearly intended to use the extra time only to bully Ireland and to continue trying to subvert a few other countries to dump Ireland

If there is a contentious issue, it’s more about the length of any article 50 extension as opposed to the principle of whether there should be one.

Because what happens if the UK ends up having to run elections for MEPs, and by some weird fluke manages to elect 73 rabidly pro-EU MEPs ?

The SOS thought had crossed my mind a few days ago.Though I was thinking more of standing on the White Cliffs and using semaphore

Is that wise Member? You might get knocked over in the rush of true BeLeavers rushing headlong to be first over the edge in pursuit of unicorns!

Thank you, DG for introducing me to Henning Wehn 😂

There's also the very real and serious question of whether the UK can psychically endure even more pratting about beyond what we have been repeatedly and unequivocally told is the date we are leaving the EU.

Not once. Not twice. Not implied. Not hinted. Not suggested. But stated as fact. Again. And again. And again.

.

DG Hence Jo Maugham's support for this Revoke slogon:

"JUST MAKE IT STOP"

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement

But wasn't the withdrawal agreement conditional on the UK Parliament voting on it as well as the EU27 voting on it? Surely when it was 'agreed in November, everyone knew that it still had to get past our Parliament and the EU Parliament

(Sorry, just joined the thread so got 25 pages of catching up to do!)

The thing that just - I don't know how to describe it - it is beyond frustrating- labour has some of the best MP's Jess Phillips/David Lamy
They speak such sense , but nobody in their leadership listens to them..... it just fries my brain

This doesn't look like a continent about to blink, but rather one stifling giggles:^

James Crisp@JamesCrisp6

Brilliantly, Belgium's De Standaard newspaper's icon for Brexit coverage is John Cleese in Monty Python's Ministry of Silly Walks goose-stepping out of a circle of EU stars.

Mother - I don't think the SNP should commit to disbanding post independence, but I do think that they should make it clearer that a vote for independence via the SNP is not a vote for the SNP in the long run

Dh falls into that category - he is not as left wing as me and is naturally distrustful of all politicians except Nicola

I also think that the SNP will naturally (and quite correctly ) splinter once independence is achieved, as its renowned discipline will no longer have a focus. I'm sure there are some Tartan Tories still in the party (I suspect that there are some old timers in the Pollokshields/Crossmyloof branches of the SNP, which cover where I live) - but they can go off and cosy up to Michael Fry who is an old style Scottish Conservative who has come out in favour of independence. Or the old self-defined Scottish Conservative Unionist I was talking to at Hogmanay, who says it will break his heart but post 29 March he will be voting for an independent Scotland in Europe.