Westminstenders: Waiting for a Valentines Miracle

[RedToothBrush]

Guess what folks, we get to do it all over again for Valentine's Day!

Bet you are all looking forward to that.

May has already been told by the EU its a non-starter, and with there being a vote scheduled again in a fortnight, there is little incentive for the EU to shift. And every incentive to just let us stew and think things over.

We are trying to renege on what we signed up to with the Withdrawal Agreement. Which only proves the EU needs the Backstop. Our credibility as a nation to do deals with is shot through the floor. With everyone but those who think they can stitch us up at least.

There is one key development with the latest vote:

The emergence of a new Brexit voting block within Labour, I believe led by Carole Flint. They are supporting Brexit and are prepared to vote with the government and against the Labour Whip.

This negates the Tory Rebel block, meaning May has a majority if she has the ERG on board - this being a big if, of course.

Many other potential rebels who threatened to quit from government, were detered from doing so by a promise from May and the promise that they had another show down on the 14th they could use to block No Deal.

In not quiting they are showing they are committed to some deal brokered by May and not an alternative by Parliament. This is important. There may be no realistic opportunity for anything else to be realistically be tabled by anyone else now.

I don't think they will quit now, if they can see a potential deal present itself.

The way forward now looks to be the Withdrawal Agreement or No Deal only. Keep this in mind and in focus. This will become an increasing pressure and increasingly definitive. Revoke is still on the table, but I just can't see May doing it. Ever.

Whether May can get the EU to back down on the backstop seems unlikely. Its going to be more backwards and forwards on it. Before it becomes obvious its going nowhere. Its just theatre.

What the ERG do next is important. My best guess is they will split into No Deal Hardliners and last minute WA Compromisers. This will leave May short of a majority, but not as far as she has been especially with Labour resolve weakening. I think she may yet get her deal over the line with Labour support of some sort. Probably unofficial rather than direct from public instruction the front bench.

Here's the logic: Corbyn has said he will now discuss matter with her. He still wants to pin Brexit on her and destroy her, but he still wants Brexit and he still wants to keep the Labour Party together despite its differences over Brexit. All without making a clear Labour policy. How does he do this?

The same way he handled the Immigration Bill is possibly the best guess. Plus how can he stop his rebels...? {innocent face emojy} He gets to look tough against May outwardly and make lots of Remainy noises without more outward support for a particular policy. Those awful stupid Northerner MP (or MPs from backward towns if you live in the Metropolian North) who know nothing and screwed Remainia. It plays people off along splits in society, in the hope they don't notice Corbyn really orchestrated it. His MPs in leave areas get to look Leave without consequence, and if it all goes wrong he still get to pin it on May. Thus saving his marginals in both the North and the South 'cos those evil Tories'. And he does stop No Deal in the process. Yes, call me cynical, but thats how he could try and game it. Ultimately Corbyn and May do have certain aligned mutual interests, afterall.

And given there are few alternatives now there apart from Revoke or No Deal, once you think it through doesn't seem as far fetched as it initally sounds. Corbyn certainly seems to have form for it. His priorities are his Party, managing his north / south cultural divide and being seen to kick the Tories.

It'll go to the wire whatever happens, and its hard to see many ways out of this now. We are running out of time, opportunities and options. Of course, this works for May and has been her plan for some time. The question is merely, if she is serious about preventing no deal (and I believe she is) how she persuades either the ERG or Labour to back her.

Afterall, after the WA is done and dusted there is still everything to play for.

Just read this and now am plunging towards the feelings of hopelessness again.

Ivanka Majic
‏*@ivanka*
When I was 14 I lived in a country called Yugoslavia.

This is a civilised country, people said, there will be no war.

We had hyperinflation. That means that they had to knock zeros of the currency so you didn’t have to carry buckets of cash.

This is a civilised country, people said, there will be no war.

We had lots of nationalist chatter. Even some pop songs that triggered fights at school discos.

This is a civilised country, people said, there will be no war.

Then I was 15. Teachers didn’t get paid. My mother was a teacher, so I know.

But this is a civilised country, people said, there will be no war.

It’s the others people blamed. The ones not like us.

But this is a civilised country, people said, there will be no war.

I was in Mostar in school and I wondered how I would get home if there was a war.

But this is a civilised country, people said, there will be no war.

When I was 16 my parents went out to dinner one night. I babysat my siblings. It was a Saturday.

We are going to England, my parents said, we think there will be war.

It was 1991, and there was war.

It is 2019, I am 44, and I live in Britain.

But this is Britain people keep saying.

I've just received a wetherspooons magazine through my door, with a front page article saying how wonderful no deal would be

Dp and I have now agreed not to go to wetherspooons again. I was aware that they were brexiters, but was pretending to ignore the fact for the sake of a cheap all day breakfast.

My area voted heavily for remain (it's a lefty/studenty area), so I am not sure why they thought it would be a good marketing strategy.

@Lucygoeswalkies ...This whole situation is farcical beyond belief. I’m tempted to write an ‘SOS’ letter to the powers that be in Europe.

The SOS thought had crossed my mind a few days ago.Though I was thinking more of standing on the White Cliffs and using semaphore

@Sarahlou63 @catdoctor
Kids ponies (good solid Irish types) will be fine without shoes - but stupid Dutch thing has terribly crumbly feet..... mind you given he believes everything on the roads is out to get him, I fear I am done for - given the lack of medicines and nhs staff to patch me back up

Take it we know that Andrea Leadsom has announced that parliament's half term recess in has been cancelled.

Because they'll get all necessary legislation drafted and agreed in a week right?

Just saw this on the guardian live feed. I confess I live at the other end of the country and Scotland bis not my area of expertise, so wondering what the view is of those living there. Seems like a really bad time for the Scottish parliament to have an election, on the other hand I can see why the SNP might feel they have a good chance to get a majority while everyone is hating the main two parties.

While Brexit machinations continue at Westminster, Thursday at Holyrood sees the first parliamentary vote on the SNP’s budget, with cross-party negotiations ongoing to muster enough support to pass the SNP minority government’s plans. While the SNP have previously relied upon the Scottish Greens, this year a row over council funding means their support is still wavering.

Indeed, the Scotsman is reporting this morning that Nicola Sturgeon has warned her party to prepare for a possible Scottish election if the Holyrood government fails to pass its budget today. According to the Scotsman, during a meeting of the SNP group at Westminster attended by Sturgeon on Monday, she warned her MPs that they should prepare for a snap Holyrood election if the SNP government fails to get its budget through. This adds to speculation that Sturgeon may seek a fresh mandate from the electorate to secure another referendum on independence, as she prepares to reveal her plans in the coming weeks.

The Scottish Green’s Andy Wightman was on BBC Radio Scotland this morning insisting that his party were not being “obstructive”. Although they have the promise of legislation by the end of this parliament and a green light for a local tourist tax, the sticking point remains their call for a hefty increase in spending on local government this year. It’s going to be a long day at Holyrood.

Think back to Yugoslavia - when in 1984 Torville and Dean were wowing the world at the winter Olympics in Sarajevo who would have thought that ten years later the country would have a Civil War? Some people did predict it - Micha Glenny for one, and got called Micha Gloomy for his pains.

By two main parties I obviously mean Labour and Tory across the UK rather than the two main ones in Scotland. My Anglo-centric bias showing there. Sorry

Pain that is a very sobering read. The modern day equivalent perhaps of 'First they came ...'

perverse
EU summary of WA Backstop

europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-18-6423_en.htm

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy I knew someone had posted something for me but couldn't find it again as the threads move so quickly. My head is spinning with trying to make sense of everything.

Just thought I'd share three conversations I had going to and returning from the school run today:

• First with a neighbour who is a very good consultant doctor at Great Ormond street. She crossed the road to hug me. Saying what are we going to do- they're so , so stupid. It's so stupid. People will suffer. So stupid. (She's Romanian born by the way married to a Brit- coming over here saving our children's lives.)
• Next conversation a school Mum whose DH has cancer worrying that his complex cocktail of three drugs won't be available in a few weeks time.

• Next conversation on the way back was with a Dad walking his dog home. I think he voted Leave but not sure. He was saying he can't believe they've not sorted anything out yet and he's really worried about his business .He does a lot of business in Belgium and doesn't know how he'll be able to get stuff in and out. Then in the next breath he said what he's worried more about is a Corbyn government because it would completely change our political system and the country.

FFS he's worried about 5 years of Corbyn, changing the country. Jeez.

Don't know what conclusions to draw from those conversations other than it's unbelievable we got to this beyond clusterfuck -but I knew that already.

The real cost of debt on the UK's poorest families

New analysis shows how the poorest households are breaking under the burden of high-interest debt and unlivable incomes.

news.sky.com/story/the-real-cost-of-debt-on-the-uks-poorest-families-11622442

@BigChocFrenzy am I right in thinking it's basically BINO and that's why there's uproar about the backstop because essentially we could stay in the single customs union forever and that's not leaving "properly"??

Half term break has been cancelled for MPs. Good.

I don't see the SNP calling a snap Holyrood election: methinks The Scotsman is stirring again

The negotiation with the Greens was always going to go down to the wire.

Nicola will be wanting the impact of Brexit to be felt in Scotland before the next election.

As I'm now visually disabled, my fitness, walking and cycling are essential
Living in Germany, it's geared up for cycling - safe lanes almost everywhere - but I didn't dare cycle in England
it's not practical to switch suddenly without infrastructure changes, especially if everthing else is in chaos

I'm old enough that my early childhood was spent before we - and most other ordinary people - had cars.

We lived rurally, but still saw very few carts - horses were expensive buggers even then !

So we walked everywhere,
which worked because we were used to it, it was a normal part of daily life and there was little traffic to avoid
Mum and I used to walk 2.5 miles to kindergarten every day, with me skipping beside her all the way - " you little tyke !" - reciting my times tables and I Spy
That probably set up my lifelong love of walking & exercise

However .... my mum had time set aside for this
and for all the household chores by hand
because my dad on an ordinary salary could support us and they had planned for mum to stay home until I could walk to primary school aged 7

perverse The WA is just the mechanics of leaving, settling ongoing obligations
and its accompanying PD (Political Declaration) sets out only a framework for the future relationship which is to be negotiated in transition

Of the future relationship, only the backstop is legally binding

So, we could in transition choose a closer - BINO - relationship, with SM+CU (hence FOM, ECJ etc) but
if we fall back to the backstop, that's not BINO because:

• FOM goes
• Services go / passporting lost - 80% of our exports at risk there, as soon as the EU can replace those services
• GB is not in the SM, so goods trade will not completely frictionless (but would be for NI as it remains basically in the SM, that's the point) However JIT manufacturing could cope. It could however lower profits and discourage investment

Tony Connelly@tconnellyRTE

@Jeremy_Hunt tells @BBCr4today^ UK govt will propose two things to EU:^

demonstrating unconditional support for the GFA,
and a promise the UK won’t use the border as a back door into the internal market.

Will take some time to work up, extension to A50 will depend on how long

< aaargh !

• Ireland / EU won't believe any "demonstration of support for the GFA" unless it is signing the WA with the legally binding backstop

• ditto re the UK using NI as a backdoor

• btw, it is the UK who genuinely tried to use the backstop as leverage: to get into the SM without obligations. Because of EU concern for NI and because of its tiny economy as a % of EU, May actually partially succeeded, with as frictionless as possible trade outside the SM, but no FOM

• The EU won't grant an extension just to give the UK time to invent already rejected ways to avoid the backstop >

Just catching up is 14th of Feb WA voting day + possible amendments?

lonely yes my leaver friend told me this morning it's a lot of fuss about nothing; operation stack was 3 weeks and it didn't mean no food, just a long queue on the motorway that was a bit annoying. She also says a labour govt would doom Brexit and thinks the market drops every time he is in the media, nothing to do with Brexit (of course!).

Surprise ...

Nick Boles MPP@NickBoles*

On Tuesday Conservative ministers claimed it would be constitutional vandalism for MPs to seize a day of next week’s order paper to pass the Cooper bill.

Today we discover the government will propose no legislation next week.

So it was humbug all along.

< I'd be shocked if a supposedly grownup MP was genuinely shocked >
.......

Tom Newton Dunnn@tnewtondunn*

Extraordinary.

No Govt bills before the Commons at all next week, on #Brexitit^ or anything else.*

Total paralysis confirmed.

< Clock running down to No Deal and the HoC are sitting around with thumbs up their arses - I'd like to think they are talking together, but I think it's just delusional farting >

{ HoC are sitting around with thumbs up their arses - I'd like to think they are talking together, but I think it's just delusional farting}

Creating a peculiar picture.
Remind me not to shake hands with UK politicians please!

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/101500/labour-frontbenchers-who-defied-jeremy-corbyn
Labour frontbenchers who defied Jeremy Corbyn in Brexit vote will not be sacked

Labour frontbenchers who defied Jeremy Corbyn by not voting for a bid to delay Brexit will not be sacked, PoliticsHome has learned.

What a surprise. Isn't the only person he's sacked Owen Smith? Who stood against him in the leadership challenge.

Apparently they did bugger all yesterday too

George Parkerr@GeorgeWParker*

A sign of a House of Commons paralysed by Brexit, waiting for something to happen:

Wed pm, normally one of busiest days, and they are on the adjournment talking about refunds on east coast mainline. < >
Last Wed House rose at 5pm