Is this the start of the civil war?

[Backwoodsgirl]

Looking through these threads we have lots of scared people prepping for the ever increasingly likely No Deal scenario. There is a lot anger, towards remainers and anger towards the government, who quite honestly I wouldn’t trust to look after a cannon ball.

As things disintegrate over the coming days, Are we actually watching the start of the next civil war? I admit without weapons and the depressed nature of British people it will be a crap civil war but non the less violence will happen.

I don’t think NI would vote to re-join Ireland right now but it’s heading that way. So maybe in a decade’s time, or sooner, depending on how catastrophic Brexit is. Not entirely sure it would win in Ireland at the moment either (although I may be way off the mark), there are a lot of people who are ‘in theory I support the idea, but now sure we can afford it at the moment…’

The difficulty for NI is any expectation of an NHS or other benefits which don't exist in the same way in Ireland. I think that would be a reason for both Ireland and Northern Ireland to take a pause before leaping into unification. Quite apart from the obvious discomfort of the unionist community.

No NHS would certainly give me pause if I were a NI voter.

I don’t know about civil war but I do think there will be violent unrest - especially in deprived urban areas where the majority of people voted Remain but will feel the full force of shortages/ increased austerity if we crash out. I think all this talk of prepping and stockpiling is quite naive given the vast amount of people with no means to do that.

People are focusing on rioting and NI.

I am thinking about the army and special / emergency powers. If
there is a national emergency
The army are called in to help
The government instruct the army to do something that falls outside its normal remit - think arresting without regard to habeas corpus, property seizing as discussed recently in the context of martial law.
The army, or part of it, refuses.
A fundamental disagreement between the government and the army (or the police; same situation really) .
People take sides and act accordingly.

This to me would be more conducive to what would traditionally be called civil war - 2 sides, armed and organised with a clear unifying issue. Not that far-fetched seeing the split the Brexit had caused between the civil service and the government.

I don't think civil war, there were too many places who were over whelmingly leave, they'll have nothing to fight about.
Maybe a couple of demos that might get a bit out of hand, in London, and rioting will probably be contained to London too.
As i'm tsc (t'other side country) it won't affect us.

ChariotsofFish I read that tweet about Yugoslavia and it made my blood run cold. Numerous replies from other people who were also in former Yugoslavia in the run up to the war agreeing that the signs are very similar. My head says it will never happen but reading that was genuinely frightening.

I don't think civil war, there were too many places who were over whelmingly leave, they'll have nothing to fight about.

You're assuming people are fair and logical.

If things get really shit they'll riot because it'll all be the EU's fault for denying them their dream Brexit.

@Hermagsjesty , you say all this talk of prepping and stockpiling is the problem.

1. Tell that to MoD
2. Tell that to the supermarkets who wrote to the government about food shortages
3. I have been boring everyone on here rigid for months with my 3 day buffer of food and supplies suggestion. I am an actual prepper. I have said it is up to people's personal circumstances as to whether they want to do more.

I really don't see how any of that is upping the tension. I do not intend to give out my advice much past mid February because then I think it will be disruptive. If people haven't taken some steady proportionate steps by then, they will be in panic buying territory. Carefully bulking up your pantry is not panic buying.

Don't blame the people on whom this crap is inflicted.

I don't think civil war, there were too many places who were over whelmingly leave, they'll have nothing to fight about.

do you think a civil war is just neighbours fighting with each other!

@bellinisurge I’m really sorry if I have offended you and I absolutely don’t blame you or other preppers for doing what you think is necessary and sharing your wisdom. But my point is that most people can not afford to prep - my DH works with very vulnerable people in a deprived urban area and the effect on their mental health of the possibility of a no deal Brexit that they can’t afford to prepare for is absolutely devastating.

My 3 day plan suggestion was doable by everyone except the very very poorest without a home.
I'm not offended, I've got a thick skin about people slagging off prepping. I just wanted to correct the mistake that I and other Preppers are only interested in people with spare money. And that only people rolling in spare cash can prep.
I would respectfully question why anyone in poverty who was in a position to vote thought "things can't get worse so I will vote Leave to stick it to the Tories ". Under No Deal, things would obviously get worse and if you are already last in the queue now, No Deal will make that queue longer not shorter. This is not magic special knowledge. This is bloody obvious.

The more people take steps to build a buffer in their own supplies, the easier it will be for authorities to focus on the very vulnerable.

I agree with the points people made regarding the NHS, the current demographic and unionist feeling in NI under current circumstances.

Ditto a feeling of 'we can't afford it' in Ireland - though polls show unification would get a majority I believe.

But I think the type of Brexit changes things considerably. BINO - much the same. No deal - oh look Ireland has food and an operating health system and they're in the EU. But in that case I think the NI SoS world say no to a poll, especially if the DUP told the balance of power in Westminster.

And the more senior British politicians and journalists insult Ireland, the more nationalist feeling is stirred here. We might just vote to spite the Conservative and Unionist Party, even if it makes us worse off (does that sound familiar? ).

ILove

Well, it's pretty much neighbours fighting each other.
I had serb friends who managed to leave the former Yugo days before they were called to fight their neighbours and family members.
So, yes it does happen.

With respect, I think it’s also about having a life stable and unchaotic enough to be able to prep - which many people don’t. Again, I’m absolutely not slagging off prepping or suggesting you are in any way to blame for the anguish and anxiety that the looming possibility of a no deal Brexit has caused. I’m blaming the government for treating its nation’s mental health so casually and not considering the impact this level of uncertainty on very vulnerable people. It’s also worth pointing out these people in particular didn’t vote leave - as most people in deprived urban areas didn’t. I suppose all I’m saying is I won’t be at all surprised if people in their position resort to rioting/ unrest.

@Hermagsjesty , the government and the Leave vote didn't give a shit about NIreland and so the chances of it giving a shit about anyone else is pretty slim.
The best way for the ordinary person to help the most vulnerable is to take steps to prep for themselves and this keep out of the way.

Well, it's pretty much neighbours fighting each other.

Yes if those neighbours are on opposing sides, but if your neighbours are all in agreement, of course they aren’t going to fight each other! That doesn’t mean there’ll be no civil war that’s not how it works!

@bellinisurge I hadn’t thought of it like that - but I think the idea of people who can afford to prepping as much as possible so that the most vulnerable don’t have to is a really excellent point.

I think an absence of ready food supplies will make people a little crosser than they were with each other.

When shelves are bare and everything is generally shite people will find something to fight over with their fellow Leave voting neighbour.

We import 30% of our food from the EU.

That means 70% of our food is either home grown or imported from elsewhere and will be unaffected.

So even in the worst case scenario we will not have "no food".

I think many English people are only too aware of the potential for violence in NI. We didn’t endure the troubles but people of my age flinch when we see an unattended bag. A close relative was hospitalised by a bomb here in London. It’s very live in my mind.

Maybe for younger people it’s less real though ?

That means 70% of our food is either home grown or imported from elsewhere and will be unaffected. So even in the worst case scenario we will not have "no food".

Well Im not sure why you think the food from elsewhere won't be affected by supply chain issues etc? It doesn't get teleported into the country.

We are able to produce 50% of the annual food we eat in this country. Most of it during the summer and autumn months though, it isn't a constant supply. Which means that we have 100% of the population all wanting that 50% of the food. Prices will rocket and those with money will be able to afford it more easily meaning those without money get even less than that 50%.

So, no we wouldn't have no food. But most of us couldn't last long on 50% even if there was a way of distributing it fairly and evenly.

Well Im not sure why you think the food from elsewhere won't be affected by supply chain issues etc? It doesn't get teleported into the country.

If there are hold ups at the channel ports you simply divert boats from elsewhere to other ports. That cannot be impossible to organise.