Is this the start of the civil war?

[Backwoodsgirl]

Looking through these threads we have lots of scared people prepping for the ever increasingly likely No Deal scenario. There is a lot anger, towards remainers and anger towards the government, who quite honestly I wouldn’t trust to look after a cannon ball.

As things disintegrate over the coming days, Are we actually watching the start of the next civil war? I admit without weapons and the depressed nature of British people it will be a crap civil war but non the less violence will happen.

Yup, those savage Irish fighting amongst themselves. How distasteful.

Let's hope the Real IRA (or whatever they are calling themselves these days) have forgotten that the U.K. mostly didn't care very much about bombs in Belfast, but bombs in Brighton and London were a big deal.

It’s not war, it’s a negotiation which has been conducted badly by tm. Parliament is just about now doing it’s job by giving her some teeth. It will go to two minutes to midnight and the pressure will continue to ramp up, we are no way through the worst. I would be a rubbish negotiator because I hate the game playing and grandstanding but that is where we are. It’s awful for members of the public to watch but it’s unavoidable. It may all fail so prep as best you can but she is highly likely to get some concessions irrespective of the current noise. We can only prep and sit tight.

Misti I am sure you didn’t mean it this way at all but that comment sounds like you’re saying “as long as they just stick to bombing Belfast” (recent bombs/scare were in Derry BTW)

Max it was intended to be read with a raised eyebrow. People assume that any violence will stay in Ireland. Based on what worked last time, Irish nationalists might think that mainland bombs are more effective.

If U.K. intelligence is weakened by Brexit then there must be some risk of violence spilling over.

(Belfast and Brighton chosen for purely alliterative purposes. I know the car bomb was in Derry.)

Ah yes I get you now. Tone hard to interpret here and I admit to being a touch sensitive on this topic. I might also blame my head cold and sinus infection

It isn’t just Theresa May sat negotiating, they hired a negotiation team, of which the requirement was to have x years of proven experience. The fact people believe she has done it alone and compiled documents etc is ridiculous.

How can anybody be angry with remainers????? They didn't cause this. It's a twisted world we live in.

I'm a very strong remainer, but I'm not that angry with leavers, it's not their fault they were misled and manipulated.

I think the poor and vulnerable seem to be worn down and resigned to it all after years of austerity.

They're not though, that's why so many of them voted Leave.

All the poor people I know voted remain. Most poor inner cities voted remain.

I'm not worried about a civil war . . . but I find the 'civil war' rhetoric concerning tbh because usually when there is a concerted push on civic disobedience stories, it's because the government is going to try to introduce more extreme 'security' measures.

I'm worried about war. Very very worried. Probably not English people killing other English people though.

If there are real shortages of food for a few days, yes I can imagine in a few areas, a bit of looting going on. There will be people who do this without much excuse.
But no there will not be a civil war. Civil wars happen in the main when lower middle classes have been screwed and having left to lose. That is not going to happen. The poorest and dispossessed history shows, will have a riot, but they don't tend to do civil wars.

The troubles in NI would have a high risk of restarting if there was a hard border imposed. But its not going to happen. Ireland has the power of veto.

I think if there’s a no deal Brexit it may not be exactly civil war, but there will be violence. In Northern Ireland certainly. Civil disobedience/widespread rioting across the UK. Massively increased crime. In the medium term possibly a paramilitary wing of the Scottish independence movement developing.

I think it will stop short of full civil war because no deal Brexit will be followed by whatever deal we can get with the EU within a year, once people see the real consequences. If it doesn’t I imagine there will be a referendum on Irish reunification and NI will leave the UK. As will Scotland.

But war’s not impossible. There was a thread on Twitter yesterday from someone who escaped Yugoslavia and came to the UK as a teen and she was saying people said the exact same things then in Yugoslavia as people are saying in the UK now (war won’t happen here, this is a civilised country).

If it doesn’t I imagine there will be a referendum on Irish reunification and NI will leave the UK.

No one ever seems to consider whether Ireland would vote for that.

Naive to think Ireland would vote for that.
The GFA required Ireland to change its constitution and give up a territorial claim to NIreland. You can only change the Irish Constitution by a legally binding referendum. There was one. The people spoke. The constitution was changed.

Well yes, there would have to be a binding referendum and constitutional change. If you change the boundaries of your country it is a massive constitutional change. My assumption is that the effects on no deal Brexit on NI would impact on the Republic sufficiently for there to be a majority for reunification on both sides of the border.

I wouldn't jump to that assumption.

What will they do? Hurl crumpets at each other? Tut loudly?

No, we won't have any f*cking crumpets.

Of course there wont be civil war since the lines are not clear enough. Nobody knows who is who. But rioting if people can't get food or are told its rationed is not unlikely IMO.

{But rioting if people can't get food or are told its rationed is not unlikely IMO.}
It doesn't take much to stir up significant trouble. Even an evening out at the pub can result in serious repercussions.
There are also elements who would go out of their way to start fights.
Civilisation in the UK, as many places, is only a thin veneer.

If there are riots, it will be because there is a temporary shortage of food. People would see a lorry delivering food to a local supermarket, start queuing to buy it, then there will be panic there will not be enough so some will use force. Then others will jump on it as an excuse to loot non food stuff. Could see it happening for a few nights, then would fade away as the police come down very heavily on it, perhaps with the help of the military. But it would only happen in a small number of places, and would be quickly stamped out.

I think it'd get through in Ireland (R of), bellini.

I think there's a high chance the NI SoS won't call one though, even if the people of NI are clamouring for one. And especially not if the DUP told the balance of power in Westminster.

@Apileofballyhoo I'd like to think that Ireland would open its arms and say "you've had enough of that shit, come here", but that might also be why Ireland wouldn't say that. The unionist community need to change their view and a simple 51% in NI wouldn't cut it in my view. Look at the 48% Remain view over here in UK. And we haven't had time to feel a couple of centuries worth of suspicion about the Leave position.

{But it would only happen in a small number of places, and would be quickly stamped out.}
Although the Gilets Jaune movement in France has been taken over by extremists, the French authorities had something like 90,000 police/army kept busy, which is almost all the UK can muster.
I don't know what the tally is now but before Christmas it had cost over a Billion and the 'knock on' effects of disruption to businesses is estimated at around 10 Billion.