I am thinking EU should lift their backstop demand (Irish MNers?)

[YeOldeTrout]

Bear with me, I'm a rabid pro-EU person & Remainer, actually.

But if UK leaves on 'No Deal' we're going to have hard border in Ireland from 29/30 March 2019, anyway. If EU allows removal of backstop, there's (how ever long) transition period of UK abiding by GFA and no hard border, until end 2020 or end 2021 maybe. GFA may be screwed over after that given the parlous talents of UK to negotiate with EU, but at least there's a few extra yrs of peace and stability in Ireland first.

I know it's not EU policy to be like children 'kick the can down the road', but it's the lesser of evils, if removing Backstop demand could get WA approved by UK Parliament now.

EU will only lift Backstop if Ireland agrees. Would Ireland prefer hard-border. Is EU too proud? EU should only do this with mega-plans about supporting Ireland in threatened legal action of GFA violated at end of transition period.

Thoughts from Irish (including Norn) MNers?

'Well she seems to me to be full steam ahead with Brexit '

I agree it looks that way but I don't understand why. Yes, keep the ERG on side, and yes it would probably really massage her ego to be 'The Woman Who Delivered Brexit', but surely she knows that the celebrating would be dying down pretty quickly once the reality of a No Deal hit home. I can't believe she would want her own lovely legacy being trashed forever when people had to face reality. I honestly don't know what to think anymore. Everything has gone batshit

What is the ERG?

European Research Group - Jacob Rees-Mogg and his fellow weirdos

I don't think any intelligent human would blame the EU?

Such a ridiculous name. Makes it sound like they actually engage with Europe whereas all they do is lie and fear-monger.

Well she seems to me to be full steam ahead with Brexit '

I agree it looks that way but I don't understand why

She doesn't in her heart of hearts if she's got one want No Deal. She isn't that stupid and I don't think she's (quite) that bent on destruction. She is letting the clock run down and squeezing Parliament to the point where the only thing they can do is pass her WA when it comes back to the vote.

'I don't think any intelligent human would blame the EU?'

Haha - this is the most unhinged wing of the Tory party we're talking about The EU are the root of all evil as far as they are concerned. They are going to moan and whinge and whine until the end of time no matter what happens, and everything will be the fault of the EU

I don't think any intelligent human would blame the EU?'

Suggesting the intended audience isn't intelligent humans.

If the EU and Ireland don’t want a physical border and not even rapid Brexiteers want it, who physically would put it up?

I am asking a practical question, btw. Voted Remain.

Well, they're talking about these magic-sounding 'technological solutions', aren't they, to avoid a physical border. And/or 'trusted trader' schemes or some such shit.

If the EU and Ireland don’t want a physical border and not even rapid Brexiteers want it, who physically would put it up?

Someone with a good life insurance package.

There's what you want and what the law requires you to do. WTO requires you to have control of your trading area. Doesn't need to be a physical border but it has to be something.

Well, there is no other way of having control, without a physical border.

How does the backstop tie in with the WTO requirement?

It's all Alice in Wonderland stuff.

One point, though, is the the ERG may appear as the loony fringe, infact if you are rich and want to continue to avoid tax, you would do anything to avoid the directives on anti-tax avoidance measures.

I guess if RoI & Norn don't have any controls over goods going back & forth, there are these problems:

EU could say RoI is violating its obligations for how to trade with 3rd party countries. EU probably has some kind of enforcement or punishment scheme for misbehaviour members.

Other 3rd party countries could appeal to the WTO to say that ROI & Uk are violating WTO rules. These other 3rdP countries could ask for damages that they weren't treated fairly. They would probably pursue UK for damages (Uk is richer country).

Except WtO is on verge of becoming completely toothless, and its arbitration scheme took months or years even when operating at its best. So maybe WTO is irrelevant.

However, if WTO is irrelevant, than all sorts of countries in the world are going to start making up their own petty rules for how to trade with each other. I'm not sure if anyone knows what that picture would be like, but it would strongly discourage international trade & investment, I expect.

Barclays Bank transferred 190 billion euro assets to Irish units before brexit deal. They are moving investments for their EU clients to Ireland. The EU are getting schemes in order to protect investment by moving it from UK to EU. That's a big hit financially for UK.

Some indication of how NI voted and how the move towards a UI is likely to be impacted in the event of no deal

It's not only NI that would be involved in a United Ireland deal. Ireland would be too. And I'm not sure we're ready for that particular headache. Ireland is doing just fine as it is. NI has been too fucked up for too long to integrate with us. To me it's like taking on Iraq. A war torn country and mindset. Hell no! England can keep it.

Also, in terms of the people who do not want a United Ireland, they are not just 'meh' about it. They vociferously don't want it. You can bring a horse to water, but if it's a British horse, it ain't gonna drink Irish water.
That's 42% hard line Brits. Lol. Who the fuck wants them?

Everyone seems to think that if NI decides they want to be part of the Republic, we'll welcome them home. You need to think twice about that one.

It's basically the same situation as the Ukraine only in reverse.

Ukraine had zero tariffs with Russia hence by organising a coup, and signing a trade deal with the EU the next day, they would have indirectly gained tariff free access to the Russian market.

Didn't end well.

Through the Common Travel area, which predates all EU treaties, Northern Ireland basically gets access to Irish, and therefore EU markets.

Which is why the EU is having such a hypocritical girly strop about it.

Basically they need treaty change and are trying to force the onus on the UK instead.

Which, isn't going to end well for them.

The onus is on the UK. They wanna leave? Fine. Leave. Don't let the door hit you on the way out. They wanna open up a can of worms? Bring it baby!

"The onus is on the UK. They wanna leave? Fine. Leave. Don't let the door hit you on the way out. They wanna open up a can of worms? Bring it baby!"

Glad we don't have to worry about Eire.

Though given the proportion of the Irish economy which exists to serve UK demand, and your extreme lack of infrastructure to import or export your wares, I welcome the contribution you will be making to my tax bill. :)

'Though given the proportion of the Irish economy which exists to serve UK demand'

'Exists to serve'?
'Eire'?

Spoken like a true colonialist

Spinflight is clearly having a Brexit panic and lashing out all around it.
Let us take a moment to pity Spinflight.

Apparently Brexit has petty nationalistic overtones for the Irish.

Interesting, didn't know that.

Assumed that Varadkar was just a puppet but every day is a school day.