Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/post-brexit-food-price-spike-could-increase-uk-death-rate-study-warns_uk_5c4eedd3e4b0287e5b8ca720/?__twitter_impression=true
No-Deal Brexit Food Price Spike Could Cause 12,000 UK Deaths, Study Warns
Experts say more expensive fruit and veg may push up number of fatal heart attacks and strokes.

"The least disruptive scenario modelled, which assumes a free-trading agreement with the EU and half of non-EU fruit and veg importers, could increase coronary heart disease and stroke deaths by approximately 0.3% (1,360 deaths) and 1.0% (2,740 deaths) respectively.”

Pippa Crerar@pippacrerar
Wherefore art this “new backstop protocol which would secure wide consent” of which you speak?!

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
Well here's a thing. Secret talks between ERG and govt ministers and gobetweens on plan to rewrite Withdrawal Agreement. From leaked WhatsApp messages:

^Here's full text of the proposals.
Wonder what @WeyandSabine or @StefaanDeRynck make of them...?^

Alberto Nardelli @albertonardelli
As a side note, amusing how some MPs are all pro-citizens rights in public, and in private list it under disadvantages

When is a backstop not a backstop? When it's a front stop. Which no one knows what it looks like.

Though I'm going to guess it's looks a lot like white with rainbow farts and a horn.

Oh god it's got a name already.

Steve Baker MP @stevebakerhw
“The Malthouse Compromise” after @kitmalthouse, who brought us together

We need to get out of the EU on time and with a functioning government.

This is how.

This new Malthouse thing is not new and it's nonsense. It's an ERG no deal document.

twitter.com/Xander_Fox_/status/1090033474436808705?s=19

What's worrying is that some Tory remainers are involved.

Robert Peston@peston
This is a big story. I‘ve been contacted by a load of Brexiter and Remainer Tories mystified that @theresa_may has rebuffed a Brexit plan devised on her own backbenches by soft-Brexiters and the ERG. You can read their own WhatsApp briefing note on it from attached screenshots.

It was devised by @NickyMorgan01, Stephen Hammond and @RobertBuckland for the Remainers and @JacobReesMogg and @SteveBakerHW for the ERG, with @kitmalthouse as convener. There have been lots of meetings with @theresa_may and her team about it, including lunch with the PM today.

As you can read, it consists of a three year transition instead of two, to either a no-deal Brexit or a deal of some sort, with the Northern Ireland border kept open by a new backstop consisting of a permanent ‘lite’ Free Trade Agreement. There is no guarantee of course that...

...the EU would buy it. But what has surprised its authors has been Downing Street’s hostility to it, given the very positive welcome accorded it by Tory backbenchers of all persuasions. Some Tory MPs fear Whitehall’s lead Brexit negotiator Olly Robbins is trying to kill it...

...for mere “not-invented-here” reasons. Given how the PM is struggling to secure any kind of consensus in Parliament for her plan, her colleagues think she should give this “grassroots” proposal a proper run for its money. The risk to her if she does not is that her party...

...will insist she packs her bags and leaves Downing Street even sooner than she expects.

Hmm. I've also seen it described as everyone unicorns strapped together.

We are seriously heading to a no deal of Tory rebels are getting behind this rubbish.

twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1090028767706312704?s=19

red That is very cleverly drawn up to be ambiguous & vague about what happens if No Deal found during transition

• the RoI & EU would require legal language that the UK can't get out of the backstop until it is replaced by something else that ensures no addittional border

imo, after Dec 2021 the UK is no longer specifically stopped from exiting the backstop

All that is really offered is negotiations under WTO Gatt terms, which is completely insufficient

The border problem is not tariffs, its NTB (non-tariff barrier) checks e.g. animal & plant products being the most worrying, but in fact on all goods.

I am very concerned that Nicky Morgan, a Remainer, has put her name to this
I fear she has been hoodwinked, probably seeing what she wants to see

If JRM - and I suspect some very clever lawyer / drafters - have conned sufficient Remainers, then this amendment will pass

I doubt if the experienced EU negotiators & legal staff, with all their experience of what makes a legally watertight deal, would be fooled

but I expect many MPs and most of the public will be

This amendment is dangerous - it could spike the chances of getting No Deal
... which of course is why JRM is pushing it and opposing the Brady one, which is more obvious
Devious Fucker

The NI border cannot be kept open unless it retains its current frictionless trade with the RoI
This can only be via membership of the SM plus a Customs Arrangement

Negotiating under WTO GATTS - which concentrates on bloody tariffs - and the basic UK-EU FTA stated as the aim is nowhere near enough

oh, as GD2 has linked, it's just copied from the last bloody ERG proposal

Downing Street hostility is to me more confirmation that May really doesn't want No Deal
... and she is aware this could easily lead to it if passed:

She has too many MPs who would not understand why the EU won't accept this Repainted Unicorn Bollocks
and hence would then refuse to pass anything else.

I think you might be right BigChoc. May knows this is. BS so isn't entertaining it. It's very concerning softer Brexit Tories are though. May's stance is bad enough, however.

This is the old ERG proposal - see the basic principles carried over, just better disguised:

2mbg6fgb1kl380gtk22pbxgw-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/A-Better-Deal-and-a-Better-Future.pdf

WTF?

It makes no sense. A backstop-lite won’t be accepted by the EU. But yet will still make the DUP lose their shit.

It’s a cynical attempt to get us to the Singapore-style tax haven with an ‘upside’ to ERG supporters that even if it doesn’t work it creates more distractions and tick tock tick tock, run down the clock.
Nicky Morgan is a bear of very little brain if she has really fallen for this.

PMK

That Sammy Wilson tweet could easily be talking about taking advantage of English chaos.

When is TM going to figure out that going softer (to the point of revoking) is the only way out? Unless she's the mastermind behind all the negative press about no deal in the last week or two (doubtful), and had a grand scheme to quickly steer public opinion?

Seems clear that allowing the likes of the ERG to hold sway has shown them to be the gobshites they really are, and now revoke looks even more sensible.

Bracing for today. I don't really think she's a tactical mastermind at all. And we know Sammy Wilson isn't because he's tweeted his plan 🤦‍♀️

What these "will of the people " numpties forget is that Ireland accepted the terms of the GFA through a constitutional change which can only happen via an actual referendum - a legally binding one. Part of that is No Hard Border. Ireland does not have wiggle room on the No Hard Border thing because the Irish constitution doesn't allow it.
And the E.U. is unlikely to want a member state to go against its constitution for the benefit of the UK. So it's not just negotiating tactics, it's what the law as expressed by the will of Irish people have said.
Riddle me that, JRM?

So it's not just negotiating tactics, it's what the law as expressed by the will of Irish people have said.
Riddle me that, JRM?

I suspect that this whole thing is about the ‘will’ of certain people only. JRM and his ilk will care not one joy about the ‘will’ of the Irish. They don’t care about the ‘will’ of nearly half the people who voted in 2016.

Thank God May isn't getting behind that amendment. All it is is skipping towards No Deal because it comes in the form of the the Child Catchers carriage.

What the fuck is Nicky Morgan thinking??

Furthermore, if we had another Referendum and it came out Remain, JRM wouldn't be interested in the 'will of the people' - he would still be agitating to Leave.

I’m ambivalent on Nicky Morgan and have been since she was Education Sec and came out with the disingenuous “average teacher’s pay is £37 500” line to discredit striking teachers - using the less representative mean rather than the conventional and better representative median.
My revenge is to use this named example in lessons as an illustration of politicians’ ignorance and/or duplicity.

Furthermore, if we had another Referendum and it came out Remain, JRM wouldn't be interested in the 'will of the people' - he would still be agitating to Leave.

He would declare that the people were traitors to the will of the people. That we were betraying ourselves through our terrible failure to enforce our will. At this point a hole in the spacetime continuum would be torn open and JRM would disappear in a puff of spluttering tweed.

I didn't think it was an amendment. Its a new plan entirely.

With an alternative lack of direction, May will have a tough time fighting this off.

Do you think so Red? I’d have thought the EU would shut it down quite quickly. It isn’t a proper backstop and they’ve already said, again and again, no more negotiating.

It looks to me like an ERG ploy to split backing between this and the Brady amendment. More time wasting.