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Brexit

Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/01/2019 09:52

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

OP posts:
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 29/01/2019 12:01

If anyone needs anything soothing to listen to tonight and is a Dr Who fan I can highly recommend Tom Bakers new book 'scratchman' in audio, It's very lovely to have his dulcet tones telling you a bed time story (and he's a remainer too Wink )

Weezol · 29/01/2019 12:04

I was rather impressed, though it did mean we had to sit down and try and come up with a way of explaining this clusterfuck that a 6 year old could vaguely understand.

Any chance of a recap? I'm pretty sure I sometimes almost sort of get it but am unable to show my working...I promise not to shout out or need to go for a wee halfway through.

umpteennamechanges · 29/01/2019 12:10

Watching Parliament Live while working from home. Only catching snippets while my laptop crashes and restarts but they are just bloody point scoring as usual during Treasury Questions.

The whole way our Parliament works just lends itself to point scoring and sniping remarks rather than getting the right things done for the right reason for the good of the country.

There must be better ways of running the legislature. I think after my Ireland reading is done I might be moving on to research models used elsewhere so I at least can articulate what might work more than than the 'WTF' I can currently manage Confused

Scandaloso · 29/01/2019 12:12

'Labour sources now say party WILL back Cooper and it WILL be a three line whip - leader's office not yet confirming tho..'

^^ from Laura kurnssberg's Twitter

Scandaloso · 29/01/2019 12:13

Kuenssberg

PerverseConverse · 29/01/2019 12:15

Beat me to it @Scandaloso.

I was listening to the bit before and it seemed they were saying that MPs are going to get TM to go back to the EU and demand changes to the agreement. I thought the EU had basically said fuck off to that suggestion?

PerverseConverse · 29/01/2019 12:18

Sorry if I'm repeating anything as haven't caught up since last night.

Positive news is my brexit boxes are nicely stocked now and my mum has more supplies.

1tisILeClerc · 29/01/2019 12:20

The EU have been consistent with saying no changes since November so the chances of changes other than font size or colour of paper are slim.
Any changes would need all 27 countries to dead, run it past lawyers, debate and agree as one. I hope it doesn't happen and I really doubt it would.

DadDadDad · 29/01/2019 12:25

Perverse - I wonder in a sense whether that matters to May. She goes to EU and says Parliament has told me to renegotiate the backstop. Either EU starts to panic about no deal and offer something that MPs will accept, or EU stands firm and May says "I tried, this is still the only deal, look it's late Feb now, approve this or it's no deal and you don't want that."

Either way, she can then claim that her persistence won the day.

umpteennamechanges · 29/01/2019 12:38

I agree with Dad - this is the plan.

DarlingNikita · 29/01/2019 12:41

I agree with Dad except that I think scenario 1 will never happen and it'll just be 2. May knows that and is banking on it.

umpteennamechanges · 29/01/2019 12:44

EU confirm again that they won't accept any changes to the WA

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-vote-eu-parliament-theresa-may-verhofstadt-irish-backstop-border-a8751986.html

umpteennamechanges · 29/01/2019 12:45

I wonder if they've thought about projecting this onto the side of Westminster?

Or maybe have it iced onto cupcakes and delivering them to MPs

Or twenty foot high red letters on the green?

LonelyandTiredandLow · 29/01/2019 12:48

Boris admitting that there was no plan for no deal

DadDadDad · 29/01/2019 12:52

Nikita etc - I agree scenario 2 (running down the clock and options until MPs have no choice but to approve her deal) is more likely, but it has often been said by commentators looking at previous EU negotiations / treaties / deals that agreement often goes right to the wire, so I think the EU shifting at the eleventh hour is a possibility.

HanWilk · 29/01/2019 12:56

Chris Williamson on Politics live isn't doing anything helpful for Corbyn or the Labour party.

PerverseConverse · 29/01/2019 12:57

Fuck

1tisILeClerc · 29/01/2019 12:59

{but it has often been said by commentators looking at previous EU negotiations / treaties / deals that agreement often goes right to the wire, so I think the EU shifting at the eleventh hour is a possibility.}

When dealing with member countries, but I don't think this is the case with third countries, which the UK will be.

umpteennamechanges · 29/01/2019 13:00

Niche I know but as a volunteer at a wildlife hospital this makes me beyond sad.

I know that they're 'alien species' but the thought of turning injured wildlife away is so beyond my imagination Sad

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/grey-squirrels-brexit-illegal-aliens-muntjac-deer-injured-kill-wildlife-invasive-non-native-species-a8739316.html?fbclid=IwAR2X1JALMwfc1TSO3lJOLWWQUgD57rXEsWq_GzK0PY6nYngxNNOyU5JkAb8

1tisILeClerc · 29/01/2019 13:01

Don't forget that the UK has always been a thorn in the EU's side and cabinet ministers have expressed their intention to be as disruptive as possible. Not a good stance for negotiations with a trade bloc which the UK will have to continue trading with if it wants to eat.

IsobelKarev · 29/01/2019 13:13

EU confirm again that they won't accept any changes to the WA

I'm getting bloody bored of hearing that from the EU - they must be getting so pissed off with having to repeat themselves! It's like trying to talk to small children.
DC: Can I have ice cream for dinner
Me: No
DC: Please
Me: No
DC: But I really want ice cream for dinner
Me: No
repeat ad nauseum.

Tbf, most parents end up getting really angry if the nagging doesn't stop and start to issue sanctions. I wouldn't blame the EU if they took that route (though obvs I hope they won't).

GD12 · 29/01/2019 13:26

Looks like Cooper /Boles will lose

twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1090239516185632768?s=19

umpteennamechanges · 29/01/2019 13:39

Now watching 10 minute bill section of Parliament. Poor Labour MP is having to shout due to all the discussions and chatter on the benches.

Shouldn't be allowed...imagine trying to run a meeting that way. Angry

umpteennamechanges · 29/01/2019 13:40

My prediction is still that all amendments will lose

So a couple of weeks really well used Hmm

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 29/01/2019 13:46

In case anyone doubted that UKIP are the new BNP (though of course unlikely anyone on this thread did)

We would classify anyone prepared to vote for this agreement as a national traitor, or state enemy – and we’re watching you

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ukip-denies-national-traitor-brexit-leaflets_uk_5c4f2296e4b06ba6d3bf6e86?utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law
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