Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

Peregina - no we can't have another ref as we proved the 1st time around - they are hugely flawed. Although a 2nd ref would be more knowledgeable of the actual outcome, with Leavers still shouting "project fear" even at the supermarkets admitting they will have no food, it is clear little has changed.

A GE on the other hand... Although I think the secret memo warning of riots is very true. And, contrary to what my leaver friend thinks, it will mainly be disenfranchised right wing voters - the ones who voted for the shitshow in the first place.

I'm still quite angry that half of the country has been ignored, swept into this and now are going to be (albeit well fed on our stockpiles) subjected to mobs and thugs because they were all so pig ignorant in the first place.

Peter geoghegan @ Petergeoghegan
I’m going to call this. This ‘Plan A’ will go nowhere and is a stalking horse for ERG who actively want no deal to look like they’re compromising (on something EU will never agree to) while soft Tories get played. And yet more time is wasted. So textbook Brexit then

This is reflective of the response I'm seeing this morning. You are only impressed if your first name is Boris, in which case its a 'breakthrough'.

All the talk about a new plan and negociating this and that with the EU....
The EU has just reiterated AGAIN that négociations have been done. That’s it. There is no renégociations to be done again.

I think that’s why TM doesn’t want to endorse the ‘new idea’ from the Tory grassroots. She knows the EU isn’t going to accept it.

@channel4News
There’s no negotiation between the EU and UK, that negotiation is finished.”

The EU’s Deputy Chief Negotiator for Brexit Sabine Weyand says that the controversial 'backstop' was heavily shaped by British negotiators and that it will not be amended.

Dan Hodges @dpjhodges
IDS backs Malthouse plan. Clear whatever its merits re-the EU, this is the only game in town now for May. Which leaves two questions. Will she clearly endorse it. And will Bercow allow it.

The Bercow question is interesting... Brady will be selected. Malthouse? Hmmm.

Also Dan Hodges

Dan Hodges @ dpjhodges
Lot of people saying "EU won't go for this compromise, so why will MPs back it". Worth pointing out people were also saying the EU wouldn't contemplate the sort of extension proposed in the Cooper amendment.

. @ twlldunn
I saw The Malthouse Compromise supporting British Sea Power at King Tut’s Wah Wah Hut in ‘99. Terrible band.

Cooper-Boles in the other hand sounds like a firm of chartered surveyors. Head office in Swindon.

Andy Winter @ andywinter26
The Malthouse Compromise sounds like a minor Robert Ludlum novel

David Henig @davidheniguk
Those waking up to the exciting news that Conservative Party MPs have agreed among themselves on a Brexit deal are going to be awfully disappointed to learn that said plan is almost certainly a non-starter with the EU and has been widely debunked

One of the sources for the apparent Malthouse compromise is the document 'A Better Deal' which was the latest in a long line of documents from right wing thinktanks to pretend that you can have manage a border entirely with technology. Why have others not done so then?

The idea of an immediate Free Trade Agreement is a joke - yes of course any trade expert can knock up a permanent agreement in a lunchtime, so why do you think FTAs take 3-6 years to agree? Because there are hugely complex issues which will have a long term economic impact

A list of trade professionals prepared to put ideology before credibility. Too early to canvass but I know of not a single one of the fully neutral @UKTradeForum experts who is likely to endorse this plan - when any of us do, you're probably in business

The idea of an interim Article 24 WTO agreement pending a comprehensive agreement is described here by @CoppetainPU - in an interim agreement pending a full agreement all WTO members could demand changes...
uktradeforum.net/2019/01/26/why-claims-about-a-wto-article-24-interim-agreement-are-a-red-herring/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Why claims about a ‘WTO Article 24’ interim agreement are a red herring

Obviously the overall effect of this plan is to scrap the backstop. Which as the EU and Ireland have said repeatedly is not on offer. I am very surprised that so many Conservative MPs have apparently ignored this obvious flaw

Should MPs and media want a detailed briefing on why this plan doesn't work, and an exploration of the options for the future, neutral trade experts from @UKTradeForum and many other institutions such as doubtless Susses University stand ready to help

Harry Cole@mrharrycole
Fox on malthouse: “govt is open to all new ideas.” But points out it’s not on order paper today... tho Brady amendment suitably vague for an hardliners climb down? If called...

Norman Smith @bbcnormans
Understand PM will tell MPs today that she will seek legally binding changes to the backstop - likely to involve re-opening the Withdrawal Agreement.

Unilaterally reopen negotiations?

BTW yesterday May had categorically ruled out opening the WA...

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
The darkly funny thing about the Malthouse Compromise is that they've tried to dignify it already with a name...like The Balfour Declaration, like it's a thing already. Gah.

I'm getting more and more frightened at the lengths May will go to to keep the Tories together, and the lengths the ERG will go to to get their way. Do none of them care about people?

It's terrifying.

May has already corrected the Art24 thing in PMQs I’m sure.

more and more frightened at the lengths May will go to to keep the Tories together

because if they split they will be unelectable for years, there will be three main parties which means that Labour will 'triumph'.

From my POV, this would be a good thing. From hers, not so much.

"PM will tell MPs today that she will seek legally binding changes to the backstop "

I'm hoping May just means she'll phone, or even fly to Brussels and try a another little dance,
but knows the EU will say NO

So a meaningless promise to her MPs, like she makes to everyone else

Do none of them care about people?

Only certain people, not most people and certainly not poor or disabled people.

Honestly, what a load of bollocks to wake up to. And Nicky Morgan was one of a handful of Tories I had time for.

Utterly depressed.

I take it the new immigration bill passed yesterday?

Passed by 60 odd votes due to 70 odd labour abstentions.

I am so angry with labour I don't even think I could vote for David Lammy any more.

i'm surprised and dismayed that any "Remainy" Tories were so easily fooled
Although their performance to date has not been well organised or effective

I hope those claiming Malthouse Shithouse has supports from both sides of the Tory divide are lying
and that Nicky Morgan is the only naive fool who can't read properly before signing a document designed to wreck the GFA.

Soubry, Wollaston & co need to poke her in the ribs and tell her to take back her signature.

However, Morgan woud be a very unusual politician if she admits she was fooled into screwing up.

What's so bad about the immigration bill? The way I (briefly) read it Europeans will need visas - what's the problem with that if we are outside the EU?

A GE on the other hand...
...has got to see Labour getting off the fence on Brexit, or we will get the same "80% voted for parties who supported Brexit" nonsense.
I am quite sure that many who voted for Labour voted to protect the NHS and more money for schools as a starter.

Corbyn only put on a ONE-LINE whip and only then after being shamed into doing anything

Bastard is pandering to the nationalist xenophobes - he'll do anything to get into power*

Corbyn is the other cheek on the EDL arse*

Liam Fox on BBC Breakfast is saying with absolute certainty that, "Of course companies could get in supplies from other countries because they'd have warning of No Deal"

What time frames does he think supermarkets (and other companies) usually work to?

Certainly more than the 59 days (and reducing.....) before Brexit Day and a potential deliberate accidental No Deal

For a bit of 'laugh or you'll cry' relief: John Crace's take on Tigger Hancock:

www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2019/jan/28/mps-poo-poo-tigger-hancocks-plans-for-the-nhs-after-brexit

“Medicines will be prioritised over food,” he said firmly. He was committed to requisitioning lorries to make sure the country died of starvation rather than through illness. All foodstuffs would be left to rot in France so that pharmacies would be able to dispense valium prescriptions to everyone stressed about not being able to get enough to eat.

😂😂😭

Sainsbury’s shopping just been delivered. Woman delivering it apologises that the fresh pesto is missing (I know, you couldn’t get a more First World problem ). Says, ‘Blame Brexit’, then goes on to say:

‘We’ve got a right day it today it haven’t we? Boris and Rees-Mogg moving in for the kill.’

My cousin has offered to be my EU address for my .eu domain which I'm keeping out of bloodymindedness ...

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/01/28/dot_eu_brexit/

An already iffy plan to deal with .eu domain ownership when the UK crashes out of the European Union has taken a turn for the worst.

Brussels' bureaucrats have now imposed a strict two-month cancellation period for any .eu domain registered to a UK address, even if the owner is a European citizen, and refused to add an appeals process. As a result, three-quarters of a million people will have to ensure their .eu domain is linked to a physical address inside the European Union, or perhaps sue, if they don't want to lose their internet address

(contd)