Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8300916/commons-brexit-vote-theresa-may-drama/
PM battles with Tory Brexiteers over Irish backstop amendment as her deal hangs by a thread ahead of Commons Brexit vote

Theresa May had an electric confrontation with Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson after summoning all of her MPs and urging them to back Sir Graham Brady’s amendment

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Can the PM still get a majority and keep her deal alive? Tory whips say ERG rebels down to “about 20 diehards", ERG say closer to 40. Both would make it very hard, as still only a handful of Labour MPs willing to help.

On top of the ERG’s refuseniks, there could also be as many as 10 or so Tory Remainers rebelling. Reality is PM needs every single tiny thing to go her way tomorrow to stand a small chance.

and welcome, @lonesomeBiscuit

Any German speakers here? Bigchoc?

Daserte

Pretty I think Carole is on the food shortages thread

at Biscuit

The UK produces just 40% of its food in March/April. The lowest percentage of the entire year. It much higher in other months, I believe the highest month is 70%.

We couldn't manage anywhere near self-sufficiency even in WW2, with a land army helping grow things

Farming yields have improved since, but the population now is 65 million, not 40 million
(and people are used to consumer choice - only a small % are used to missing meals because there is no food)

I think Carole is on the food shortages thread

Yep, I think so. Has a right downer on crappy imported veg, and is a keen supporter of locally grown market produce.

I think the disparity in stats may be because of UK food exports:

Theoretically the UK could stop all these
However, exported fish is the kind we don't eat, ditto most cuts of meat, offal etc

I suspect there would be riots if what is left on shelves is what people don't like and are not used to

www.gov.uk/government/publications/food-statistics-pocketbook-2017/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-2017-global-and-uk-supply

Not only that BigChoc, many lack the skills to use home grown ingredients only.

I've got to be honest, I could do it, but I'd find it hard. Particularly if dairy products were in particular short surprise which would be the case.

surely Brexit is bigger than anything else

Going back a bit. I am not voting for a party which supports child rapists. I am not voting for a party that supports such people's rights to call themselves women and invade women's spaces. I will not vote for a party that supports ostracising women who complain about it. Under any circumstances.

There are bigger things than Brexit. A country which views it's womenfolk as livestock for men to use as they will is not one that's of any worth to me and my dd whether it's in the EU, or not, or on the moon.

Do post when you want to share anything, lonesomebiscuits
Eclectic threads are the best

Please excuse the misuse of apostrophes!

Amen to that dangermouse

On top of the ERG’s refuseniks, there could also be as many as 10 or so Tory Remainers rebelling. Reality is PM needs every single tiny thing to go her way tomorrow to stand a small chance

Heidi Allen said she's voting for Cooper Boles. Hopefully Anna Soubry and the others will do the same.

www.heidisouthcambs.co.uk/28th-january-2019-brexit-update-heidi-allen-mp

I think I've upset "Carole" - oops

There is ntbo a major difference in import source countries between fresh produce and heavily processed & packaged food

UK fresh produce imports: 55% from the E27

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
NEW: Here is the new Nicky Morgan plan endorsed by Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker as well as Tory Remainers including Stephen Hammond and Robert Buckland. New backstop plus extension of transition period, or a no-deal ‘triple safety net’

Just posted this without first reading... so nothing further to comment on it until I do!

elements 😂
You naughty person, bringing in facts to the FACTPHOBIC

Maybe the 2 pretty pictures I posted of food origins would be easier for her to understand

Isn't that just agreeing to the WA??? As in the content of it.

So we are into a face saving exercise? Where no one has to back down, and can claim they won?

Or am I going completely bloody mad.

BigChoc please go and post that diagram on the food shortages thread

Under all the verbiage, none of the 3 plans gives a backstop which is not time-limited or conditional.

The EU won't go for this, imo

elements I'm off to shower before bed and don't want my BP raised !
Feel free to copy both images

red I see we read that cunning plan and understoof completely different things from it !
I probably do need my bed

No it might be me tbh. I'm reading at speed.

Is it at least the first admission that no deal might not be so great from the ERG though?

It says 'backstop which would be acceptable indefinitely'.

So I don't know. Maybe I read it incorrectly.