Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

...but for whom?

don't want to think about that

No, I don't think the Tory party is organised enough to do anything whatsoever

It's just running round in circles, panicking & farting

Changing the leader wouldn't change the HoC votes.

Thanks for the explanation, I need to think about that a bit more but basically it sounds as if we can fall into the WTO but it will be a free for all with the ‘others’ having a strong hand over the UK?

But we'll have sovereignty and nasty unelected people from other countries won't be able to tell us what to do....oh wait..

Excuse me while I just roll around on the floor laughing hysterically for the next 60 days.

iirc if was DG who asked:

Yes, one of the LDem MPs votes the Leave ticket, because his consituents did in the ref
and he'll do anything to hang onto his seat and perks

The other 10 LDems are Remain

Sabine Weyand (Barnier's deputy) must have been reading what our MPs have been saying
She stated in Brussels that

a lot of the discussion of the withdrawal agreement in the UK was "uninhibited by any knowledge" of what it actually contained." 😂😂

"Labour will impose a three-line whip for Cooper/Boles, and against Brady"

Bigchoc you’ve provided a much-needed glimmer of hope before bed...

Just started watching Inside Europe on BBC2.

Nicolas Sarkozy describes how he told Cameron:

‘If you want any influence in Europe you must work from within not from outside.’

Goes on to say:

‘This is always the problem with the English. They think that alone they have more influence than by working with Europe. They are wrong’

The issue pretty summed up by minute four of the programme.

I hate to depress you again before bed then ...
Cameron, you arrogant incompetent TWAT, look what you have done 😡🤯

'Brexit: EU spy chiefs brand UK 'unstable' and warn of violence including rioting*

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-eu-spy-chiefs-brand-13915848

Senior EU intelligence officials fear there could be violence on the streets of Britain
which, they claim, will be “unstable” for ­decadesdue to Brexitit_*

In a secret report, EU officials are believed to have warned that civil unrest and rioting is almost inevitable,
regardless of the out­­­come of the current political deadlock.

The analysis has been prepared for top EU officials and will be available to EU com­­mittees and the British government.

It predicts independence referendums in Scotland and Northern Ireland within 18 months of Brexit.

An EU source said: “Analysis of the threat levels in Britain is being shared at the top of the EU as we formulate policy for the years ahead.
The assessment is that violence is almost inevitable no matter what.

"They are worried that if the current deal goes through the right-wing will kick off.
If there’s no deal everybody will object and kick off.
If there’s a second referendum, the right will kick off.
The right kicking off is causing most concern.”

“This analysis is being kept very quiet for ob­­­­vious reasons.”

The report, based on information from the intelligence services in member states, assessed Britain as “unstable” and likely to remain so for years.
British security sources said MI5 was not involved in the analysis.

PARLY @ParlyApp
If proxy voting is approved it will come into operation tomorrow says @andrealeadsom

In a secret report, EU officials are believed to have warned that civil unrest and rioting is almost inevitable regardless of the out­­­come of the current political deadlock.*

I can believe this. Because it isn’t actually about Brexit at all anymore (and never really was).

Newspapers:

Look whats front page of the Indy and Metro.
I guess the panic starts now...

@easypoliticsUK
UPDATE: The controversial #ImmigrationBill passes its 2nd reading and goes onto committee stage

297 to 234.

Times say it doesn't look good for plan b

Labour's late U-turn on the immigration bill is meaningless 😡

It's only a bloody ONE-line whip
FUCKING Corbyn and his dog whistle nationalism

ONE-line just tells MPs who bother to vote that they should vote against the bill – but does NOT require them to turn up and vote.

The Guardian frames it as Tory splits. As does the FT.

Whilst Eurosceptics are just revolting in the Telegraph.

In a secret report, EU officials are believed to have warned that *civil unrest and rioting is almost inevitable regardless of the out­­­come of the current political deadlock.

Its what I thought would be the case from the moment of the vote. Simply because people were sold such a dude that if they didn't get it, they'd be trouble and if they did get it, they'd be trouble.

Not a revelation. Unfortuntely.

Its more a question of how bad is it gonna get.

(PS people are more likely to riot in the summer, than winter just cos of the weather).

Although the E27 provide "only" 30% of our food, that includes 70-80% of our fresh veg & fruit

Do we trust this govt to ration fairly / ration at all - well, there is nowhere near enough time to organise rationing even if they wanted
So Brexiters cn't enjoy a rerun of their (mythically wonderful) WW2 rationing.

Rationing will be on price & on consumer mobility
... and the most mobile will just emigrate / live abroad for a while

So the poorest & the lone disabled will be missing out on the healthiest foods.

And May gives Boris he can't refuse... oh wait no... he'll try and run as far as he possibly can from being tarnished with an inch of responsibility

And the Mirror is pretty damn blunt.

Yep we've crossed from 'forward purchasing' into the next stage. The one just before we get to panic buying.

It's very alarming, because that's professional intelligence service opinion, not just ours as lay persons

• we don't have their expertise or the resources, so we could write off our opinions as nerves / frustration / untypical social contacts etc

However, this is the experts warning their govts and ours that they expect violence, especially far right violence, to happen

Just listening to Carol Malone on Sky's Press Review She is gob smacking in her ignorance.

A few gems from her....

• Why was the letter sent today? That must have been politically motivated.
• Who is going to stop the lorries arriving into the UK?
• Why aren't we growing the veg ourselves?
• The weather in France is not much better than in the UK
• We grow 70% of our own food
• We'll only be missing out on a few fresh veg which we could grow ourselves
• If only we'd been more organised, we could have arranged to grow everything ourselves. We shouldn't need to import anything.

Aaaaaaaaarrrrrreeggggghhhhhhh!!!!!!!

Somehow I believe "No Deal, no meal"
< and a riot for pud >

more than

"We can do it together"
(with Boris & May in separate photos or there'd be blood there too)

Carol should head over to the food shortage thread, she'd fit in beautifully.

The UK produces 50% of its own food, not 70%
Yes, the EU provides 30%
but the RoW provides 20% and if the ports are logjammed .....

Very long time lurker here. Just wanted to say pop by and say thanks for these threads, you lot are complete and utter heroes (as well as being scarily prescient...which is rather worrying...)

I have read these threads daily for months now - every single word save some of the super fast moving threads. It has become an obsession.

You've also motivated me to write to my MP three times in the last 6 months (never before) including tonight. It is scary emotional times.

I thought this article in the Guardian summed up the "trauma" aspect of Brexit rather well - apologies if it has been posted already Guardian brexit like divorce

I'm not going to post any more, simply say that you are doing a huge public good so please carry on. Some of your posts are all that maintains my faith in society!