Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

@SingingBabooshkaBadly - I'll give another head for them to aim for over the parapet and agree wholeheartedly with you on the LibDems. It's forgotten that at the time of the 2010 GE there was a global financial crisis going on, people thought a whole country was going to default (Greece), and sober heads (eg at BoE) were extremely concerned about the time it was taking to form a government.

I think the LibDems did the right thing to bring some stability by joining the government. (Sure, I don't doubt they were also keen to get some power for themselves). As the junior partner, obviously they weren't going to get all their policies through. Tuition fees was a big blunder (to both promise and then ditch the promise), but they've been punished for that (Nick Clegg personally in 2015 GE).

If there were a GE now, I'd probably vote LD just to signal against all that "80% of voters in 2017 voted for parties supporting Brexit" bullshit.

Yes @prettybird and more embarrassingly that the backstop is broadly the UKs design.

@red: If a good chunk of the ERG actually do vote against the Brady amendment (to reinvent the backstop), it'll fail won't it ?

Rentoul had the Cooper amendment (to remove No Deal) to win by 3 votes.
In practice, that's neck & neck

What about the rumours that Corbyn will decide not to back it / whip for it at the last moment ?
Would he be so irresponsible ?
Yes, but in this case his policy - in public anyway - is aginst No Deal, so it would be silly
But he is frequently very silly^

those are the 2 important amendments.
If both fail, then ....
Oh Gawd / Mon Dieu / Lieber Gott - what next ?

May would have to produce her new plan by mid-Feb to pacify those ministers who want to avoid No Deal
Surely not a GE
that just leaves .... her WA again
now that she has shown the HoC they can't agree on anything else either

It'll still fail though
Then what ?

Surely Leavers can't claim they knew that 60 days before Brexit, a Cabinet Minister would announ^ce:

"The Government Would Prioritise Medicines Over Food In No-Deal Brexit^"

and that the HoC & Govt still couldn't agree on what they want

The DUP being statesman-like as ever ....

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak

Not sure this sounds like a party about to come on board with a compromise
........
Sammy Wilson MP@eastantrimmp

STATEMENT: It’s time to exploit chaos and press for a better deal.

< whatever happens with Brexit, I wish voters would remember and destroy the bloody DUP at the next GE >

I know that there is a lot on but I have a question.

My understanding is that WTO members have rejected/questioned UK proposal to WTO. I’ve assumed this means that the org had stopped the UK from automatically falling onto it.

Is my understanding correct? And if so, why is more not made of this as it means WTO is not an option?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-wto-liam-fox-no-deal-international-trade-a8603811.html%3famp

Irish media have produced most of the best Brexit analysis:

Ireland’s media is a vital counter to London-based Brexit bampottery

www.thenational.scot/news/17386843.irelands-media-is-a-vital-counter-to-london-based-brexit-bampottery/?

As I understand it: WTO is an option. The fact our schedules aren’t agreed doesn’t mean we can’t trade. It does mean other countries may set sanctions against us in response.

We CAN go to WTO straight away even if it's questioned. It's just that we are more likely to get disputes because our status isn't settled. Which isn't a very good thing, if we have no other deals, cos everyone will simply abuse the system and try to screw us. And we won't get another resolved for 18months at the WTO court either.

In practice, that's neck & neck
An OMG does the Speaker have the casting vote moment.

In a sadist way, with everything being so close and the government being so belligerent to Bercow, I'm kinda interested in the spectacle that the Speaker having to vote would cause.

At this point, I'm not sure how it could be more crazy anyway apart from that.

My Irish Reading has arrived ☘️

It's bloody typical that I've got a meeting tomorrow evening again.

LASH As posted before, the UK can probably still attempt to use its own proposed schedules & quotas until new ones are negotiated with the objecting countries
Other countries have done this in the past

3 main problems:

1. WTO terms alone would be dreadful for the UK trade & economy.
   Contrary to Brexiter lies, we trade with almost all countries via EU trade deals and arrangements,
   either the 40 FTAs or the 700-800 other trade arrangements & agreements

2. Any of the objecting countries might choose to apply punitive tariffs or add NTBs (Non-Trade Barriers)
   if they feel sufficiently annoyed / tough guys

3. Even WTO rules would require the UK to pass hundreds of new laws before Brexit day
   and there is nowhere near time in the ordinary HoC process
   Possibly May could use the Henry VIII powers to pass them in huge batches without debate or votes, as it would be an emergency.

Robert Peston @peston
The Brexiters in and around the ERG tell me they could vote for the PM’s Brexit deal if she herself tomorrow tables an amendment similar but more tightly worded than Brady’s and pledging to ask the EU to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement and dump the backstop

May has been adament she would not do this. I suspect the danger is if she refuses, she proves the ERGs fears about her intent with the Brady amendment.

Thus exactly why she's been asked to do this...

I'm at my weekly upholstery course but might look for a way to tune in to LBC or similar and ignore the other lovely people like a politics misery

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
If Brady (as ERG understood it) was a hospital pass, this is just the straight revolver.

Brexit is in 60 days.

This is starting to feel like Mission Impossible: Brexit. Actually I wish it was, because if avoiding No Deal depended on Tom Cruise's ability to hang from helicopters/defuse nuclear bombs/hack into the Kremlin, I'd be feeling a lot more confident.

I voted Lib Dem for years but they never get more than about 2% of the vote in my constituency, so last time I voted Labour tactically and did have the satisfaction of seeing the sitting Brexiteer Tory's majority of several thousand reduced to under 500. So there's a real chance of getting them out at the next election, but what's the point when Labour are just as pro hard Brexit as the Tories?

whatever happens with Brexit, I wish voters would remember and destroy the bloody DUP at the next GE

You speak from my heart BCF.

Did someone say a certain number of medicine supplies would be guaranteed?
I bet there’s lots more than that in here:
bnf.nice.org.uk/drug/

Oops posted on wrong thread

Thanks for the explanation, I need to think about that a bit more but basically it sounds as if we can fall into the WTO but it will be a free for all with the ‘others’ having a strong hand over the UK?

I think I ask this every hour but how the fuck did we (UK) get here 😢

Yes, we can fall incompetently and without adequate planning into something totally inadequate for our economy
That's WTO

I do love the word "bampot"

It's the perfect word to describe the English and N.Irish politicians

Now Cooper amendment (against No Deal) has a real chance !

John Rentoul@JohnRentoul

"Labour will impose a three-line whip for Cooper/Boles, and against Brady"

Some Brexiters are despairing of this clusterfuck logjam too

Tom Harris (Torygraph) compares them (sexist) to useless blokes who promise to do chores around the house and infuriate their female partners by being so incompetent at it:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/28/uselessness-mps-best-argument-yet-seen-staying-eu/amp/?

It’s something that drives women insane, and you can see why.
“Male incompetence” or perhaps more accurately, “deliberate male incompetence”, is probably the least attractive quality in a husband or boyfriend
< DG & LeClerc may want to avert eyes from this traitor to their sex >
....
'It’s not the greatest argument for remaining as full members of the EU, I’ll admit:

“We’re too incompetent to govern ourselves so we need someone else to do lots of it for us.”

But it’s become a lot more persuasive.'

Is this the Conservative Party dumping May?