Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
U-turn. After anger at PLP over initial decision to abstain on immigration bill.
Lab MPs just sent this whips' text:
"IMPORTANT: Those colleagues who remain on the estate may wish to be aware that we will be voting AGAINST the 2nd Reading of Immig Bill"

So they didn't send the text until many Labour MPs had left parliament and haven't insisted they get their arses back to the HoC to vote.

Utterly shameful.

'you wont know unless you vote for it'

Yep, that pretty much sums up the leave vote too.

The ERG seem convinced that in the face of no deal the EU will blink at the last minute as apparently this is what they do. They want to take it to the wire regardless of the consequences. I’m not convinced that the EU will blink this time.

What sort of things has the EU blinked on at the last minute before?

Faisal Islam @faisalislam
Labour confusion today on Immigration Bill - MPs had been put on 1 line whip to abstain - but now in past hour will be whipped to oppose second reading tonight.

Labour and the 1 line whip to support EU citzens.

@bellinisurge Slightly off topic, but have you seen that the BBC have started a new podcast on prepping?

Called 'Preppers' funnily enough, episode one has just come out on BBC Sounds app which I hate, why couldn't they just stick to putting podcasts on iTunes like everyone else

The EU has negotiated compromises at the very last moment between its own members
It has never blinked and backed down to a non-member

That's the really important difference that politicians who vaguely remember last minute EU deals haven't realised.

PARLY @ParlyApp
Here is the motion calling on government to rule out no deal and provide “sufficient time is provided for this House to ensure the timely passage of legislation necessary to implement any deal or proposition that has commanded the support of the majority of the House of Commons”

Big turnout of peers for the Brexit vote. It’s not binding on government but let’s them know what the Lords think. Result in around 15 minutes

Am a thread lurker, but keep losing track, today I feel afraid. Especially after listening to head of MI5 this morning. I am so so disappointed in our politicians. It’s like Alice in wonderland and they are nothing but a pack of cards.
We are doomed.

As I expected BCF - no last minute agreeing to things that would compromise their union.

It’s all timewasting though really. They know the EU won’t blink.

Thank you @umpteennamechanges , I hadn't. Let's hope it's something more interesting than the usual redneck baiting nonsense.

Why May called the 2017 GE:

1. Main reason:She expected to gain a big majority

• she wanted the prestige / clout of winning her own, bigger than Cameron's,to give her the moral authority to do Brexit her way.

She never expected Labour to gain about 24% in the polls since she announced the GE

• mostly due to her abysmal campaigning and letting her SPADs write a deadly manifesto

2. Minor reason: timing for the following GE

She expected the A50 negotiations to go much more smoothly - she never imagined having Arlene as the backseat driver from hell -
and that she's easily get a 2-year transition until April 2021 during which she expected the country would continue much as it did before the ref.

Hence, she'd stand down in triumph having delivered Brexit and the Tories would win a GE in about May 2021

order-order.com/2019/01/28/saj-scraps-tens-thousands-migration-target/
The Home Secretary for the first time officially said this afternoon that there will be “no targets” for future migration numbers, but that the Government remains committed to bringing migration down to “sustainable levels.”

@RedToothBrush that'll please the Leavers

I need to get a stock of straws, so I have something to clutch at.

Gavan Reilly @gavreilly
#Brexit thread:

So. Tomorrow the House of Commons will vote on a series of possible amendments to Theresa May's 'Plan B' - or rather the 'plan of action to achieve a Plan B' - which itself officially reads as follows:

The amendment most likely to pass – and therefore the one on which most attention has been paid – is this one from Conservative party chairman Sir Graham Brady. It's effectively an instruction to go back and seek some unstated other way to avoid a hard border in Ireland

Tonight, Theresa May has asked her backbenchers to vote in favour of this amendment. She is basically asking them to tie her hands, so that Brussels will clearly know what it would take to win the Commons' backing for any deal.

This is largely seen as an attempt by May to placate the Eurosceptic backbench ERG group, which has emerged as an influential pro-Brexit caucus, without whose support the Conservative party won't back anything at all. But…

Brady's amendment has only won the favour of No.10 by somehow surmising that the Withdrawal Agreement (i.e. the Brexit deal itself) need not be amended in order for the backstop to be acceptably rejigged. Here's what he said on BBC Radio 4 last night:

But because Brady's amendment only implicitly requires the Brexit deal to be renegotiated, and doesn't itself outline what an alternative backstop would be, the ERG will defy Tory HQ and vote against it

So: - May wants a clear mandate from the Commons to try and renegotiate the Brexit deal
- Brady offers a craftily fudged amendment which might do so
- May instructs her MPs to back Brady's amendment
- The people she's trying to convince reject it, saying it's not pragmatic enough

Given this backbench rebellion, there remains a prospect that ALL of the two-dozen amendments before the Commons tomorrow will be rejected

Meaning: After ceding control of the Plan B process to parliament, MPs could tomorrow reject every proposal on the table and send Theresa May back to Brussels with no clear instruction at all.

Brexit is in 60 days.

Been out all day and have had to skim to catch up.

So, there was a post about rumours of a GE being called tomorrow but now it seems the only rumour about the GE was the post about the rumour of a GE

Regardless, I just want to say I’m with Elements on this:

As for who to vote for: I think self-ID is fucking bollocks (sometimes literally), but as all the main parties are apparently singing from the same hymn sheet, I'm not going to vote based on it. Brexit is my priority issue and, as long as Labour party policy remains the incoherent fence-sitting dog's dinner that it has been, my vote will be going to the LibDems.

I’ve said this before but, if a GE is called, surely Brexit is bigger than anything else, including whatever disappointment/anger people understandably feel about tuition fees. I’m sticking my head over the parapet to say I think the Libdems don’t get enough credit for the good they did in coalition. They blocked numerous far right policies the Tories wanted to pass, including scrapping the Human Rights Act (something iirc they are still planning on doing after Brexit). Yes tutition fees are shit. But if the LibDems hadn’t been in coalition the Tories would have forced a lot more shit on us and students would be paying tutition fees anyway.

As, I think it was DG, said, we need to deal with one thing at a time. If we get the opportunity that thing has to be Brexit. We get the opportunity to vote on everything else every few years.

Aviv Ovadya @metaviv
This is huge.
@Facebook has finally put out some more details on their thinking about a "Facebook Supreme Court". They started this process in admirable way—with many open questions, a public consultation process, and an exploration of considerations.

And we are worried about the ECJ????!

MPs could tomorrow reject every proposal on the table and send Theresa May back to Brussels with no clear instruction at all.

Actually crying laughing at this.

Err, what on Earth is Facebook court?!

Save us SNP! SAAAAAaaaaVvvVveee US!

Well at least the 3rd largest party in the HoC has a plan that is actually feasible & legal,
i.e. the UK can do it unilaterally and the EU would be happy anyway

Facebook Supreme Court?!

W
T
F

Christ on a motherfucking bike.

Fuck off, Zuckerberg.

Can't be bothered reading back on this thread to check, but didn't the EU (Sabine W?) say yet again today that the EU had asked the UK to come up with the techniques to avoid a hard border, and the UK was unable to do so (and I quote) because. They. Don't. Exist.

So. What. The. Fuck. Do. The. MPs. Think. They. Are. Going. To. Achieve?

beyond wasting more time and then being able to pretend it is the nasty EU's fault

Aaaaaaarrgghhhhhhh

Laura Hughes @laurakHughes
DUP will make a decision on Brady amendment tomorrow...