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Brexit

Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 27/01/2019 09:52

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

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DGRossetti · 28/01/2019 18:11

Alex Wickham @alexwickham Everyone turning on each other

Ah, when thieves fall out Grin

DGRossetti · 28/01/2019 18:12

So the ERG defying the whip could be the start of a new party ? Finally.

RedToothBrush · 28/01/2019 18:15

Steven Swinford @Steven_Swinford
Tory Eurosceptics in ERG Whatsapp group are genuinely divided in the wake of the meeting with MPs

Some are angry with PM’s positioning, others think ERG has no choice but to back the Brady amendment now

Meeting of ERG likely tomorrow to confirm position

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RedToothBrush · 28/01/2019 18:15

James Plumb @JamesRPlumb
Theresa May has urged Tory MPs to support the amendment being proposed by senior backbencher Sir Graham Brady. ERG will not support it as it does not involve reopening the Withdrawal Agreement.

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Loletta · 28/01/2019 18:16

But why?? Why whip MPs to vote for Brady??

Somerville · 28/01/2019 18:19

My assumption on the 2017 election was that she knew we were likely to end up in an almost 2 yr transition period and therefore wanted to ensure she didn’t have a pesky election to contend with until she’d taken the country through that and into the future relationship. (I don’t think it dawned on her until much more recently that the future relationship/actual deal will take far longer than 2 years to conclude.)

AutumnCrow · 28/01/2019 18:20

Whose goal has it always been to get rid of the ERG from the Tory ranks..?

Takes us back to pre-Cameron.

LonelyandTiredandLow · 28/01/2019 18:21

But if the party splits along those lines, TM's group of tories are still too far right for many people to vote for Hmm

Labour's turn next

Somerville · 28/01/2019 18:25

But why?? Why whip MPs to vote for Brady??

She wants to get the Tory party to some kind of
consensus more than she wants to make an actual deal with the EU.
My guess is that either she thinks she can get the EU to move slightly in her favour wrt to the backstop (she can’t be stupid enough to believe they’ll ditch it entirely, surely?) or she is play acting to waste time and get closer to an “accidental” no deal. If it’s the former, she thinks at the last minute, with a bit more movement in backstop, she can wrestle her WA through because HoP is so scared of no deal. If it’s the latter she wants no deal but to blame EU/HoP/everyone but her own party for us ending up there.

nicoala1 · 28/01/2019 18:31

I may be missing something, but how can an amendment like this, even if passed, be accepted by EU? No one knows what the so called “alternative methods” are!

Anyway woul be fun if this amendment is NOT selected....

umpteennamechanges · 28/01/2019 18:34

My prediction is...it will be selected but won't pass unless the ERG have a turnaround tomorrow and agree to back it.

Cooper-Boles won't pass if Labour don't whip.

So we'll be no further forward Hmm

phpolly · 28/01/2019 18:35

@Somerville is spot on I think

RedToothBrush · 28/01/2019 18:41

Chris Leslie @ChrisLeslieMP
Staggering that Labour frontbench appear to have stopped opposing today’s Immigration Bill, which ends free movement and hands Ministers total control on migration policy.

^I will be voting to oppose it tonight, even if Labour’s leadership won’t.
#ImmigrationBill^

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RedToothBrush · 28/01/2019 18:44

Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
PM has agreed Govt will whip for Brady amendment, MP confirms as he leaves meeting.
Baron and Murrison have agreed to pull their amendments to narrow it to Brady.

So Bercow can't choose their amendments instead of Brady's and repeat last time.

I can not conceive of Bercow not settling the amendment if it is endorsed by government. He just wouldn't.

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RedToothBrush · 28/01/2019 18:45

Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
Lots of people who hailed the last Labour manifesto as the best ever now seem amazed it contained a pledge to end free movement.

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RedToothBrush · 28/01/2019 18:46

Jon Worth @jonworth
The Murrison one was actually a better bet - because at least it was clear.

Brady is 🎂 layered with 🦄. So, yeah, of course that was the one that one out.

HOW THE HELL do you actually DO the Brady amendment?

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RedToothBrush · 28/01/2019 18:50

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
The crucial, difficult question for every Brexit commentator is now this...

...should you try and keep track of who is voting for this amendment or that, or should you just watch panda videos on YouTube until there are actual voting figures?

There is only one sensible answer.

Guess which he choose. Its not cats but:
twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1089885321515417601

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RedToothBrush · 28/01/2019 18:54

iain watson @iainjwatson
Boris Johnson asked how the Brady amendment would specifically change the #backstop - we are told the PM said 'you wont know unless you vote for it'

Christopher Hope @christopherhope
NEW Sources say Prime Minister Theresa May told the meeting of Tory MPs that the motion for the Meaningful Vote will be laid on Feb 13th. There will then be two days of debate and vote could be on evening of Feb 14th.

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umpteennamechanges · 28/01/2019 18:55

I can't open that link but 🐼 must have won!

umpteennamechanges · 28/01/2019 18:57

Boris Johnson asked how the Brady amendment would specifically change the #backstop - we are told the PM said 'you wont know unless you vote for it'

^This actually made me laugh out loud. They're actually trolling each other now.

1tisILeClerc · 28/01/2019 19:04

Don't you feel proud and honoured that any of the government or opposition will be handling important and far reaching trade negotiations from now on?

borntobequiet · 28/01/2019 19:20

I pretty much hate the lot of them, but Corbyn I hate the worst. He’s the most deceitful and underhand of the lot of them. Worse than JRM and all. He wants the whole country to crumble so he can achieve his Utopia. No way is that going to happen (Utopia, I mean).

RedToothBrush · 28/01/2019 19:30

Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor
This is the whips’ note that Labour MPs were sent at lunchtime, setting out why they should abstain on the Immigration Bill tonight. In the face of a looming backbench rebellion, the leadership has caved and Labour will now vote against. One MP describes it as “a f* up”.

The Labour Party are doing EXACTLY the same as the Tory Party today! Its uncanny.

Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law
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BiglyBadgers · 28/01/2019 19:32

'you wont know unless you vote for it'

😂😂 I think I'm actually a bit hysterical now.

The lucky dip of amendments.

RedToothBrush · 28/01/2019 19:33

HuffPost UK Politics @HuffPostUKPol
Government will prioritise medicines over food in case of no-deal Brexit, says Matt Hancock

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/matt-hancock-food-medicines-no-deal-brexit_uk_5c4f3c2ae4b0f43e41099a29?ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000008&ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000008&ncid=tweetlnkukhpmg00000008&ec_carp=403591194549389432
Matt Hancock: Government Would Prioritise Medicines Over Food In No-Deal Brexit
It comes after serious warning about food supply from supermarkets

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