Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

PV - People’s Vote

red's Soubry tweet: 🤦🏻‍♀️
Points out the
Disgraceful cowardice and political cynicism on human rights by Labour under Corbyn

This illustrates one of the main problems:
the batship psychopaths are gaining control of the Tory party
while Labour just sits it out.

Furrin are expendable, acceptable collateral damage to the great cause of getting Corby elected 😡

“The constitutional oracles of Dicey and Bagehot could not be clearer. The House of Commons is in absolute control of its own procedure; and that procedure, enshrined in standing orders, can be changed by a majority in the Commons.”

They should have asked me. I knew that from learning why Bernadette Devlin (who managed to land a punch on a Home Secretary ?) was excluded from the HoC, and why the courts were unable to challenge that. Basically the HoC is it's own jury.

I know it might come as a shock to the really thick Brexiteers (not that I give a shit about them) but this is what the "control" they blubbled on about actually looks like. This is the "control" we never lost.

The few Brexity threads I've snuck into appear to be much less exposed to Brexiteer Bot-ing. My theory is because they are now starting to actually discuss, and WE WON GET OVER IT simply doesn't cut the mustard anymore.

I did like the (up to 200+ posts) thread asking for the upsides ...

Nick Gutteridge @nick_gutteridge
All star Brexit cast @epc_eu in Brussels today including Commission deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand and former UK ambassador to the EU Ivan Rogers. Will post any good quotes/insights below.

Sabine Weyand: 'There’s no point beating about the bush - the Agreement was defeated with a 2/3 majority in the HoC. That’s a crushing defeat by any standards. It’s quite a challenge to see how you can construct out of the diversity of opposition a positive majority for a deal.'

Weyand: 'We need to have a majority that doesn’t just get Agreement over hurdle of a meaningful vote by a narrow majority but we need to a stable majority to ensure the ratification. That’s quite a big challenge. There’s no negotiation between the UK and EU - that's finished.'

Weyand: 'We’re not going to reopen the Agreement. The result of the negotiation has been very much shaped by the UK negotiators, much more than they actually get credit for. This is a bit like snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The backstop was very much shaped by UK.'

Weyand on amendments to unilaterally leave/time-limit backstop: 'It feels like Groundhog Day. None of this is new. This has been extensively discussed at the negotiating table amongst the EU27. EU27 were unanimous a time limit to the backstop defeats the purpose of the backstop.'

Weyand says 'our impression is discussion is much more about the future of the country & the future of the UK-EU relationship than about the content of the WA'. To laughs she adds: 'In fact much of the conversation is uninhibited by any knowledge of what is actually in the WA.'

Weyand wraps up opening remarks by warning: 'There’s a very high risk of a crash out not by design, but by accident. Perhaps by the design of Article 50, but not by policymakers.'

IFG's @jillongovt says May has 'managed to pull off the quite singular feat' of losing a Brexit Sec because backstop implies a permanent Customs Union, but also being denounced by Labour MPs for failing to provide a permanent Customs Union. Says she's in a 'lose-lose' position.

This is an ongoing meeting, so more to come, but wow look at burrrrrnnnn in there. And look Ivan!

Furrin are expendable, acceptable collateral damage to the great cause of getting Corby elected

The cynical appropriation of racial equality that was the hallmark of 1970s socialism never really went away, sadly.

Good list of abbreviations. A few more we sometimes use;

NI - Northern Ireland
ROI - Republic of Ireland
GFA - the Good Friday Agreement (AKA Belfast agreement) Which has been in place in NI for 20 years.
rUK - Rest of UK - often used to mean UK aside from NI, so as a synonym for Great Britain.
rEU - Rest of EU
EU27 - the EU without the UK

Tesco confirm its 9000 jobs not 15000 going. But with reduced hours for others.

I guess if there's no stock to put on the shelves you'd have to reduce staffing...

You've missed out FUKD - the Formerly United Kingdom and its Dependencies

From a Indy Scottish perspective, rUK = the UK minus Scotland, so it's important to know the context in which it is being used.

Although I think FUKD is more apposite in all contexts now

I used to do a lot of process design too...Six Sigma/Lean in the insurance industry mainly

I was local government. Trying to change services to make the savings demanded in the name of austerity. Working on children's services almost ended me things are so desperate, and I was in one of the better off ones. This is where my cynicism comes from. I spent years listening to government saying how much they cared while continuing to cut services to the bone and then blaming local government when they couldn't cope and things went wrong. I can no longer believe anything they say unless it is supported by actual action.

Tesco confirm its 9000 jobs not 15000 going

Phew, that's a relief then.

Thanks for the abbreviation additions @Somerville and @MissMalice

I've added them to my note that I can copy and paste towards the beginning of any new threads to save RTB a job as she(?) does so much already...

amp.theguardian.com/law/2019/jan/28/international-criminal-court-icc-judge-christoph-flugge-quits-citing-political-interference-trump-administration-turkey?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
International criminal court judge quits citing political interference
Christoph Flügge warns over ‘shocking’ moves by Trump administration and Turkey

{There’s no negotiation between the UK and EU - that's finished.'}
I love it when she talks dirty, but it's probably just me.

On a different note, anyone familiar with the tale of 'Albert and the lion' Probably a NE possibly NW tale'. It might be eligible for a 'Brexit upgrade' (in the way of Burns's pieces).

Just to add to the mood, and in reference to rubbish (should be a little more specific, seeing as everything about Brexit is rubbish) refuse collection.

Birmingham currently on a "temporary" fortnightly collection rota, as a result of industrial action. Not too much of a worry for chez Rossetti - we have far too much space for just the two of us. But across the city, there will be bags-a-pilin'

It's a bit like 70s bingo, isn't it ? Binmen strikes ?

Any news of gravediggers ? Teachers ? Unfortunately the Rover factory went years ago, so no chances of any strikes there.

Spokespersons for 20-40 ministers have reportedly told May to produce a Brexit plan by mid-Feb that avoids No Deal or they'll all resign.

I'll believe it when I see it, I'm afraid. As the great letters incident and the no confidence vote revealed there is often a lot of talk from members of the government and much of it turns out to be hot air. Spokespersons telling May things behind closed doors all seems a bit deniable to me and I'll be impressed and surprised if it did really turn into that number of resignations.

Even May would struggle to stay on after that unprecedented blow.
I've lost count of how many times I have heard this said about May. She a zombie. I'm not sure I'll be convinced she has gone until at least a month after she's finally out of number 10 and even then I'd like to check the cupboards to be sure.

I'm a she. Both biologically or otherwise.

Actually if someone could do an abbreviation thread in its own right that might be helpful.

I could do some abbreviations in the next thread, but something tells me it's going to disappear very quickly. A separate thread would be more useful and I can refer to it in future OPs.

bigly 😂

DGR in the midst of my Brexit planning, I thought plenty of bin bags a must. I'm pondering over what happens in no deal with regards to household waste. Would bin collection be disrupted? How much waste do we export? What if fuel is rationed? What if I can't get hold of bin bags for months? Or have bins raided and need extra bin bags? Bin bags are one of those things that is in my interest to share too.

RTB
I'm in Southampton
All of our recyclables go to the sorting centre in Alton and then are sold on
anything not recycled gets burned in the CHP incinerator in Marchwood.

I've been a recycler and composter for decades.
When we had an 11 week bin strike it only became a problem for me (family of 4) after about 8 weeks.

If the preppers (under the guidance of bellini ) start to
Reduce Reuse Recycle now
by early April they will be dab hands and disruption will wash past

Sammy Wilson MP @ eastantrimmp
📄STATEMENT: It’s time to exploit 🇪🇺 chaos and press for a better deal.

Errrrrr, should any responsible politician say this? What chaos is there in the EU?

They aren't the ones with businesses leaving, talk of martial law and supermarkets warning of no food.

We can't compose. No where to do it.

Fucker.

Not you @RedToothBrush , that Wilson twat.

PrettyBird i've not had a Wetherspoons News either despite having one in town - perhaps he is giving us Scots up as a lost cause?

Would you want a trade deal with dishonest and exploitative Sammy?