Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

@StoorieHoose , I'd give you mine but the cat inexplicably threw a hairball up on it.
I absolutely didn't grab it to put under her mid retch.

I created the Westministenders Abbreviations thread, which red can link to in her new OPs:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eureferendumm2016/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation

That wee fucker Sammy Wilson trying to speak on behalf of the border communities. And putting words into the mouths of all of his opponents.

Bellinisurge i'm sure the cat improved the level of knowledge held within the mag by adding that hairball

Brilliant BigChoc

I love the way you have concisely defined the couple of extra acronyms that were suggested and said "Don't ask" about PMK

@tisIleclerc

The Lion And Albert

yessss

I have suspected for a while now that we hail from the same parts so nice to have it confirmed in such a memorable way!

Said Mother 'Yon lion's et Albert" 

Another for the Brexit bookshelf. It's my party piece. Might keep spirits up in the bunker...

More from that Nick Gutteridge thread:

Nick Gutteridge @nick_gutteridge
IFG's @jillongovt says May has 'managed to pull off the quite singular feat' of losing a Brexit Sec because backstop implies a permanent Customs Union, but also being denounced by Labour MPs for failing to provide a permanent Customs Union. Says she's in a 'lose-lose' position.

IFG's @jillongovt says May has 'managed to pull off the quite singular feat' of losing a Brexit Sec because backstop implies a permanent Customs Union, but also being denounced by Labour MPs for failing to provide a permanent Customs Union. Says she's in a 'lose-lose' position.

Jill concludes: 'The final landing point if we get through the Withdrawal Agreement is still unclear. That’s why you’ll see more people in the UK saying this is too difficult, shall we go for a Citizens’ Assembly to try and tell the politicians what Leave means.'

Sir Ivan kicks off his remarks with a good dose of honesty. Says he doesn't know what will happen next and 'anyone who tells you they have the faintest clue what’s going to happen next in the Commons is usually lying'.

Sir Ivan says 'level of understanding' amongst even best briefed MPs of what's in deal is 'strikingly low'. Explains: 'There’s an enormous gap between what the executive understands, what the people at the core of the negotiations understand & what the legislature understands.'

Sir Ivan says there will be an 'inevitable technical extension' of Article 50. But points out if it's 3 months or less EU leaders will be worried they're just going to have to renew it and if it's longer UK must hold EU elections which is 'highly problematic'.

Sir Ivan adds May faces a 'credibility issue' with EU leaders having been 'thumped' in the meaningful vote. He adds that ideally capitals will want to see 'real, convincing evidence' that a deal can get through to green light such an extension.

Sir Ivan concludes: 'I’ve always thought the crisis would have to go to the wire and it will intensify right to the end game. But when leaders have to look over the abyss they'll have to weigh up what the alternatives are, whether we really want to jump together into the abyss.'

.@tconnellyRTE says Irish Govt has 'felt pressure like they’ve not felt before' since Commission outburst last week over no deal creating a hard border. He says: 'It forced them into confronting things that they haven’t really had to say before. There's a lot more pressure now.'

Connelly adds EU leaders get need to hold line on backstop but 'closer we get to no deal you could get pressure from bottom up' i.e industry groups/trade unions in EU states over 'arcane Irish situation we don’t really understand'. Says: 'That [unity] may not hold at grassroots.'

It continues...

I know the tale of 'Albert and the lion' 1tis Yes it's a a NE thing to my knowledge?

So, seeking for further amusement
They paid, and went into the zoo
Where they'd lions and tigers and camels
And cold ale and sandwiches, too
There were one great big lion called Wallace
Whose nose was all covered with scars...

I've read before of US threats against international court judges if they dared investigate the US,
instead of just its enemies 🤔^
^
red's link gave the grim detail
imo ^ the US under Trump is an outlaw state^, ruling by terror - ^and some Tory Brexiters aspire to this:
^
This is what the German judge said when he resigned from the ICC:^
^
John Bolton, the national security adviser to the US president, held a speech last September in which he wished death on the international criminal court,” he said.

“If these judges ever interfere in the domestic concerns of the US or investigate an American citizen,

he said the American government would do all it could to ensure that these judges would no longer be allowed to travel to the United States
– and that they would perhaps even be criminally prosecuted^
^
“The American security adviser held his speech at a time when The Hague was planning preliminary investigations into American soldiers who had been accused of torturing people in Afghanistan.

The American threats against international judges clearly show the new political climate.
It is shocking.
I had never heard such a threat.”
...
“It is consistent with the new American line: ‘We are No 1 and we stand above the law’,”

We had our actual refuse down to about 5Kg a week, because we recycle (or used to ) paper, cardboard, glass and plastics.

Thanks to the packaging industry, our recycling is probably closer to 15-20Kg. Usually collected fortnightly.

Since I've not had my annual reminder about paying for the Green Waste service (usually starts in late Feb) then I'm assuming that's fucked too. Which will be fun come spring ... when charges were introduced the city simply disappeared beneath a haze of grass clippings as Brummies found it easier to flytip than pay.

I find myself particularly irked by the constant reminders of the tip opening hours - the hint being I should put the refuse in my car and drive (and queue !!!!!!!) to do the councils fucking job for them.

Brueghel, Bosch, Blake ... and Brexit. Great images of their times.

Rumours of a GE being called tomorrow or thursday...........

I thought about ATD (Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive) as (what will surely become) a common abbreviation.

Just checked on the EU website (ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/company-tax/anti-tax-avoidance-package/anti-tax-avoidance-directive_en) and it says "Member States should apply these measures as from 1 January 2019"

I'd thought it was to apply from the beginning of April, hence ERG being so keen to get out on 28 March. I'm sure I must be missing something here?

Rumours of a GE being called tomorrow or Thursday...........

the "something" in "something must be done" ?

... he lay in a somnolent posture
With the side of his face on the bars
( that was for lonelyplanetmum)

Nick Gutteridge @nick_gutteridge
‼️Weyand: 'You cannot lead a negotiation like that in secrecy. We've seen on UK side the fact this was handled in a very small circle and there was no info about all the things that were tried in the negotiations is now a big handicap.' ‼️

Weyand on Max Fac: 'We looked at every border on this earth, every border EU has with a 3rd country - there’s simply no way you can do away with checks & controls. The negotiators have not been able to explain them to us and that’s not their fault, it’s because they don’t exist.'

It's the trip to Blackpool and the lines 'no shipwrecks or drownings, nothing to laugh at at all' that sticks in my mind as being vaguely Brexit related.
Of lesser (berxit) relevance is the 'Lampton Worm'.
Both need telling in a good NE accent, Geordie or a bit 'further away' so 'outsiders' can understand.

Jill concludes: 'The final landing point if we get through the Withdrawal Agreement is still unclear. That’s why you’ll see more people in the UK saying this is too difficult, shall we go for a Citizens’ Assembly to try and tell the politicians what Leave means.'

Well, for me, Leave means Remain.

More Lanky than Geordie...

Both need telling in a good NE accent, Geordie or a bit 'further away' so 'outsiders' can understand.

Quite aside from the fact Maddy Prior has the voice of an angel, I love the singing in accent ...

GE??

What, and I cant stress this enough, the fuck??

🙄🤬🤬🤬🤬

What's May's incentive to call a General Election (remembering that she has already promised that she will resign before the next GE)?

James Forsyth @jgforsyth
Why the ERG will be making an epoch-defining mistake if they don’t vote for the Brady amendment

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/01/it-would-be-a-mistake-for-the-erg-to-not-back-the-brady-amendment/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
It would be a mistake for the ERG to not back the Brady amendment

Bernard Jenkin has just told ITV’s Romilly Weeks that he won’t currently be voting for the Brady amendment. This suggests that the amendment won’t have the numbers as a large chunk of the ERG won’t vote for it.

Even from an ERG perspective, this is—to my mind—a tactical mistake. If the Brady amendment doesn’t get a majority on Tuesday, it will be taken by Brussels and by many in the cabinet as proof that a Tory DUP alliance can’t get any withdrawal agreement through. After all, anyone who won’t vote for Brady is saying that they wouldn’t vote for the withdrawal agreement even if the backstop was replaced by ‘alternative arrangements’ designed to prevent a hard border.

In these circumstances, Theresa May’s pivot back towards her own party will have failed. Given that the Commons would bring the government down if it went for no deal, the only options May would have left in these circumstances would be to soften Brexit to try and get Labour support or to request an extension to Article 50 and fight a general election on the basis of her deal. Neither of these outcomes would be desirable from an ERG point of view.

And hence the GE rumour (which I've not seen pop up on my twitter yet despite being online and searching for latest Brexit stuff. Will see how long that lasts...)

The Speccy article has this curious response

Andrew Lilico @ andrew_lilico
May cancelling Brexit is one way for the ERG to win. A v v painful way - no deal would be much better - but a route to victory nonetheless.

The argument for voting for the Brady amendment is that the EU will surely reject it anyway. The risk with voting for the Brady amendment is that the EU could accept it.

Now... I shall leave that spin with you - 'The way for the ERG to win is to cancel Brexit'

What were the ERG doing for the two years the Withdrawal Agreement was being negotiated?

Why did they only speak up as soon as it was locked?

I live in London and look forward to the the day I will inevitably see Boris Johnson on the street so I can give him a disgusted look in person.

She said she wouldn't lead them into another GE.

She's not been "leading" for a long time

would there be anything positive in a general election being called? I presume to do so they'd need to extend Article 50 but beyond that with fptp isn't it still just a choice between one of two pro- Brexit parties? I know some Labour politicians like angela Rayner (and Corbyn himself) waffle on about getting a 'better deal' but that's just waffle isn't it?