Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

Ta1k was the perfect size for my littler tray...waste not want not!

I had wondered about that!

Better start liking rabbits and pigeon!

Hare is ok.
Havebt had rabbit for years...

Well, only have a little freezer so must worry arrrrgh!

I'm feeling left out: I've never received a copy of Weatherspoon News

....and there's one only 1.5 miles away not that I've ever been in to it - only reason I know it's there is because I always have to hold my breath walking past it due to all the smokers congregating outside

Sorry, just saw the neutral motion got explained! Thread moves fast.

I haven't seen the Wetherspoons newsletter but we are in a majority Remain area (with a Tory Brexiteer MP. We're one of the constituencies who shifted from true blue Tory to marginal at the last election). So maybe Wetherspoons aren't bothering with us?

If they do though, will post it back to them minus the stamp.

Anna Soubry MP @Anna_Soubry
Apparently the Labour Party is abstaining on the 2nd Reading of the Immigration Bill. Yes the Labour Party. This Tory will be voting against it.

LawyersAgainstBrexit @Lawyers4EU
Retweeted Labour Campaign for Human Rights
Despite knowing this? The Immigration Bill will remove existing rights protections for EU citizens & leave individuals in an “uncertain situation” unless the Govt acts to protect them - @HarrietHarman, Chair of the @HumanRightsCtte @LabourCHR

Labour Campaign for Human Rights @LabourCHR
The Immigration Bill, getting a 2nd reading on 28 Jan, will remove existing rights protections for EU citizens & leave individuals in an “uncertain situation” unless the Govt acts to protect them, according to @HarrietHarman, Chair of the @HumanRightsCtte:
www.parliament.uk/documents/joint-committees/human-rights/correspondence/190123-Chair-Home-Secretary-Immigration-Social-Security-Coordination-Bill.pdf

So Harriett Harman, Chair of the Human Rights Select Committee, writes to Sajid Javid to tell him how awful the Immigration Bill and what it does to EU citizens rights and THEN Labour decide to ABSTAIN, effectively approving the bill by default.

And Anna Soubry has to point this shit out.

I hope there is some Labour rebelling on this.

Word to the wise - if one posts something back to the sender without postage, and puts into the envelope any other junk mail they may have around, I believe the sender of the original post will have to pay for the whole lot, even if the envelope is bulging. People used to do it to the charity I worked for.

Not that I'd suggest such a thing for any pub chain sending out unsolicited plagiarised crap, ho no.

I wish all the centrist MPs (e.g. Soubry) on both sides would leave their extreme left and right wing colleagues and join together in a new centrist party with some Lib Dems

That is my ultimate dream unicorn

Umpteen I had hoped for that too but looks unlikely. I do hope the parties split after B.day though, we need more central parties.

I've been wanting that for 2 years...

If it hasn't happened by now it wont happen

@RedToothBrush
Thanks for all the information.... just read everything posted yesterday and today.... as a newcomer could I put in a plea for a key to the commonly used abbreviations in the first post of the next continuation thread? Thanks.
So much to say.
Thanks for the laughs upthread re cannibalism - anyone read Jonathan Swift's "A Modest Proposal"?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal
Spudlet: I would suggest that that neighbour goes to the top of the list to go in the stew.
To those knocking horsemeat, don't you realise that it is a delicacy in France? Much more tender and expensive than boring old beef!
On a serious note, to those worried about not being able to get fresh veg, and not being able to grow your own, buy plenty of packs of seeds to sprout - at least that way you will get the vitamins, even if you have to fill up on rice and pasta.

Thanks to the poster who pin-pointed the Heinz factory post: obviously made by a bear of very little brain.

To the person who asked about sending their DD to stay with friends on mainland Europe, I think it's an excellent idea - if any of my friends or family asked me to take in their kids I would do so without a minute's hesitation. Just make sure she's clear of the country by about 15th March as things are likely to get complicated at the borders if a No Deal is in sight.....

I am making a last trip to the UK next week - and hope to avoid too much heated debate with my 85 year old DM who voted leave as she wants a return to the "good old days" when Britannia ruled the waves etc. (cont. p.94). Unfortunately she is unlikely to live long enough to see the end result of her folly and the negative impact on her grandchildren's lives.
Who knows when I will be able to return after 29th March...... it would, of course, be poetic justice if I were unable to attend her funeral due to a break down or log jam in cross Channel transport infrastructure. (BTW as far as I know she is not dying any time soon but she is of an age when it would not really be unexpected).

BBC headline: Backbench MPs are trying to change direction of Brexit

What direction?! What have I missed? I thought we were just wondering around aimlessly.

Wait! We have a direction??

spudlet interesting...

Eh?

Direction??

What have I missed??

Yes we have a direction.

Up shit creek paddling around in circles.

I think it's clockwise. Tick tick tick.

as a newcomer could I put in a plea for a key to the commonly used abbreviations in the first post of the next continuation thread?

If time allows I'll try to.

Meanwhile, threads around Brexit are popping up everywhere ...

{BBC headline: Backbench MPs are trying to change direction of Brexit}
From a circular motion to a form of truncated helix (if that is the right term), like the thread on a woodscrew.

Odd isn't it DGR. Almost as if there was a dawning realisation or abject panic setting in.

Matt Dathan @ matt_dathan
Labour frontbench source says they'll be backing both the Yvette Cooper and Dominic Grieve amendments (to delay and give MPs weekly indicative votes on Brexit) but official announcement not expected until tomorrow.

It's not hard to announce this, if there is full agreement...

@bigly Spokespersons for 20-40 ministers have reportedly told May to produce a Brexit plan by mid-Feb that avoids No Deal
or they'll all resign.

Even May would struggle to stay on after that unprecedented blow.
Even if she tried to replace them,
considering the number of ministers she's already lost, plus all the dingbats too dangerous & stupid even for her,

she'd be down to appointing Larry the No 10 Cat to sit on several Cabinet chairs ^

• and hope people don't notice the increased IQ in her govt

So, if all amendments fail, or Brady / Murrison one passes and the EU slaps it down (which they would), then

she'll probably bring back her original WA

and tell Parliament that it's her WA or No Deal or No Brexit
(and that she'll spin her No. 10 crap coin to decide the last 2 if she has to)

Erskine May [HoC "bible"] says on repeat votes:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-theresa-may-no-deal-vote-commons-repeat-parliament-jeremy-corbyn-a8714241.html

“A motion or an amendment which is the same, in substance, as a question which has been decided during a session may not be brought forward again during that same session.”
.....
"a decision on whether “verbal alterations” amount to real changes are “a matter for the judgment of the chair [the Speaker, John Bercow]”.
< he could decide anything ! >

< Failing that: the next session would start in about June, so she could ask the EU for an A50 extension just long enough for the HoC to pass the WA,
with another 3 month extension to follow only if it passed, to give enough time for all the neccessary follow up legislation >

A little list of abbreviations to save RTB some time...I think these cover the main ones we use...

A50 - Article 50
B Day - Brexit Day (currently 29th March)
BINO - 'Brexit in Name Only'
CU - customs union
DM - Daily Mail
ERG - European Research Group (name of group of c.86/87 hard Brexiteer Tories)
FT - Financial Times
HoC - House of Commons
HoL - House of Lords
NDA - Non Disclosure Agreement (legal agreement put in place to prevent certain people/companies from sharing specified information)
PMK - place marking on the thread (which somehow became plaice mat king and sometimes plaice cat king)
SM - single market
WA - Withdrawal Agreement
WTO - world trade organisation

Today's evening Standard editorial backs the constitutional legitimacy of both the Cooper-Boles amendment.

www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-ignore-the-threats-our-mps-can-take-control-a4050626.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Evening Standard comment: Ignore the threats, our MPs can take control

Nick Boles @ nickboles
“The constitutional oracles of Dicey and Bagehot could not be clearer. The House of Commons is in absolute control of its own procedure; and that procedure, enshrined in standing orders, can be changed by a majority in the Commons.”