Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

She isn't bringing the WA back tomorrow per se...just some sort of neutral motion which then has allowed 19 amendments to have been put forward

So tomorrow isn't a meaningful vote on the WA, it's really on the amendments.

I don't really understand the practical element of the 'neutral motion' though, as in...does it say something? What?

Got all that Bellini and I do genuinely get on with my neighbours. We live in an ex-council house that is part of a row built for farm workers, so we're also a way out of town, and our houses aren't much to look at so we don't look like good targets. I think we'll be ok.

It's more the sentiment that saddens me, the divisions that have been created and those that were already there that have been exposed and deepened. There is going to need to be a lot of work to heal these divisions, but I just can't see it happening for a long time.

Thanks umpteen. So she is pulling bureaucratic wizardry. That makes more sense now....well, as much sense as anything right now.

From the Guardian feed EU says withdrawal agreement 'not open for renegotiation', as No 10 says deal must change

I'm running out of exasperation and just feel like I'm living in a perpetual state of despairing sighs.

I did a law degree including modules on constitutional and public law and I've come to realise via Brexit there is still a lot I don't understand about the practices of Parliament and how they use motions, amendments, codicils, etc.

If anyone can shed any more light on the 'neutral motion' device being used tomorrow please do!

I was a civil servant and then a lobbyist for ten years and i don't know either. Just looking it up in my copy of How Parliament Works (!)

I'm not 100% but isn't neutral motion almost like the opposite to the vote of no confidence, but smaller? So we don't like your plan but we have some support here for this area...? You need to look at it.

I see what you are saying Spud and agree. However I have considered whether, when it all kicks off, I should even open our front door. I'm a single parent and feel a bit of a target in my naice street as I had a lib dem sign out for the last election as the only remain party . I'm convinced half of the road (60+ voted tory and Leave) see me as a typical liberal elite, disgraceful scarlet woman *Disclaimer, I don't go out and haven't seen any action for almost as long as dd has been alive. Doesn't stop the curtain twitchers though!

So we don't like your plan but we have some support here for this area...? You need to look at it.

So a sort of parliamentary brainstorming session? They stick the WA on the wall and everyone can pop up post-it notes in the form of amendments saying what they think should be different?

Can you tell I have no idea what's going on anymore.

It may just be that the motion for the debate is phrased in neutral terms. This is the motion:

The Prime Minister
That this House, in accordance with the provisions of section 13(6)(a) and 13(11)(b)(i) and 13(13)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, has considered the Written Statement titled “Statement under Section 13(4) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018” and made on 21 January 2019, and the Written Statement titled “Statement under Section 13(11)(a) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018”and made on 24 January.

This link is a useful explanation: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/motions

Just found it...says "How motions are expressed can be important. Motions expressed in neutral terms simply ask Parliament to consider a topic and allow MPs or Peers to talk about a specific issue. Motions expressed in non-neutral terms, or ‘substantive’ motions, ask Parliament to take a view on an issue or take a decision"

X post with Spudlet

We've talked about the setting up of private police and security being the Brexit opportunity business to be investing in before...

Add that to the fact that a lot of land which looks public isn't ....

Bigly...TBF that's the best layman's explanation I've heard!

Yes...the amendments are 19 post it notes being stuck up and the workshop attendees MPs are sticking those little coloured dots on the ones they like most voting on them.

Since the topic of Ireland - and in particular the total lack of understanding by a lot of British people (I include myself in that) about it has been mentioned, I found this thread fascinating. 53 posts (at time of typing) about people fascinated on what might be offensive to distant cultures and societies, and not a flicker of interest on things that might be deeply offensive in your own country which can of course, include other cultures.

Will there be gas and electric shortages too? Seems pointless having a freezer full of food if the electric gets cut.

Bigly...TBF that's the best layman's explanation I've heard!

Why thank you. I used to do process redesign and had a lot of workshops just like that.

My Sunday supper last night was venison - bought from my butcher 1 mile away and shot on farmland two miles away.
THere are far too many deer in this country. Venison stew seven days a week

Gas. Unlikely. (Pipeline from Norway). Electricity. Possible but unlikely. Though you might have more reason to worry if you are in NI because its a cross border network.

Its not something that should be high on your list of fears, but if you are stockpiling forward purchasing then you'd be wise to think about how you might cope if there were short brown outs.

Have begun to think about rubbish. IIRC one of the reasons my dad wasn't keen on labour was that he could remember the strikes with rubbish strewn everywhere.

I think many of us are going to have issues with plastic packaging waste. We don't throw much food away but compost what we do (or the dog does his own version of composting). Maybe some kind of craft threads could spring up to fashion waterproof coats out of food wrappers?

@BiglyBadgers

I used to do a lot of process design too...Six Sigma/Lean in the insurance industry mainly

🤓

Is a neutral motion like the "motion to take note"? So they can debate a topic without voting on it?

www.parliament.uk/site-information/glossary/motions-to-take-note/

OMFG - I just had Wetherspoon News delivered with my post ..... I'll take some pictures later for anybody who does not have a copy

Yuk! Don't like game at all.

Maybe I will finally go veggie??

Don't get the fuss about fois gras tbh ...just meat paste innit??

I've just ordered beeswax wraps, I'm switching to reusable kitchen towels too.

Bar soap, not packaged in plastic bottles.

I'm also thinking of getting a basic sewing machine...

Deistel but veg will be this hardest thing to get!
As I mused on t'other thread, veganism might have to be rethought.