Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

I ate horse in the Netherlands before I'd finished my Dutch course (accidental purchase prior to mobile phones, online translating etc). Not bad. Don't knock it until you've tried it.

Even my dog won't eat horse meat!

@red That Guardian article is imo considerably over-egging the trade disaster, which is not helpful
The basic facts of No Deal are quite bad enough without exaggeration.

From what I've gathered, especially from source material provided by R North, but also opinions from non-British (more neutral) trade experts,

the UK can theoretically trade on its own proposed WTO schedules & quotas , potentially for several years, even though other countries object

BUT
even though the UK would not suffer official WTO sanctions,
any country could choose to apply punitive tariffs or additional NTBs (Non-Tariff barriers) if they strongly object
e.g. like Trump did
It just depends if anyone is in the mood - and feels strong enough - to give us a kicking

AND
To enable WTO terms, Parliament would have to pass hundreds of bills by Brexit day - possibly using Henry VIII powers simply to pass them in huge blocks without debate

AND
of course trading almost solely on WTO terms would absolutely hammer the UK economy.

Where I do agree with the article is that No Deal won't be like downturns we have known in modern times:
We feel the pinch if there is a recession, i.e. GDP reduces for 3 successive quarters, usually only a fraction of 1%

If Carney / BoE are anywhere in the ballpark with their 8% GDP reduction within 1 years, then that is a Depression

German & other economists have estimated that No Deal could be as bad for the most affected EU countries as the 2008 financial crash.
The UK would be at least an order of magnitude worse affected than the EU, but those economists haven't - maybe haven't dared - given an estimate for the UK

Had most of the day away and am speed reading catching up on the thread. Amidst the horse meat discussion I misread Theelements "Nah, I'd hate my colleagues" as " I ate my colleagues" ...

The odd things is I was only a bit shocked. Desperate times..

Our two boy cats are expert birders and mousers (5 mice that we know about and one small pigeon which was stunned but we rescued and did eventually disappear from the windowsill we put it on this year).

Maybe we'll need to start keeping the pigeons for our own supplies!

My dad used to be a farmer and is totally unsqueamish at wringing squirrels or magpies' necks. I'm sure he knows how to skin them too. (We used to have a jackal skin on the back of a chair at home: it had been terrorising the hen house when we were still in South Africa.... ).

The cupboard thread had reached an ok point when I was last reading, I got some good ideas for making bread and for storing cooked stuff in a freezer to maximise space :)

I won't read the cupboard thread:

I've no patience with wilful stupidity or deliberate trolling, even when this is just a minority of posts.
and if I read any more "just like the Millenium Bug" 🤦🏻‍♀️ my iPad would go flying across the room

So I consider my poor iWank and avoid

Yvette was great this morning on Andrew Marr. Seems unlikely her amendment is going to get through sadly. Corbs is a disgrace.

There's new eu tax haven legislation coming in April, I believe.

I would just love to know who this affects.

I think I'm at the hysterical giggles stage with that thread. Not helped by watching Jaws 3 while running a temp.

I thought Yvette did well. I mean, just where is Corbyn? Its like waiting for someone to come out of the bathroom then finding out they're actually having a big poo and are going to be some time.

{There's new eu tax haven legislation coming in April, I believe.

I would just love to know who this affects.}
Well you could start with many members of the ERG and anyone else with a few million in an account.

The Isle of Man is welcoming all-comers, apparently.

www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cfm?id=45087&headline=We%27re%20ready%20for%20a%20no-deal%20Brexit%20says%20Skelly&sectionIs=News&searchyear=2019

Although I suspect it'll be as buggered as the rest of the British Isles, but with the right kind of kippers.

I hope those 20-40 ministers have a serious plan to force May to bring her plan within that 2 weeks deadline they are supposed to be setting.

iirc, the 10 hardest cases in the ERG have already threatened to vote against all govt legislation unless she whips for Murrison II
They may not go through with that particular threat,
but if she actually took real steps to avoid No Deal and / or didn't remove the backstop, then they very likely would do something.

May is faced with an extreme batshit rightwing who would actually destroy their own govt to force a No Deal Brexit.
She always gives in if she thinks it will hold the party together a little longer.
So those ministers against No Deal also need a credible threat - OK, mass resignations .... and then what ?

Pootles just catching up and 💐 re your dad, that's so sad.

Thank you @Chiara

I miss him constantly. Plus, my mother is a nightmare and unable to look after herself. She's still very 1950s, but not in a good way.

I seem to remember eating rabbit uses up as much calories as you get from the meat...so not a great solution. I may be wrong. I think it's the same for celery? I really should sleep but feeling to anxious atm.

Thanks for the flow chart, I enjoyed it and appreciated the visual. It helps me to visualise things. I'm finding this whole mess hard going but this thread is great.

The brexit cupboard is ace. I swear surferjet has been abducted by aliens though as the about face is startling. I'm heading back there now for further entertainment.

Did anyone watch Inside The Factory about Heinz beans? Was good but then I love a factory.

And the mind map has become a tad more complicated it seems

I am of a certain age and do indeed remember Weekend World. Presenter was called Brian something iirc.

DH and I watched Marr and said much the same as you re Yvette.

Still haven’t found the Heinz post...

Interestingly he seems to now think it is more likely EU will give us extra time if we simply say we need more and there is no arrow to "we drop out with No Deal" as a consequence of time running out. Maybe i'm missing something?

I've just been to the cupboard thread and my mind is boggled. There really is no reasoning with stupid.
Shout out to all the Yvette fans

The Heinz post is from browneyes today at 19:47 on page 27.

lonely that flow chart

So it’s

No deal = country in crisis
Revoke = political crisis
Article 50 extension = who knows

It’s like being asked how you would like to be murderd - with a gun, knife or being pushed off a cliff (and no there isn’t a soft landing or a unicorn waiting to fly you away to the sunlit uplands).

I remember Weekend World back when Peter Jay presented it - his FIL Jim Callaghan later made him Ambassador to the US
then it was Brian Walden, iirc one of the ex-Labour MPs who pronounce "r" as "w"

Nevertheless, it was serious political interviews and analysis