Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

Yes, reads like Cluedo - we have a secret envelope with variation but the constant is someone is dead.

PMK again.

Some days I manage to laugh at the sheer insanity of all this. Preparations for martial law in the event of Brexit, but no one will give us another vote because they're too afraid? Come on, someone somewhere start talking seriously.

I’m reading ‘The Siege’ by Helen Dunmore about the siege of Leningrad which she researched meticulously. People end up eaten their pets and burning furniture and books for firewood. Apparently, if you boil leather, it releases something which is quite nutritious,
Things could be worse. I would be loathe to burn my books but have built up quite a collection of ‘Take a Break’ and ‘Chat’. I think I’ll hang onto them just in case

Oh my @LonelyandTiredandLow that is a brain teaser! We had the previous version that was doing the rounds from Henry Zeffman printed out and stuck on our wall in the office - I shall replace it with this!

PCPlums - not much meat on my greyhound , but my cat is pretty tubby due to her lazing around all day every day

Fair analysis by Matthew D’Ancona, who I normally can’t stand, of Brexit’s damage to the Tories:

It was a Conservative government that called the referendum, and a Conservative prime minister who – having squandered her party’s majority in the 2017 general election – bought the support of the Democratic Unionist party with taxpayers’ money so she could stay in power and finish the job. Brexit is a Tory gig.

And it has brought out the very, very worst in the party. The attack on “Teutonic arrogance” by Mark Francois MP – in response to the warning by Airbus boss Tom Enders of the consequences of a no-deal withdrawal – would be easy to dismiss were it not the tip of a nativist iceberg.

It is uniquely dispiriting to see intelligent Conservatives cheerleading or appeasing this drive towards disaster Brexit has summoned the very worst demons that lurk in the Conservative psyche, liberating Tories to bellow nonsense about the second world war, the blitz spirit and pseudo-Churchillian defiance. It has fatally compounded the party’s demented fixation with immigration and distracted it from the true challenges of the 21st century."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/27/tory-values-conservative-party-repellent-brexit

No Deal because we run out of time is quite likely

The EU might decide they'd rather have more time to prep and hence grant an extension ....
but this would still lead to No Deal if the Uk parliament is logjammed

It would mean months more of Farage & Tory batshitters in the EP
and European Council meetings with May haranguing them

Hence they might instead decide it better to let the UK experience the shock of a No Deal on 29 March,
hoping that govt & Parliament would get a sharp reality check before too much more harm is done.

I don't know anyone who isn't a leave voter who would admit voting Tory now.

Just read this article relating to Davos which reminds us partly how we are in this mess with disillusioned workers and low pay. Just as EU pass the recent work/home balance legislation that was linked to on the other thread.

As an aside, does anyone have a link or twitter'er who is keeping track of all of the legislation TM keep 'assuring' us all they are 'writing into UK law'? I don't think they use the word 'enshrine' anymore...

Tory politicians - excluding the alarming number of chronically stupid - must realise how comprehensively they have fucked up the country:

• from years of austerity which made those worst affected deperate to vote against the man responsible
• to the ridiculous risky referendum itself - such a complex topic with such high stakes
• abandoning the EEA / EFTA Brexit the world was expecting and instead insisting on red lines which turned Brexit from a very bad economic decision to a potential disaster for the country for decades
• savaging businesses and experts who dare raise facts
• and finally, whipping up a mindless nationalism that they cannot control

They are riding the back of a tiger,
which is always very dangerous to let go
So they are hanging on, hoping the tiger will get tired before it gets hungry enough for the juicy morsels riding it....

Maybe this is all a social experiment on a nationwide scale conducted by psychologists and sociologists without our consent. With all the batshittery going on, it's not beyond the realms of possibility.

Peverse - I think it was a link upthread about CA and Trump that stated UK was a "petri dish for USA" with Brexit.
No doubt more data harvesting has been going on to map out reactions. Does make it seem likely something similar, under Trump, will happen over the pond.

Although the main thing over there was to get Trump in power. As the wealthiest nation I guess they didn't factor in the end result for us would be trade/economic turmoil. Or maybe they did and just wanted to stick one to us.

PlaiceCat...

Pmk. I do swagbucks sometimes and have often had surveys lately asking about my views on various politicians, mostly Tory. I usually get disqualified from the surveys due I'm assuming to the vehemence of my dislike. 😁

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
The view from Dublin on Brady’s ‘codicil’ and Johnson’s ‘freedom clause’ addition to the Withdrawal Treaty

Tony Connelly @tconnellyrte
Two points to the codicil idea. The Irish Govt believes anything added to a treaty changes the treaty. Second, what would the codicil say?

Codicil = exit clause

www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8292363/theresa-may-rule-out-no-deal/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May ‘privately told Cabinet ministers she will rule out No Deal’
The Sun has learnt that the Prime Minister will not let Britain leave the EU without a deal, but she is not ready to rule out no deal in public because it would affect key negotiations with Brussels

She could of course cock it up and exit accidentally and I can't see her revoking. Still.

Theresa May ‘privately told Cabinet ministers she will rule out No Deal’

I'll clutch any straw -even from the Sun.

Morning!!

I wonder what fresh hell today will bring!!??

Crikey, it's a rare day that I am crossing my fingers and hoping the S*n is right about something

Well, certain Tory politicians THINK it would affect our negotiations with Brussels
So May has to play along.

However, in logical moments I remond myself:

Large E27 members like France and Germany have capable enough intelligence services

• hell Ireland and tiny Luxembourd do ! - to check that the UK has genuinely only spent under 5 billion on prepping (the maximum that Hammond would tolerate on something that is just to mislead the public / EU)

and that is about 1/10 of what we'd actually need to prep properly
and indeed our prepping is only about 1/10 done, 1% in the case of Fox and trade deals
We are horrifyingly not prepared

then I remind myself of what incompetent, irresponsible, corrupt screwups this govt are

• significantly damaging & dividing the country to save their party = seriously corrupt, not just irresponsible^

so it could still be No Deal because:

• incompetence, misjudging the HoC, waiting too long

• waiting until the last moment to bring out the original WA again and then being trapped by ERG tactics HoC / HoL that run out the time

• Refusing to Revoke or even apply to Extend, if she fails to pass the WA
  May advocated Remain and imo has no genuine liking for Brexit
  BUT I often fear
  she would rather destroy the country slowly than the Tory party quickly

Hopefully just continuing a game and anyway,
no sane PM would confide her cunning plan to an idiot like Hancock ....

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/db3fb0b8-227d-11e9-8d35-0e32f390087a

A senior minister has praised the “extremely valuable” work of Conservative MPs demanding radical changes to the Irish backstop in the clearest indication yet that they had the tacit support of Downing Street.

Tory Brexiteers are coalescing around an amendment to Theresa May’s Brexit motion tomorrow.
It vows to back the prime minister’s deal with the EU on condition that the insurance plan to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is replaced by “alternative arrangements”.

The amendment is being championed by Sir Graham Brady, the Brexiteer and chairman of the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers.
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, told ITV:
“The impulse behind those who’ve supported the Brady amendment I entirely understand.”
< health sec is NOT classed as a senior Cabinet post >

I know a few remain voters who have voted a variety of ways who are very definitely in the ABC camp - anyone but corbyn. They say they will vote Tory. They do tend to lean moderate conservative.

The brexit cupboard is ace. I swear surferjet has been abducted by aliens though as the about face is startling. I'm heading back there now for further entertainment.

Are we really sure Surferjet hasn’t been hacked?

Otherwise I’m using this as my high water mark moment.

I dearly hope the Sun's article about TM ultimately ruling out no deal is true. However no matter how we leave, the true battle will still be raging and that's the onslaught on liberal democracy. Very interesting analysis of US politics imo also relevant here:

The current conservative movement has decided it no longer wishes to be part of a liberal democracy.

www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/27/american-exceptionalism-has-to-die-david-neiwert-on-the-rise-of-the-far-right

So do they rename the backstop "alternative arrangements" and hope the brexiteers are too stupid pleased with the victory to notice?