Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

sorry.. I mean forward purchase.

I just read that article RTB. It's going to be worse than we all think, I just can't believe this is happening. 😥

OYBBK, I'm not sure I've seen a Best Before Date after 2021.

Well...crap. But we don’t listen to experts so no need to worry.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/27/uk-cannot-simply-trade-on-wto-terms-after-no-deal-brexit-say-experts

^UK cannot simply trade on WTO terms after no-deal Brexit, say experts
UK may face seven-year wait for frictionless trade under WTO rules if it crashes out of EU^

The UK will be unable to have frictionless, tariff-free trade under World Trade Organization rules for up to seven years in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to two leading European Union law specialists.

The ensuing chaos could double food prices and plunge Britain into a recession that could last up to 30 years, claim the lawyers who acted for Gina Miller in the historic case that forced the government to seek parliament’s approval to leave the EU.

There are two apparently insurmountable hurdles to the UK trading on current WTO tariffs in the event of Britain crashing out in March, said Howard.

Firstly, the UK must produce its own schedule covering both services and each of the 5,000-plus product lines covered in the WTO agreement and get it agreed by all the 163 WTO states in the 32 remaining parliamentary sitting days until 29 March 2019. A number of states have already raised objections to the UK’s draft schedule: 20 over goods and three over services.

The second hurdle is the sheer volume of domestic legislation that would need to be passed before being able to trade under WTO rules: there are nine statutes and 600 statutory instruments that would need to be adopted.

The government cannot simply cut and paste the 120,000 EU statutes into UK law and then make changes to them gradually, Howard said. “The UK will need to set up new enforcement bodies and transfer new powers to regulators to create our own domestic regimes,” she said.

“Basic maths shows that we will run out of time but any gap in our system will create uncertainty or conflict,” said Howard. “Some of these regimes carry penalties such as fines – even criminal offences in some sectors.”

So basically, we can’t even crash out without a major headache.
From that article, I’m not even sure how the UK couod trade with the rest of the world.
No wonder any company who CAN move abroad is doing so ASAP.

Saw this tweet about that article - looks slightly more optimistic? twitter.com/davidheniguk/status/1089580125665091587?s=21

Ah, missed RTB post with the same article!

This tweet:

I'm diagnosing myself with Brexit Aggravated Stress Tourette's And Rage Disorder (BASTARD). Going by Twitter, I'd say there's an epidemic.

Personally I think this article may just be spouting a certain amount of nonsense. (As in, I am taking with a huge pinch of salt).

Being the cynic that I am, I wonder what legislation is or has been passed under the radar whilst all the focus has been on the Brexit debates/votes.

OK, if you are an anorak and watch Parliament TV on sitting days and know what has been passed, but for the majority, no one really knows do they?

I know there is nothing new really about that, as most of us just expect our Government to pass laws that are beneficial to us. But I am wary. Very.

@nicoala1

Heres one. It allows ministers to take control of medicines.

twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1088769405067108352?s=19

Does anyone know what the latest Grieve amendment says exactly?

I know it's to get Parliament to vote on a variety of options but...

Does it say which options?
In what timeframe do the votes take place on the options?
Does it say anything about needing an extension?

I've tried googling but it's quite tough to find the detail as the search throws up lots of garb about his previous amendments.

Is it wrong that I'm really enjoying the influx of fresh blood on the Brexit Cupboard thread? It's just so boneheadedly entertaining.

Placing cats (and dogs).

Your patience is a virtue Elements I’ve stopped posting on it cos my sweary levels were increasing

Elements what thread are you talking about? I want to have a nosey.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/a3489905-dh-and-his-brexit-cupboard?

This one Loletta - I'd set aside a few hours if you want to read it it's been going for many hundreds of posts, people have been patiently playing Whack-a-Mole with the Brexit Bingo and sanity was gradually emerging... but this evening it got into Trending and the batshittery has dialled up even more.

Does it raise your blood pressure? If so, maybe I should pass

Its stunning that thread. STUNNING.

It'll raise your eyebrows thats for sure.

I think there will be people surprised to learn that crisps are made from potatoes and tomatoes often come from spain in that thread.

BUT THE HEINZ FACTORY IS HERE, YOU SCAREMONGER.

Whack-a-mole on here is quite entertaining, as long as you don't kid yourself you are changing any minds. Remain definitely winning the culture wars on MN.

Whack-a-mole on here is quite entertaining, as long as you don't kid yourself you are changing any minds.

I assume that none of the drive-by empty-slogan-spritzers can be persuaded, but there are plenty of people who lurk. And I think there were a few on that thread who did seem to change their minds, so that was really something.

Elements, thats a post I will remember for quite some time I have to admit.

I feel very reassured by the teleporting Heinz Factory. I feel that there should be a sci-fi tv series based on its powers. A bit like Stargate but with baked beans.

That Heinz factory post has just done for me.

I did 't think I had the capacity to be surprised by people's utter fucking gormlessness after 2.5 years of Brexit. But I still do, it appears. It's quite heartening, in a way.

I would commission that series if I were the BBC!