Westminstenders: The English Gentleman and Martial Law

[RedToothBrush]

Ahead of Tuesday's vote, let's have a quick look at the week's developments.

The Cooper-Boles Amendment seems to be in trouble. The amendment is designed to force government to extend A50 if the WA fails to pass parliament in order to prevent No Deal.

It's in trouble in several ways.

After lots of loud noises from Labour about supporting it, they have made no formal move to. Thus there is no requirement for Labour MPs to vote for it. The noise was just for Remain ears whilst trying to keep leavers on board.

The amendment is struggling for numbers; many of the former Labour MPs are extremely unreliable at votes and haven't turned up even for important ones of late. In addition to this, Tory rebels are backing away from it out of fear from a backlash from their grassroots who believe they are trying to stop Brexit. There was talk of up to 20 ministers resigning to back it, including Amber Rudd, yet as Sunday has dawned there's no sign yet and its usually the day for such political statements. Though there is time yet.

And finally there is the prospect of Murrison II. Now also backed by 1922 heavyweights Graham Brady and Damien Green this seeks to remove the backstop from the WA on our side.

Except the EU has said that this would not be the WA if it does not contain the backstop. And they would not ratify it.

Yet rumours are May is close to a majority to get the WA through with Murrison II.

There has been much speculation over what would happen to the Irish border in a no deal with Farage sticking his oar in saying "nothing". Whilst Barnier states that there would, but the Irish government are avoiding the subject. We have now had the comment that it would mean the return of Irish soldiers to the border...

We could have a looming situation where parliament passes Murrison II AND Cooper-Boles. But Cooper-Boles deemed invalid cos the WA has been passed by Parliament but in effect isn't worth the paper (or goat skin) it's written on. Thus no deal could still happen by 'accident'.

There's been talk of Murrison II not being picked by Bercow, and how this would provoke a walkout by government. It seems that since he's done it once it would be difficult to ignore.

And whilst all this is going on we now have the mainstream newspapers saying that there are plans for martial law, 'forward purchasing' of food, fuel and ammunition. Talk of travel bans and property seizure. And just general plans for the collapse of free society and the supply of basic essentials for continuous of life. And many ERG MPs are tweeting things which seem to be rather fond and happy with the idea.

Do not forget: What happens when May is gone? Who replaces her, and what are their views on liberal society and freedom. Cos that all looks rather 'troubling' in an authoritarian state kind of way. What power would they wield?

Just what are we sleep walking into?

A reminder!
= dazzled by inconsequentialities

DG I did specifically say I wasn’t referring to your post when I mentioned gloating

fair enough, but it doesn't do any harm for me to check my postings. I'd hate to upset anyone that didn't deserve it ....

Re: the prisoners, there's at least one precedent I can think of, which is that during the American Civil War, the Confederacy, running short of men, gave prisoners a pardon if they would join the army.

And then used prisoners as slave labour during the reconstruction (as Lucy Worsleys documentary last week explained).

Oh, and still do !!!!!!!

ballyhoo and I'd be astonished if a QMV of the E27 leaders would sign that Murrison-buggered WA either.

iirc, there are 12 small countries who are members and they won't want the precedent of sacrificing small countries for the "greater good"
and Ireland has been very successfully using all its diplomatic skills ever since the ref to build up support.

Much like they did in the US, during the Troubles, when the UK was totally outclassed by them.
I remember how even friendly US politicians who would actually meet with a visiting SoS for NI would take great care not to be photographed with them - too much of a vote loser.

So in the event of No Deal, an FTA quickie with Trump might well not get through Congress

The last Murrison ammendment wasn't selected by Bercow, was it?

No, instead he chose an amendment in the same vein as Murrison tabled by John Baron. It was worded terribly.

Not that Murrison was worded amazingly. It just wasn't as bad as the Baron amendment.

The reason Bercow made a point of not selecting Murrison was because it was obviously a goverment amendment in disguise.

In the end it was not supported because the ERG decided they wanted a 'clean vote' on the WA in order to try and kill it dead. They felt that the amendment would muddy the waters and allow May to stick to supporting the WA. (That one has worked out well!)

This time around Murrison is also backed by Graham Brady, so has some heavy weight support (Brady was actually one of the 24 who backed Baron last time). And this business of a clean vote, is now irrelevant, cos the WA is still kicking about and its become clear that supporting the WA might be the only way that Brexiteers can get Brexit over the line (or sabotaging the WA depending on how you look at it).

(there is reportedly a draft FTA ready, where it is assumed Fox simply bent over, because a properly negotiated one should have taken 5-15 years)

American prisoners were used during the recent fires, they were trained but not exactly paid.

Voting for Murrison doesn't get the WA over the line.
It just lets the Tory party 100% blame the EU for No Deal

Wouldn't it be funny if all the bills and motions and amendments had the real meaning as titles?

All in favour of No Deal being the EU's fault say 'aye'.

Just catching up on events.
Martial law and prisoners on day release to fill labour shortages....bloody fantastic. How much more crazy can this get?

Apileofballyhoo

The Brexit Cupboard thread shines a light on how little thought most people are giving to the implications of No Deal
There are few people around these days who remember rationing or even the 3 day week so they just think "It couldn't happen here".

I've just entered into a 'heated debate' with someone who replied to a post on my friends sharing of the 900 jobs gone with the EMA saying it wasn't newsworthy...
He's completely convinced that we were entering a federalised Europe, talked about escaping fiscal control, something about Italy having its budget refused by the EU..that he knew he would be voting for a period of uncertainty/difficulty but that he hoped it would be worth it. Hoped!
I mentioned the NI border and that I'm angry that this abstract ideal of control is affecting people's lives, my husband is Irish, my father and his were both on the border on different sides, policing it back in the 80s/90s. Some people don't have the luxury of worrying about that as they are worried where their next meal is coming from and that worry will increase with riding prices, but apparently its all with it for control.
There's no point continuing to argue with him is there? They all are convinced they're right, it was all for the greater good.
He picked on me for using the words slim majority... That's what it bloody was, just over half is a slim majority and the rest of us are being held to ransom by their choices.

I said on the preppers thread that in a way I'm glad I had a poor WC very 1950s style upbringing. My parents were brought up on rations and always were frugal. Plus we had no money, there was a 3 day week, no heating. Prepping now reminds me of how they managed the home.

By contrast my DH thinks I'm mad, he had wealthy WC/MC baby boomer parents and they had fancy food, foreign holidays. We had a cheap caravan in factory shut down fortnight.

He has no concept of there not being food. Whereas I have a fear of no money and no food.

The coal miners strike and the way Thatcher dealt with it nearly broke my dad, even though our pit was already closed by then. He was redundant from his factory job for being a mouthy trade unionist. He was in his 40s and didn't know if he'd get another job. Luckily a new factory opened up and took him on.

I never take food, clothing, heating for granted. I was the kid in the jumble sale clothes and I never want my DS to be.

Sadly, my dad died after the referendum, again disgusted at Cowardly Cameron. He voted Leave because he believed it would give us more money to be spent on the NHS. It fitted his TU narrative of the little guys kicking the big guns where it hurt. I'm glad he never saw this shower of shite doing what they're doing now. He'd see it for what it is and be gutted he was taken in.

The referendum was (narrowly) won by promising that things would be better for ordinary people.
Would Leave have won if they said:

any benefits will be in 50 years
civil service say "it will be like preparing for a major war"
the govt will have to start its own ferry service to bring in essential meds & food
military reserves will be called up for a year and troops will be on standby to maintain order
the economy will probably lose 8% GDP the first year
the pound will crash and food prices will rise
major employers will pull out of the UK and new investment will go elsewhere in the EU
......

Is that a winning ticket ?
If Leavers look back, can they honestly say they voted expecting this to happen ?

PootlesBobbleHat

"Project Fear" is about what May's WA would bring, if there is No Deal and we enter the backstop

No Deal was never calculated before the ref, because it was considered so insane

Pootles 💐

Pootles yep :(

That my dc may experience what I did both distresses and enrages me.

DID SOMEONE SAY WA AMENDMENT FLOW CHART?

Yes, I can here you all shouting it really really loudly, as if you were cheering your favourite sports star.

Ahem.

Anyway, John Worth has another flow chart out.

You can view it here:
twitter.com/jonworth/status/1089601880420958208

He updates these daily, so you can see how events are progressing through the possible scenarios.

Exciting eh?!

I bet thats made your weekend.

yay! Flow chart!

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/27/uk-cannot-simply-trade-on-wto-terms-after-no-deal-brexit-say-experts?CMP=share_btn_tw
UK cannot simply trade on WTO terms after no-deal Brexit, say experts

UK may face seven-year wait for frictionless trade under WTO rules if it crashes out of EU

This is really cheerful.

I might have to start adding Anxiety Warnings to some articles at this rate.

Thank you for the

I don't think I can stock pile 7 years worth of food :(