Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

Thats whole communities. Screwed.

I wonder how long it would take for the country to go from what's acceptable now to what was acceptable pre WW2?

I assume that that's the aim of all this.

It's what the ERG want.

A return to the 1930s. The poor knowing their place. Feudal system.

It's really not a surprise to me.

ERG, so onomatopoeic

Richard Harrington, the business minister, has effectively challenged May to sack him by publicly applauding the Airbus statement.

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jan/24/brexit-latest-news-developments-may-union-leaders-airbus-says-it-could-close-factories-in-the-uk-in-the-event-of-no-deal-politics-live

Will she? I have never known such a mutinous and crumbling cabinet, but May seems to sail blithely on as though her deal has been approved, her party and the country are united and everyone is behind her. Oh, and that she can dance.

She didn't sack Boris.

This is just beyond parody

Kate McCann @KateEMcCann
BREAK: Airbus boss Katherine Bennett just told @SkyNewsBreak that the government: "Did say 'could you make sure you make clear the potential impact of a no deal' and we're happy to do that"

Asked if the Government put Airbus up to comments this morning she first says no, but then adds Airbus has provided ministers with "lots of information about the potential impacts" and then follows up by admitting Gov DID ask the company to "make clear" cost of no deal Brexit.

I'm feeling very eerrrrg today...

I want to fix everything and i can't...

Might bake biscuits as a consolation...

What a mess...

On the plus side, I'm looking forward to starting a new job with a European company. They're letting me work from here but I'll have some travelling to do. It's going to be tough with the kids but at least a welcome distraction from this shit show (and money coming in!).

How can she sack the business minister if the government authorised airbus to come clean about Brexit?

It doesn't sound from that, that it was Richard Harrington who told airbus they could do that.

Some one did. Who it was matters. Was it No 10? Was it the Treasury? Was it someone else?

DGR

True enough.

The thought occurs to me that Brexit will once day make a cracking quiz game. So many names, quotes and numbers to pose questions about. On the other hand, Brexiteers wouldn't be much cop at it, as they've consciously supressed any factual knowledge and conveniently forgotten any troublesome quotes from the past.

Q: How much was promised on the red bus to fund the NHS?
A: It was the fault of the EU.

Slightly under the radar, but elsewhere in Europe, things appear to be moving forward ... Greece and North Macedonia have sorted out their differences.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46971182

one bit which jumped out at me, was this:

The two countries also agree:

<span class="italic">"On the need to refrain from irredentism and revisionism in any form" - seen as dealing with Greek fears that the Macedonians might have designs on their territory</span>

<span class="italic">To tackle state propaganda and incitement and agree to set up an expert panel to consider an objective interpretation of history</span>

<span class="italic">"The terms 'Macedonia' and 'Macedonian' refer to a different historical context and cultural heritage" - and that one is Southern Slavic and not related to ancient Greece</span>

<span class="italic">The new Republic of North Macedonia will "review the status" of any public buildings or monuments that refer to ancient Greek history</span>

I think they are desperately trying to change public opinion now away from No Deal is better than a Bad Deal - leave supporters have suddenly remembered that slogan again, unfortunately for May.

I'm sure May would love the businesses to come out now and say no to No Deal, but she's gagged them from what I can tell and I fear it's too late to put the no deal genie back in the bottle.

Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
Per chats with several EU & EU27 officials: Extending Article 50 beyond EU elections/July would not be as straightforward as some seem to assume. There are not only legal questions (eg UK MEPs), but also political considerations, especially if no clear plan/timeframe

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
Am similarly cautioned. Tho same officials who acknowledge this, also say that if Leaders say 'get it done', then it gets done. (realise we are tying ourselves in knots here!)

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/24/right-tricked-rampant-inequality-lse-meritocracy-myth
How the right tricked people into supporting rampant inequality

Looking at surveys across 23 western countries since the 1980s, Dr Jonathan Mijs of the London School of Economics International Inequalities Institute monitors how, as countries become less equal, attitudes of the majority shift in the wrong direction.

People come to believe more strongly that their country is a meritocracy where hard work and talent take people to the top. They are less likely to think structural inequalities help or hinder people’s rises. The US, home of the American dream – the myth that everyone has an equal chance to rise from log cabin to White House – is the most unequal, yet 95% now firmly believe in meritocracy, fewer in structural injustice. The UK, Australia and New Zealand are not far behind, sharing this anglophone disease, a societal “body dysmorphia”: other European countries are less inclined to justify inequality, though the movement has been in that direction. This is the neoliberal triumph over hearts and minds.

The meritocracy myth comes with other tropes, especially placing the blame on the poor, with decreasing social empathy. Believing people sink through their own fault is the necessary adjunct for proving that the mega-wealthy got there by merit alone.

If this an accurate assessment and study, this leads only to fascism.

If this an accurate assessment and study, this leads only to fascism.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage.”

www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/5451872.Alexander_Fraser_Tytler

Tony Connelly @tconnellyRTE
Statement by the European Parliament Brexit Steering Group: without an “all-weather” backstop-insurance, the European Parliament will not give its consent to the Withdrawal Agreement.

Well if Murrison II is adopted and accepted by the HoC thats the WA screwed in a nutshell.

There is now a lot of incentive by some who don't want the WA under any circumstances to vote for Murrison II.

Worth mentioning, in the context of the US and fascism - a book I put on my book list above called ‘On Tyranny’ by Timothy Snyder.

It’s only short - but a reflection on what’s going on in the US right now, as informed by his work as a historian - particularly his work ‘ Bloodlands’ which is a comparison of Hitler and Stalin in the zone of Russian border, Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, Baltic states.

One quote I recall:

^”We are no wiser than the Europeans who saw democracy yield to fascism, Nazism, or communism in the last century. Our one advantage is that we might learn from their experience…”

"Tyranny" is a word that has more resonance in the US than UK. Possibly because the Declaration of Independence uses it (or "Tyrant") quite a lot (to make a point).

It's so worrying how loss of an industry can decimate an area. Redruth in Cornwall used to be the richest town in Britain. And ended up needing objective one funding from the EU. Now that's because the tin mining stopped. But it shows how a loss of natural resource or main employer can set an area off into decline.

At one point this area was a technological hub. Richard Murdoch, Richard Trevithick, Humphrey Davy. Safety fuse was invented here, gas lighting, all sorts of things. But when the mining went, it all went.

Quietrebel a bit late but web chat link here. V depressing conclusions .

Congratulations on your new job!

Jessica Elgot @jessicaelgot
Economist Roger Bootle speaking now. He says he is “fed up” with businesses talking about their supply chains as if preserving their businesses were the most important thing in the Brexit negotiations.

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
Economists have had enough of economics

@sproutingcorn
Thank you 😀

Tony Connelly @tconnellyRTE
Breaking: Taoiseach Leo Varadkar says in a No Deal scenario the UK wd have to agree to full regulatory and customs alignment in NI if it were to honour its obligations to the GFA and the peace process.

Varadkar added that the UK might struggle to negotiate free trade agreements elsewhere if the Irish border question remained unresolved in a No Deal scenario.

Speaking in Davos the Taoiseach said: “The United Kingdom would have a responsibility to abide by WTO rules and both the UK and Ireland would have responsibilities to honour the Good Friday Agreement and the peace process.

“So I think we would end up in a situation where EU and Ireland and the UK would have to come together, and in order to honour our commitment to the people of Ireland that there be no hard border, we would have to agree on full alignment on customs and regulations,

”...so after a period of chaos we would perhaps end up where we are now, with a very similar deal.

“In a No Deal scenario Ireland will still be in the single market, and will still be part of all those trade deals which come with being part of Europe, the trade deal with Japan, the trade deal with Canada, the trade deal with Korea, the trade deal with Singapore.

“In a No Deal scenario, the UK won’t have any trade deals with anyone, and I think it will be very difficult for them to conclude any trade deals with the question of the Irish border unresolved. Given we have a solution on the table already, let’s ratify that.”

Blunt, to the point and really illustrates how being outside a trade bloc works.