Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

Can't believe I'm saying this but "Go Leo!"

It's so worrying how loss of an industry can decimate an area.

There is a case to be made that such things should not be allowed to develop. After all, we aren't an anarchy - there are rules about everything (planning certainly). But that requires the sort of joined-up thinking that the UK isn't famous for.

(Ironically, when it wants to, the UK can become an exemplar. The London and Liverpool docklands ...)

There must be some study and observations about the fact that as you slide the dial away from the centre, things become more and more isolated, rather than interconnected. So you get the local council saving £1,000 a year by switching off streelamps, totally uncaring that the ambulance and police costs rise by £100,000 to cope with the extra accidents.

It's that disjointed thinking which drives the UKs non-transport strategy.

Can't believe I'm saying this but "Go Leo!"

Why can't you believe it ? Or have I missed something about him personally ?

From what little I know (mainly UK press reporting) he seems a pretty decent guy ?

Either way, it's an interesting klaxon sounding. And almost certainly pretty close to the mark.

Or, to put it another way, who'd deal with the UK, if it's got unresolved lack of border issues in NI ?

Leo may have just punctured the no deal dream.

@DGRossetti , I'm just a bit of an old sceptic generally about politicians. I save my hero worship for people like Michelle Obama.
But, to be honest, he's coming across pretty brilliantly . I'm not in Ireland (though a lot of my family and dh's family are) and so it's hard to judge based on "foreign policy" as it were.

Leo may have just punctured the no deal dream

It’s going to take more than that. I’m hoping this week is the week most Leavers finally admit that no deal is not better than a bad deal (or indeed anything). But some are so bloody stubborn.

Some No Deal idiots will be even more entrenched by hearing a half Indian gay Irish man telling them they are screwed.
But he has to say it for his own country and to help it try and recover from the inevitable shit storm that no Deal would vomit over from Ireland's nearest neighbour.

Want some good news?

I've just heard we have been successful in a funding bid.

I will now be able to run the lunch club this year, next and poss beyond!!

😀

That’s great news @Destiel

That’s great news (I still can’t get used to your name change).

Tragic you will be needed more than ever but great news

@Destiel that's great news. Well done. I bet a lot of effort went into that. Brilliant!

Fine Gael are Irish conservatives , and born out of the Irish Blueshirt movement (a totally incompetent facist movement in Ireland). They are defintely centre right, very much the party of the middle classes and much less republican than Fine Fail. I definitely couldn't see myself voting for them in Ireland.

But Leo, and I think particuarly Simon Coveney, are doing very well on foreign policy. There's a big push as well at the moment on opening more consultates worldwide and going for one of the UN rotating security council seats. International diplomacy is really being prioritised, it is not just for Brexit.

Interesting he picked Davos to send this message... As the jobs leave the UK, Salesforce have just starting building a new office for another 1,500 jobs in Dublin and Facebook have announced another 1,000 new jobs at their Dublin HQ.

It’s going to take more than that. I’m hoping this week is the week most Leavers finally admit that no deal is not better than a bad deal (or indeed anything). But some are so bloody stubborn.

It's not the gibbering loons on the no-deal threads here that matter (although it's amusing they think they do). It's more MPs who need to be gently spoon-fed all the real reasons why no-deal is such a disaster.

I agree @usuallydormant . I know a bit about the Blueshirts and liking Fine Gael makes me uneasy.
But liking Fianna Fáil makes me uneasy too.

At this point, who gives a shit about me feeling uneasy as long as someone is making sure Ireland isn't getting isolated from the E.U. for the UK's convenience.

I've just heard we have been successful in a funding bid.

Brilliant news @destiel! I admire your dedication

@RedToothBrush. Dear God, are we now quoting Opinion pieces by Polly Toynbee as fact on here?! Her latest diatribe doesn't really have anything to do with Brexit either, apart from her arrogant dismissal of 23/06/2016 as a moment of protest as "overdone."

Gosh Louise you sound rather angry today.

What are your ideas on the Irish border?

Not a huge fan of Polly Toynbee either but @RedToothBrush is doing sterling work pulling different voices together for other posters to read and discuss.

Angry? No not at all, just incredulous at people quoting opinion pieces from PT writing in the Guardian.

My ideas for the Irish Border?

Well my first idea is that if our parliamentarians back "Deal" i.e. the Withdrawal Agreement they should be voting on in around 1 week, then the problem of the border in Ireland does not arise.

My other view of it is, and this clearly going to be wildly over simplistic.... but as I understand it, HMG have no intention whatever of erecting border infrastructure in Northern Ireland. Assuming they are sincere in this (and I've no reason to doubt that) then a problem will arise if the EU or ROI choose to erect border infrastructure.

Should this happen (and I still think some form of deal will be voted through so that it doesn't), it seems pretty obvious to me who is responsible.

quoting Opinion pieces by Polly Toynbee as fact

I'm relatively new to these threads, but when a person is quoted on here the poster almost always references the original material, making it quick and easy for readers to check the source. It is absolutely transparent and should be admired, not criticised.

In addition "fact" is not the same thing as "something I agree with". So where a person is quoted and agreed with, that doesn't mean anyone is claiming it to be an indisputable fact.

Confession: I did wonder whether to post Toynbee, as believe it or not I don't particularly like her and think she spouts a lot of crap.

BUT

I try and make a point of posting things which I think have value. It doesn't necessarily mean I agree with them.

By value I mean something which is worthy of debate, scrutiny and a starting point for discussion to see if the point holds merit beyond the political position of the person saying it.

I do think that article is worth pondering. Its not merely Toynbee spouting off. The article is off the back of an LSE study which noted certain political patterns. I think this needs wider examination.

I think to understand the world properly you do need to be willing to accept that sometimes your political opposites really do have a valid point and you'd be wiser to listen to that than to dismiss the point, simply because you generally don't like their political opinion.

Just so long as those voices are all "Remainers" hey?... bit like that Mumsnet webchat thing today.

No, actually. Stuff from Leave voices is frequently posted here.

The trouble is that there is a large amount of it which doesn't really stand up well to scrutiny. Particularly stuff that comes from Leave leaning MPs.

If you would like to contribute anything from leave leaning voices you are more than welcome to. I'd like to see more well considered positions from leave voices.

I think to understand the world properly you do need to be willing to accept that sometimes your political opposites really do have a valid point and you'd be wiser to listen to that than to dismiss the point, simply because you generally don't like their political opinion.

+1

Which is why consensus and coalition are to be preferred over one side ramming it's version of the truth over it's detractors by by sheer weight of a flawed representational system.

But generally, it seems Remainers are more of that ilk ... there isn't a single Remainer on these threads that hasn't agreed with some of the criticisms of the EU Leavers have made.

What's the matter @LouiseCollins28 . Can't you read and assess and disagree with things you don't like?
Where I live it's all Leave Means Leave We Knew What We Were Voting For Brexit Means Brexit Red White and Blue Brexit No Deal is Better Than a Bad Deal Just Get On With It.
It's good to see that not everyone is like that.
And I hate Corbyn too. And will say so on here.

Just so long as those voices are all "Remainers" hey?

Well one would assume that posters who are pro-remain would (most likely) value or agree with opinions similar to their own. This may be because they are right in their opinions, or simply confirmation bias (which I hope everyone reading or trying to understand a topic would be aware exists and look out for).

RTB is not a reporter (afaik) and MN forums are not a media publication so there is no requirement for balance. However, those who are pro-leave / No Deal are more than welcome to post as well.