Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

Thanks red for thread

It's a crazy time. Went to see Westminster Green yesterday while we were down South purely to witness the media encampment (being a Sunday, of course it was empty but it helps to visualise the space when we see it on TV). Didn't take a picture of it, but I did take a picture on Westminster Bridge as ds (18) was childishly amused by the shadows - and they seem appropriate for the topic and for a place nat king

Plaice cat/mat king
Thanks Red.

I've been out of the country for a few days (the land of Fox News and the orange one) and it's been a pleasant relief from Brexit madness.

PMK.

Prettybird - Those shadows! 😂 I messaged a friend a picture of cock & balls topiary outside a hotel last summer, in a similar vein. If I hadn’t already deleted it, I would have shared it on this thread.

I'm also childishly amused.

.

Sky News has apparently obtained a slide on the government's analysis of a Worst Case Scenario, entitled Freight Traffic Contingency Assumptions

On the news, it reports one of the bullet points

• The reasonable worst case is that flow through the Short Straits is reduced to between 13% and 25% of current capacity for a period of between 3-6 months

I'm glad I've already started stockpiling

But it doesn't go into the 2nd point

• Following this initial period, trade flows will revert to a 'new normal' somewhere between 50 and 100%; which will last until significant changes are made to improve border arrangement such as automation those mythical technological solutions

It finishes with a final point which states

• A significant proportion of traders will not be ready on D1ND If traders arrive at the border inadequately documented then this will add delay and congestion

Ie implying it could be even worse than they project

I still can't get my head around the fact that the UK Government is still planning such suicidal actions, both for the country's economy and for its population (I was going to say "Our Leaders" but she is not "mine" nor is she a leader )

@prettybird
Holy fuck. That's insane.

We need to know what is going on sharpish. Surely new forms need creating, need briefing to people etc etc

I'm glad some of you have been prepping already. I hope there will be enough.

Damn. I was really hoping to avoid prepping. I’m moving in a few weeks’ time, and I’ve got enough stuff to pack without adding extra. Hey ho...

Ta red

Surely new forms need creating, need briefing to people etc etc

Also - the exporters from outside of the UK need to be ready, especially the UK ones. Manu companies only trade with the EU and have no experience in trading with a third. They need to apply for a customs registration in their company and basically hire people who know what they are doing.

In Belgium, where I am, 4 out of 5 companies that currently export to the UK are not ready for a no-deal Brexit on 29 march. So even if the UK were ready...

The Belgian government is spending money now already to hire 140 extra customs officers. That cost is going to already be passed on to the customers, regardless of the type of Brexit it will be or any delays there are.
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-shipping-panic-belgium-zeebrugge-plans-no-deal-tariffs-border-control-a8531146.html

May's plan was always to drive a wedge between EU countries and get some on the UK side to put pressure on the EU negotiating team. That was her strategy and it failed. Sometimes I think she is still trying to go for the same strategy still.
Also - if we can all see it (or the ridiculous chicken game), what makes people think that Barnier couldn't?

One man arrested, four released unconditionally in Derry courthouse blast investigation.

My mum noted today that Ryvita has disappeared from shops in her neck of the south Dublin woods.

PMK with a further Lewis Carroll adaption 💐
The time has come, the Walrus said,
To talk of many things:
Of squirrels - ships - indicative votes —
Of plaices, cats — and kings.

[ Sits in corner, rocking, reading poetry 📖]

Thanks again Red.
I don’t think there will be an election at all because neither business nor the unions would want to donate to campaigns run by Cons or Labour in their current incarnations. Also the impossibility as mentioned before of producing a manifesto.
Con manifesto:
Deep and something relationship blah blah moving forward to the future blah blah all working together blah blah fairness blah blah pie in the sky blah blah no customs union
Lab manifesto:
The same but with comprehensive customs union
All unachievable

Good morning Lonely!

The time has come, the Walrus said,
To talk of many things:
Of squirrels - ships - indicative votes —
Of plaices, cats — and kings.

❤️ this

Plaice cat king

Thank you @RedToothBrush and, @umpteennamechanges what a beauty!

She is beautiful....and also thick as mince

Umpteen that is a prize winning pla(i)ce cat.

On a less comforting note I just saw two petitions on Change. Org gaining momentum really fast. They were petitions to deselect Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve. They were at about 43,000 and 23,000 votes but growing really fast.

You see that's not a sign of disinterested one time voters protesting against austerity is it? Can Russian bots sign petitions or are there that many far right gammons with lobotomies with the ability to use technology ?

I forgot in the manifestos
will of the people
deliver Brexit
more blah blah blah
Lab:
nationalise railways
Con:
no nationalisation

Morning Born !