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Brexit

Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/01/2019 23:05

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

OP posts:
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umpteennamechanges · 22/01/2019 06:16

Re: the de-selection petitions

I know I have been harping on about it for the last couple of threads but there is a huge movement amongst Leavers to demand no-deal. They are becoming very entrenched in this as the only acceptable position.

The WA is seen as BINO.

Listen to LBC for a couple of hours and 90% of the callers are no dealers. They have taken May's 'no deal is better than a bad deal', what they want is 'the will of the people' and anything other than no deal 'is not what they voted for'.

The majority of Leavers I know are the same.

It's easy to be in a MN bubble (I've been surprised to say the least) but MN is very much not representative on Brexit.

Mistigri · 22/01/2019 06:17

Ie implying it could be even worse than they project

As I understand it this worst case scenario is also based on the legal minimum of checks on the French side. Which makes cynical people like me wonder whether there is any other realistic scenario at all.

Mistigri · 22/01/2019 06:18

MN is very much not representative on Brexit.

Yes. Mothers have the most to lose.

This is why I spend a bit of time every day debunking the shite posted on some other threads.

borntobequiet · 22/01/2019 06:22

IMF representative on Today a few min ago so abt 6:15 with figures for impact of Brexit on EU/UK, unsurprisingly far worse on UK.
I should get dressed and go to work...

ThereWillBeAdequateFood · 22/01/2019 06:23

Place marking. Took a day off from Brexit yesterday. Has reality hit the fan yet?

mathanxiety · 22/01/2019 06:28

www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46951942
'Brexit: David Cameron warned by Donald Tusk over 'stupid referendum''

"European Council President Donald Tusk told David Cameron to "get real" over his "stupid referendum" before the 2016 Brexit vote, a BBC documentary reveals.

Mr Tusk tells the three-part show that he warned the then prime minister there was no "appetite for revolution in Europe" and he "could lose everything".

He claims that Mr Cameron, who did not take part in the programme, felt "there was no risk of a referendum" happening.

Looks like an interesting series.

DGRossetti · 22/01/2019 06:39

.

bellinisurge · 22/01/2019 06:42

My "don't worry, dh, Parliament will stop no Deal" has stopped working. He doesn't believe it any more. Luckily, we have good preps in the house. I hope for the best and prepare for the worst.
It baffles me how people think we are going to be in a strong negotiating position after a No Deal. It's like the Monty Python knight losing his limbs bit by bit . 'Tis, but a scratch'.
Let's hope today brings better news.

BrieAndOatcakes · 22/01/2019 06:59

PMK

Mistigri · 22/01/2019 07:04

I'm going to put this here too - a thread from a women's group about the vulnerable clients they helped with settled status applications. Basically, for vulnerable people, this is going to be an absolute shitshow

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1087409600163389441.html

MangoSplit · 22/01/2019 07:05

Place marking

Whatsnewwithyou · 22/01/2019 07:07

.

Buteo · 22/01/2019 07:07

.

Somerville · 22/01/2019 07:21

At least four separate hijacked vehicles in Derry now over past twenty four hours. A white van, Post Office van, Asda van and bus. Two in Creggan, other two in Galliagh.

Mistigri · 22/01/2019 07:30

Somerville - it's very concerning. It does seem that it's a ramping up of activity, not a start of activity - was just reading a twitter thread cataloguing terrorist attacks over the last year or so and it wasn't a short one! But bombs and multiple hijackings in a 2 day period is clearly a big increase in activity by people who have been emboldened by government rhetoric on Ireland.

Motheroffourdragons · 22/01/2019 07:38

This reply has been deleted

This has been deleted by MNHQ to protect the privacy of the user.

Violetparis · 22/01/2019 07:43

Thank you Red and all the others who contribute to this thread.

Holidayshopping · 22/01/2019 07:53

It’s all such a mess-I can’t actually see any solution where any number of people will be pleased.

QueenieInFrance · 22/01/2019 07:53

PMK

IrenetheQuaint · 22/01/2019 07:53

Thanks Red!

Brew
Mrsr8 · 22/01/2019 07:55

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

QuentinWinters · 22/01/2019 08:00

I've noticed the PM and all the news outlets insisting on saying Londonderry. Is that usual? I was wondering if it was some kind of demand from the DUP

Fucking Brexit. My heart goes out to everyone in NI. Leavers who think this is acceptable collateral damage are the pits.

SusanWalker · 22/01/2019 08:01

It's all going to be shit isn't it. I think no deal will happen just because no one will compromise and because TM and JC hate each other so much that I don't think they'll ever move.

TM needs to pivot to at least a CU and call Corbyns bluff. He said that's what they want them vote for it. But I expect there will be something else then that's not good enough, like IDS saying it's not just the backstop but also the money and ECJ oversight.

borntobequiet · 22/01/2019 08:04

I've noticed the BBC now saying Londonderry rather that the (admittedly clunky) Derry/Londonderry. In fact I emailed the today prog about it some months ago. Might do so again.

borntobequiet · 22/01/2019 08:05

Sorry meant to say I too have noticed - agreeing with Quentin.