Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

Mistigri People locally are describing it as feeling like a serious and organised escalation in activity. Though I’ve also spoken to someone who thinks it’s a Brit set up as too organised for New IRA. (I disagree, though I understand their suspicion, because there is a long history of set ups. This lack of trust is at the heart of the problem, really.)

PMK

Just to repeat this plea from whatsnewwithyou as I've already used up my question ranting
'Please can people comment on the Anna Soubry we chat to ask her why she isnt backing the Labour amendment? I have used up my comment already. www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnet_live_events/3485256-Webchat-with-Anna-Soubry-on-Brexit-and-beyond-Tuesday-22-January-at-10-30am?msgid=84324112#84324112

I think she needs support on that thread as the leavers are giving her a hammering but still...why won't she back it???'

I looked up the BBC editorial guidelines yesterday - they are meant to call it L’derry on first mention and thereafter Derry. Rather than getting their tongue around the whole thing on every mention.
The PSNI though say Derry/L’derry.
I know I’m not the only person from Derry in this thread. Who else is, and who hears it called L’derry by locals? I never do, only by Loyalists on the TV. But mostly I know other Catholics - all my Protestant-from-Derry friends are people I met in England which I suppose might squew things?

But anyway, 75% of Derry was Catholic in 2011, so it will be an even higher proportion now. Whilst I totally support PSNI calling it Derry/L’derry because everyone needs to feel represented by those police officers, unlike the bad old days, I don’t know why politicians can’t accept the name used by the vast majority of residents. I thought the will of the people was the be all and end all for our political class??

Sorry, what’s WA and BINO?

Withdrawal Agreement and Brexit In Name Only

Thanks for the new thread.

Basically, for vulnerable people, this is going to be an absolute shitshow

I wonder what consideration was put into the A50 bill for the disabled as per the law ? Presumably somewhere buried in the text there's a section where they've done the required impact analysis on the disabled ? Am I hearing a faint bell ringing that they didn't and somewhere there's an action ? (Goes off to google ...)

Plaice Mat King

The only reason that Anna Soubry and the other Tories aren't backing the Labour amendment is that they are putting the Tory party before country.

Place mark squirrel

My red squirrels are European, and annoyingly noisy!

I wonder what consideration was put into the A50 bill for the disabled as per the law ? Presumably somewhere buried in the text there's a section where they've done the required impact analysis on the disabled ? Am I hearing a faint bell ringing that they didn't and somewhere there's an action ? (Goes off to google ...)

I doubt that A50 makes specific reference to this because it would be covered by the HRA and equality legislation.

If there is anyone who hasn't used up their Soubry question it would be good to ask something about how the rights of vulnerable European citizens will be protected. So far, that women's group thread suggests that their vulnerable clients were significantly more likely than other applicants to experience delays or a refusal of settled status (they were given pre-settled which is not the same). Elsewhere I have read that there have been issues for looked after children without passports.

Thanks ballyhoo!

Oh goodness - feel I need to start prepping on maternity leave and going down to no smp - luckily I have kit days. Dh still thinks it’s a stupid idea but I do the good shop

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@Wait4nothing there are loads of non panicky threads on getting extras in for Brexit. Here's one. Look on the Preppers topic for tips. Actual Preppers like me will help you with Brexit focussed shortcuts. You don't need to Become a Prepper to prep for Brexit.
To be surprised that some friends are buying extra food because of Brexit? part 2 http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/amiibeingunreasonable/3479764-To-be-surprised-that-some-friends-are-buying-extra-food-because-of-Brexit-part-2

If there is anyone who hasn't used up their Soubry question it would be good to ask something about how the rights of vulnerable European citizens will be protected.

A better question is how the rights of all vulnerable people will be affected. Unless having a UK passport is some sort of magic talisman ?

As we've seen with UC - women are always disproportionately affected by changes in benefits legislation.

Dear All thank you so much for the lovely messages on Saturday I took Cats advice , stayed away and went for a beach walk. Health hasn’t changed much, but I do have a date at hosp for Friday week re tongue.
For my sanity I may dip in and out occasionally for the rest of the week to lurk but will try not to post to preserve my sanity.

God knows where we will be by next Tuesday.

Today I need to go to Waterstones and collect my “30 year Best of Matt” book I ordrered. I like Matt despite him working for the Torygraph. I have every yearly compilation of his cartoons since 1991, the first edition, it’s a bit of a family tradition at Xmas now. Always the last present to open.
I suspect many of the cartons will be repeated from years gone by but there may be new ones.

Thanks again for these threads especially to Red and the other regular posters.

Thanks Red.

I was feeling quite down cast about No deal, someone pointed me in the direction of the Cuba response to a similar situation. I haven't checked if this is accurate you need to do that, it gives hope, if plan B or C isn't voted through.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=99WCn_nFSAY

A better question is how the rights of all vulnerable people will be affected. Unless having a UK passport is some sort of magic talisman ?

That's true - and it's a tricky one for Soubry - but the thread is in the Brexit section and I think it is good on these occasions to ask specific questions rather than trying to catch people out. EU citizens are at risk in ways that British citizens are not.

PMK with thanks, Red.

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Gosh, that New Yorker article in pulling no punches. But, but, but... is there not a wonderful shared history between the former colonies and GB? Of fondness and goodwill? Those countries that make up the Commonwealth.

Ireland was cynically partitioned to ensure that Protestant settlers outnumber native Catholics in one part of the country. The division provoked decades of violence and consumed thousands of lives. It was partly healed in 1998, when a peace agreement removed the need for security checks along the British-imposed partition line.

Someone said that NI was central to Brexit. This article below teases that out as more defining Brexit.

Those statements of how the backstop is unacceptable and there is an insinuation the DUP represent the de facto views of people in NI.

Sorry but the majority in NI supported the GFA; the DUP never accepted it. NI voted Remain and supports the backstop. The DUP is in a minority on both. MPs concerned about the precious Union ought think about how all this looks to... the majority of people in Northern Ireland

twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1087114672174714885

But what does it matter to the people of Britain if the people of NI want to protect their children from the violence that destroyed lives? Even on these threads, people have said if they don't have a special deal why should NI get one. With all due respect, the consequences for people in NI are a little more serious.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/21/brexit-northern-ireland-westminster-dup

What, today, is the point of Northern Ireland? Built for perpetual war to keep the British in Ireland,.....

Ironically, the communal institutions bequeathed by Good Friday prolong sectarian allegiances, running Stormont, the Northern Irish assembly, on the principle of communal power-sharing.

Hence the Democratic Unionist Party’s ability to stalemate the government.

Prime Minister May formed a coalition with the D.U.P. after losing her parliamentary majority in last year’s snap election. In exchange for keeping her in office, she gave the hard-line Unionists veto power over Brexit negotiations. The D.U.P., which has a history of ties to gunrunning and paramilitarism, has never been easy to deal with. Its leadership is based in the Free Presbyterian Church, the fundamentalist sect founded in 1951 by the former D.U.P. leader Ian Paisley. ........

There, the D.U.P. draws a “blood red” line. That, it says, mortally threatens the Union.

www.nytimes.com/2018/11/02/opinion/northern-ireland-brexit-unionism.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

Very hard hitting articles from the the NY. No need for the DUP to just be one of a plurality in the NI Assembly when they are kingmaker in Westminster. And who have given them that role of the most favoured nephew?