Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

Laughing at "Red squirrels are British", Red

Naughty squirrel has no respect for borders. Traitor and Globalist!

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_squirrel#/media/File:Sciurus_vulgaris_habitat.png

Thanks for the article, Cailleach. NI is a defining issue of Brexit, and yet even Anna Soubry didn’t respond to q’s about Derry in webchat. People’s Vote would be awful for NI, in case no-deal got onto the ballot, but I didn’t even mention that, just asked if she’d visiting the city closest to the ‘border’ and if she’s talking to the representatives of the majority because that is the only way to face down the extremist recruitment.
I don’t think People’s Vote fans want to face up to what is happening in derry. Yet again, we need Americans to speak up for us. (At least they’re doing it.)

Excellent article on NI/Ireland - thanks Cailleach.

even Anna Soubry didn’t respond to q’s about Derry in webchat.

She's a Home Counties MP who has no government experience of NI, that's not unreasonable tbh. Soubry has done more than most to try to prevent Brexit fucking up NI.

Something I’m mulling over and would appreciate posters’ views - is whether May can tweak the WA enough to put it to the house again, but not enough for the changes to be blocked by the EU (ie no change to the backstop), for it to be voted through a second time?

Comments from the Tory rebels, I quoted at the end of the previous thread, indicate they are panicking about the Remainer efforts in the Commons and considering supporting the WA in preference to No Brexit.

She's a Home Counties MP who has no government experience of NI, that's not unreasonable tbh. Soubry has done more than most to try to prevent Brexit fucking up NI.

She wasn’t on here for a web chat with her constituents, she was here as a prominent remainer to promote her People’s Vote Cross party plan. Given that...
1/ she personally voted down the WA which would have protected NI and was supported by the majority in NI
2/Derry is the city with the most to lose from no-deal which a PV would risk
3/ There was a car bomb and 4+ organised hijackings at gun point in the past 48 hours, in what many knowledgable people believe could be the unfortunately start of a new campaign
Then the People’s Vote centrists are naive not to be reaching out to the people of Derry and factoring them into their plan. When even people like me are starting to feel scared by ramifications of PV then it shows something of the strength of feeling about it.

whether May can tweak the WA enough to put it to the house again, but not enough for the changes to be blocked by the EU (ie no change to the backstop), for it to be voted through a second time?
I don’t think she can tweak it much at all. Not in any material sense. It’s more a case of her ERG rebels getting scared, as you say, by cross party Remainer efforts to block no deal. That, in conjunction with some nice words that don’t mean anything about backstop (to stop them losing too much face) might be enough? Not for the DUP, though, IMO. I’d be very surprised if they voted for the WA so she’ll need to find some Labour votes.

That's sort of raising a question that's been niggling at me now you mention it Tatiana. If May can only bring the WA back to the house with real changes than what happens if she doesn't get them? Presumably there shouldn't be another vote in those circumstances. However if cabinet push and Bercow has to refuse to allow the second vote they are going to hold him personally responsible for blocking a deal.

I'm really glad I'm not speaker of the house right now.

Anna Soubry is from a working class town (Worksop) in Nottinghamshire, and her constituency is Broxtowe (its very, very mixed).

Off to read the webchat now.

@bellinisurge
Thanks - I’ve had a little read and I’m going to do 3 days worth of supplies - we tend to have a well stocked freezer and kitchen cupboards but think if menu plan for 3 days then we’ve got it - I’m going to keep it away from the kitchen so it doesn’t get used up and record the earliest use by. I’ve also included Day to day stuff (nappies, toilet roll, toothpaste, san pro) and will keep that with it for now.

It will be good to have for severe weather anyway (I never get to my last pack of nappies for that reason!)

Ds is on allergy formula so I’m requesting prescriptions at earliest possible date so a small stockpile there (he’s weaning now too so hopefully).

Thanks for the help

It’s more a case of her ERG rebels getting scared, as you say, by cross party Remainer efforts to block no deal. That, in conjunction with some nice words that don’t mean anything about backstop (to stop them losing too much face) might be enough?

This is my fear.

You're welcome @Wait4nothing .

I didn’t see the question about Derry but she did answer a question about the Irish border. Without double checking I think she said it would require CU+SM and that’s basically remaining and that she would prefer to remain anyway.

From a prepping point of view, what (if anything) is being done for food for hospitals, care homes, prisons, schools etc etc? I can’t imagine they have much in reserve for food shortages?

Why a fear, Tatiana? I get that WA isn’t as good as remaining in UK, so I have sympathy for those opposing it whose first priority is their own part of the UK (or their rights abroad) rather than NI, but it’s a hell of a lot better than no deal. That’s what makes me fearful, whether it came about in March or as a result of PV for it. Not the WA, which leaves much to play for in fighting for a future relationship that is closer than not.

Because the WA is hard Brexit and we may end up with No Deal anyway. That’s where the hedabangers want to take us. A harder right leader will replace TM. The Tories will get on with negotiating an FTA which cannot lead to frictionless trade, thus we will be stuck in the backstop for years, arguing about it, unless we ditch NI. JIT business will use transition to get out, at great financial cost.

It will leave this country in limbo for 10+ years while sucessive U.K. governments try to effect their version of Brexit and fail because there is not sufficient support for any of them.

No Deal is the one thing there is enough opposition in Parliament to avert. May specifically wants you and MPs to be frightened enough of No Deal to support the WA.

what (if anything) is being done for food for hospitals, care homes, prisons, schools etc etc?

Nothing has even been mentioned in my school about Brexit. Don't know about the others, but afaik their food deliveries will be daily so they won't have the storage capacity (or money, or perhaps inclination) to stock up.

NI is one of those subjects that you should not delve into unless you have truly learned the history of the last 1000 years from an 'outsider's' point of view, meaning not being English/British OR Irish.
I would almost suggest negotiators should be Scandinavian or other experienced historian/negotiator.
For that reason Anna was wise not to attempt to answer anything in this regard.

Then the People’s Vote centrists are naive not to be reaching out to the people of Derry and factoring them into their plan. When even people like me are starting to feel scared by ramifications of PV then it shows something of the strength of feeling about it.

That's a fair point, but I still think that it would be wrong to give answers (that could be taken to be authoritative because from an MP) on a subject that one has to suspect she isn't an expert in. I was quite impressed, I thought that give the horrible format which is totally unsuited to Q&As she came over as sincere and ready to engage.

Place marking with the reminder that

all of the import export forms already exist
that bit will be fine
slow, but fine
and a lot of the old clearance clerks in East Kent are still around - in their 50's and 60's but ready to earn a packet

Unless I missed it she didn't answer my question about the British in Europe getting a referendum vote, but I accept that her main aim is to get a referendum and she won't be responsible for decisions about the franchise.

Oh rubbish leClerc. If people aren't talking about things then they aren't thinking about them. And if something is untouchable and undiscussable then it does not result in it being dealt with better. Much better to air things and impart information about them and encourage discourse. Things like Paddy Kielty's documentary, and Derry girls TV show were great for initating thought and conversations about the history of NI.

What I asked Soubry was if she had been in Derry, and whether she was talking to the people who represent the majority in NI. Because they are fucking scared of no deal going onto a PV ballot, partly in case it wins but even the act of it being written down on a ballot would be a massive kick in the balls for the GFA and encourage the extremists. And we are not being represented locally at the moment, primarily because of her parties deal with the DUP which disincentivised them from returning to Stormont - all Tory MP's should be learning the ramifications of that before they next vote that they have confidence in their fucking government.

a lot of the old clearance clerks in East Kent are still around

It's an ill wind, etc.

My first ever job was a few weeks as a temp at a Heathrow customs agent, sadly I can barely remember anything about it, but I am sure that in this brave new Brexit world that makes me an expert and I could sell my consultancy services to someone.