Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
EXC: Spain uses EU #brexit no deal legislation to press claim for “decolonisation” of #Gibraltar - my latest.

(Or, what happens when you give up your seat at the table. Lesson no 1 of 1,000)

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/23/spain-uses-eu-no-deal-brexit-plans-push-claims-decolonisation/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Also

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
So @JacobReesMogg says "as long as the backstop is there, I will not vote for the deal"

So when does a backstop not become a backstop? When time-limited? Or with an exit clause?

Would JRM then accept it "as no longer a backstop"

Some very slippery language around today

The word here since December is that the EU would extend for any request that had a vaguely reasonable UK plan for what it intended to do with the time

Also that some EU leaders would VETO extension if the UK intention was just to demand better terms

• such as dumping Ireland - rather than new negotiations for the future framework based on the UK dropping red lines usch as FOM & ECJ.

imo, the EU would extend to at least 1 July even if the UK request quietly said unofficially that it was going to be No Deal unless the backstop goes,
to allow both sides desperately needed time for intensive No Deal prepping^

May could justify this as "Managed No Deal" - which it wouldn't be

So far, the EU is prepared to offer any reassuring words that would help,
but NO legally binding changes to weaken the backstop

So @JacobReesMogg says "as long as the backstop is there, I will not vote for the deal"

Except JRM is one man, one vote. Since the current whirlwind of intrigue appears to see splits everywhere, what makes the ERG immune (unless it's brute stupidity) ?

On this prorogue business. Am I correct in reading it as the queen could block the amendment on the suggestion of the council but doesn't actually have to? Imagine if we get to a point where the queen refuses to block the amendment and all the brexiteers are shouting that she is a traitor. I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry sometimes.

The Queen is very carefully keeping the fuck out of it.
Her Christmas speech very clearly told everyone to work it out among themselves.
The last time she made her views known, to my recollection, was dropping hints that Thatcher was out of order making the police do her bidding at Orgreave.

Catching up - going back to the preference of May to 'honour' the will/vote of the 3mil voters who have never voted before (and let's face it after this are unlikely to ever vote again) and adding it to the revelation that anyone with a finger on democracy and politics is turning away from the Tories...do we not think this may be a machiavellian plan to actually make people tune out of politics altogether? It's worked a charm on leavers (fingers firmly in ears) and the fact that these threads are more on the pulse than media and news programmes suggests the same nationally even with remainers. If this goes on for another decade (inevitable with negotiations etc) the government du jour has shown the lengths it can go to with no one batting an eye. We thought austerity was bad...

I used the link upthread with the 72 times we didn't get our own way in EU on leaver friend today. She ignored the content and focused on what unpatriotic horrible man had dared to write it. Plus ca change.

We also have to judge houses on book space - love your idea Somerville!

My favourites include Wolf Hall and Bring up the Bodies (Hilary Mantel), any of the works of Cicero or Tacitus, Feed my Dear Dogs (Emma Richler) and lots of the books already mentioned (could carry on this list for ages!)

Brexit related: Rule Britannia (Daphne du Maurier) and The Guernsey Literary and Potato Peel Pie Society (Mary Ann Schaffer) for the value of companionship and literature in difficult circumstances!

Also any Agatha Christie and PG Wodehouse for a flight from reality!

I've already posited that if the Queen were to even hint at not being behind Brexit, there would be mobs outside Buckingham Palace. Which rather punctures the vision of Brexit being wrapped in the Union Jack. (Union Jackoff, more like, as a US chum said ....)

However, it may be that JRM is behind the times (I know, who'd have thought ?). In a rare display of being education and relevant there was a piece on the BBC last week noting that the FTPA changed everything and that there would be quite a lot of discussion, debate and advice needed on how the Queens factored into the New World Order.

As I admitted before - and happily admit again - I was horribly wrong and pigheaded about the FTPA, but an awful lot of the warnings made at the time (zombie government) have crystallised into reality.

If there is any doubt or discussion about what the Queen can -and cannot - do, this may not be the calm, measured environment needed to make decisions.

For myself, I think the Queen dropped a humongous bollock at Xmas, being filmed in front of (what looked like) a solid gold piano. Hardly a good message at any time, but in the midst of austerity, it's hard not to interpret it as a statement which rhymes with "cough".

I've been out since lunch and catching up but just wondered why there are no questions for Catherine Barnard, Anand Menon , Jonathon Portes on that thread ?

Somerville - I might have to move houses just so that I can have a double sided hidden door bookcase!

I don't understand what benefit JRM thinks that prerogation would bring?

Parliamentary business would be brought to a close. It's obvious that the number of bills that the business managers would be able to agree to carry forward would be pretty much nil. All the legislative work done so far on Brexit would dissolve. There would be even fewer sitting days left than we already have, for Parliament to discuss the optimum way forward. Cooper, Boles and anyone else could bring forward the same amendments to whatever new Brexit bill is presented in the new session. HMQ would have to find time for a new State Opening - and who really has the appetite for that, with all the rigmarole, the cost, the security headaches it brings, right now?

In one fell swoop, those votes who aren't already turned off by what is happening (or not happening) in Parliament would be completely alienated by such a move

Speaking of her Maj

There would be even fewer sitting days left than we already have, for Parliament to discuss the optimum way forward - isn't this why he is doing it? He wants us dropping out on 29th March to keep his off shore accounts?

I'm gonna bake a cake....I'm thinking carrot but I'm undecided.

Or beetroot in chocolate cake

Ever since Cameron used her Madge to back up his odious self, she's become fair game, I'm afraid.

Returning to prorogation (yes, it's an odd word, isn't it ?) going waaaaaaaaay back when, on these threads (it may have been RTB) it was noted that because May had decided to create a single parliamentary session to span March 29th, there could be some problems should a bill fail as it could not be re-presented in the same parliamentary session. Not sure if that has any bearing on the present situation ?

Or beetroot in chocolate cake

I had some vegan chocolate cake with beetroot in a couple of months ago, it was really nice and not at all what I expected. Not worth the £3.50 I paid for a slice though. £3.50! I only bought it because I was too embarrassed to say "uh no thanks that's too much" when she told me the price after bagging it up.

How did Cameron use her Madge?

How did Cameron use her Madge?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/28/david-cameron-sorry-queen-purred

In Brendas defence, she's no spring chicken, and it's entirely possible she had a brief lapse of judgement. But sends a similar message as the gold piano to some of her subjects.

Or courgette cake.....

He didn't use her. He was a dick and violated Sovereign/PM confidentiality. She did nothing wrong. Hardly odd news that she wanted to retain the integrity of the UK.

As for the piano. We have a monarchy. There's stuff in their homes. She's comparatively modest compared to some of the flash bastards around.