Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

As for the piano. We have a monarchy. There's stuff in their homes. She's comparatively modest compared to some of the flash bastards around.

Undoubtedly and unarguably true . But it suggested (to me) an uncharacteristic error of judgement - possibly by an advisor, but still a bit jarring. At least speaking for myself.

Hardly odd news that she wanted to retain the integrity of the UK.

begging the question what's the plan now, then ?

As an aside, I saw an interesting comment earlier that it would be deeply ironic if it was English nationalism that resulted in an independent Scotland.

I've said this before but I am genuinely and at the insistence of the DUP and ERG that the back-stop be time limited .

Given that it's effectively an insurance policy, don't they see that the more that they rail at against it, the more that they demonstrate why it is needed and why there is no way that it can be time limited??????

Do we think things are softening up as the BBC insinuate?

@prettybird

Don't knock the ERG and DUP. I've just trousered a few quid selling them my "never claim" car insurance policy. They were knocked out at how cheap it was.

What I find amusing (these days. you have to take it where you find it) is that the backstops existence - and nature - have been predicated upon the old French proverb of "Never trusting an Englishman". It's inconceivable that the EU hasn't been aware of the nature of the debate and worked out that the UK would happily wheedle out of anything that wasn't legally binding.

I'm reminded of an incident in a previous role where a partner was required to supply a written signed form in order to avail themselves of the service we provided. They spent over a month trying every trick in the book before we got it (they went under very shortly afterwards).

As my boss noted, if we'd had let them on without the form, (a) they had no incentive to then send it, and (b) we would then be at risk of legal action ...

The absolute bottom line is the backstop is needed because the UKs reputation doesn't count for much. Something the former residents of Diego Garcia would happily attest to.

I would say her Madge's plan , as it has always been, is to keep out of it and let the politicians sort it out. Or fail to sort it out.
The piano frankly is way down the list of things I don't like.

I do think that if we crash out with no deal then Scotland would recover quicker and better if not shackled to England.

The Uk (Brexiteers- mainly English) has done so much damage to iteself that even if we remain businesses are no longer going to consider us a good place to invest.

Prettybird, Michel Barnier was quoted as saying today limiting it would be like having insurance for your house for 5 years only and having a problem in the 6th year.

I really don't understand the problem.

And I don’t even support Scottish independence!!

Indeed DGR - I should save the bruises on my forehead from knocking my head against the brick wall

I really should know better and stop looking for logic and instead recognise that it's all about the feelz Innit

The Irish Border@BorderIrish

Jean says to me the other day,

“well, Border, if you lived in the flat next door to a pyromaniac, wouldn’t you put in a good sprinkler system as a backstop?”

The problem with living next door to a nasty pyromaniac who keps insisting you only get an insurance policy for 5 years ....
is you just KNOW he's going to set fire to your house in year 6 !

More horror stories for real people.

David Henig
‏****@DavidHenigUK

Checking something on which I can find little information - business travel between the UK and EU in the event of no-deal Brexit - am I right in thinking that many will require business visas? Visa-waiver won't apply to 'paid work'. Thanks...

Andrew Jones
‏***@AlquistARJ*

You will need a Schengen Visa to travel (takes 2 months) and an “EU Blue Card” work permit (takes 9 months, and requires at least a degree). 40,000 mainly high-tech workers will have no job in 65 days...including me. Thanks!

David Henig
‏****@DavidHenigUK

Replying to @AlquistARJ
Thanks, and sorry, why many of us do not want to see no-deal under any circumstances

Andrew Jones

Replying to @DavidHenigUK
I know. I’ve written to every MP and MEP expressing my concern that 1000’s of small high tech business will be destroyed in 2 months. Their response (well 1 or 2 who replied)...”we are aware if the problem”. 40,000 good jobs will be sacrificed for stopping inward FOM. Unreal!

Andrew Jones
‏***@AlquistARJ*

Replying to @DavidHenigUK
I run a high tech business but don’t have a degree. This makes getting a EU Blue Card almost impossible. Also the cards must be applied for by an EU company who must prove EU Labour cannot do the job. And you can’t start process until we leave.

I haven't posted on these threads before, but have been following them for ages. I am in awe of the knowledge and analysis of the current shitstorm that is about to hit our country.

Anyway, I've just seen this posted on Twitter

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-already-been-cancelled-heres-13896286

Is it too much to hope that it could be true?!

This thread is worth a (depressing) read.

twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1087666286648283136?s=09

Here are 180 factual, fully-sourced examples of the impact Brexit is already having on the UK. Jobs going, investment drying up, companies moving assets to the EU, or redomiciling. All happening as Government burns through £billions chasing a no deal Brexit it doesn't have to.

mother It depends on whether your DH is registered as resident - e.g. paying most income tax - in an E27 country or UK.
Also, whether he is self-employed / employed by an E27 / Uk registered business

If he has an E27 employer, they should be able to get a work visa for him without problems wherever he is resident.

Also, if he is a UK resident, his travel within the EU should be covered by the new EU ESTA-type visa which he can apply for

If your car is now UK registered, you can ask your insurance company about Green Cards or other insurance they offer post-Brexit .... assuming they've planned this !
If not, public transport & taxis / car hire when he arrives in the EU ?

But he will need to do a lot of advance phoning here & Belgium (iirc ?) to be sure he has all the necessary documentation in time.

It's a lot simpler for those expats who are simply resident and stay put, which fortunately is most of us.

All E27 countries should be rolling out their plans soon about how UK expats can register to stay either longterm, or via renewable 5-year permits.

lurky Please let that be true .... but I really don't believe it

Just caught tail end of an interview on radio 4 where someone said that TM could shut down Parliament if any threats via amendments looked like Parliament would take over from government. Crikey! TM may just do that! What then?

Apparently she could do that if she felt remainers could win and stop brexit?

Anyone think TM capable of shutting Parliament down? And can she actually do that?

@jessicaelgot
Economist Roger Bootle speaking now. He says he is “fed up” with businesses talking about their supply chains as if preserving their businesses were the most important thing in the Brexit negotiations.

Really? I mean really? An economist that thinks businesses aren’t important after all

sos No, I don't think the govt could close Parliament
Appeals to the law courts would force its reopening within a week,

.... but that is another reason why the HoC can't leave their masterplan for the last few days - a few days shutdown looks feasible

JRM may yearn for mediaeval times when the British monarch could close down the bolshy parliament

but May only yearns for the 1950s when Britain was 99% homogeneous - and Parliament was still independent,
so imo she wouldn't dare go there

and HM QEII lives more in the 21st century than most of her MPs and half of her subjects

• that is the only kind of situation when she would probably intervene and refuse assent.