Meet the Other Phone. A phone that grows with your child.

Meet the Other Phone.
A phone that grows with your child.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

991 replies

RedToothBrush · 21/01/2019 23:05

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
29
Villainess · 23/01/2019 13:52

'Anne of Green Gables is my most re-read book (along with all the sequels). It’s my go-to comfort read'

Me too. If the world goes to shit and I’m stuck in a bunker for months jealously guarding my 100 tins of food and 50 bottles of wine I will be seeking refuge in the goings on in Avonlea.

DGRossetti · 23/01/2019 13:53

Unless I am missing something, there's nothing May could possibly do, or say that can convince the EU27 - who are already highly wary of anything coming out of the UK at the moment.

Besides, there will be some in the EU27 who will suggest that "no deal" would be a fantastic opportunity to test and prove some of the less-known EU machinery. Which might prove very useful in the near future, if Russian antics get a bit boisterous. I know I would. Any wriggles over Brexit can be examined and patched up. (Echoes of Hitler supporting the Spanish nationalists and getting the Wehrmacht battle ready ...)

Write large, Brexit might have stopped being all about the UK now.

DGRossetti · 23/01/2019 13:55

All this talk of books.

Here's the essential list ...

A Sale of Two Titties ?
Definitely not !

Sostenueto · 23/01/2019 14:06

babooshka delayed thank you about dgd. ( it takes me so long to catch up on this fast moving thread) Yes she is amazing does it all on her own too no tutors in top 10% of country works so hard but always cheery. Hoping for Cambridge, aiming for it and if she doesn't make it will try Russell group. Ruled out Oxford saying she'd never fit in. We are so proud of her.! Good luck for all DC of people on thread. If they have perserverence and determination in the face of deprivation as my dgd has they will go far!

Sostenueto · 23/01/2019 14:08

My dgs named after Darcy in pride and prejudice Fitzwilliam darcy.........fitz for short suits him!

Mrsr8 · 23/01/2019 14:08

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Sostenueto · 23/01/2019 14:10

War and peace. I was always told to read it before I died. I have so am well prepared to dieGrin

Hazardswans · 23/01/2019 14:12

DP is now on about 25 tablets/inhalers a day, sos The complaining out of him if he had to take as much as you! And the state of my kitchen with the med stockpile Shock

Sostenueto · 23/01/2019 14:14

mrs8Flowers I forgot inhalers etc! Well if you turn me upside down I'd make a great castonet!

Sostenueto · 23/01/2019 14:18

hazard my symphaties with DPFlowers its not taking them that's such a problem its I have to eat or I'd chuck em up and its eating that's hard for me ( sigh) but I'm thankful I'm here and there are so many worse off than me medically and I'm bloody determined to see dgd graduate!

Mrsr8 · 23/01/2019 14:19

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Missbel · 23/01/2019 14:24

Somerville, I'd second the Lymond Chronicles - and they do show how the fate of all of Europe, Russia and much of the Middle East have been bound to gether for centuries - the earlier Niccolo series extends that thought to Africa...

1tisILeClerc · 23/01/2019 14:29

Flowers to all on meds. You are making me feel guilty with only 1 box of paracetemol and some hay fever tablets getting damp in my cupboard .

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 23/01/2019 14:30

Just received this

Update on Article 50 Challenge

The Court of Appeal has at last determined our appeal against the refusal of the Divisional Court back in June to grant us permission to apply for Judicial Review. Sadly, but not unexpectedly, we have been refused permission to appeal. This decision is final and there are no avenues left open to us to contest the matter any further through the Courts. The Appeal Court’s decision therefore concludes our Article 50 Challenge, and we are closing our Crowd Justice Account.

However, do remember there is still hope of our argument reaching the Court of Appeal with UK EU Challenge.

It is worth reflecting on what Article 50 Challenge has achieved, and what it could enable in the future should sanity return and a Brexit Public Inquiry be brought.

Our hearing on 12 June 2018 conclusively established some important points:

It confirmed that an actual substantive decision to leave the EU was in fact required before the Prime Minister was able to notify under Article 50;

It identified who made that decision – and that person was the Prime Minister herself acting alone on the exclusive basis of the referendum of 2016.

Lord Justice Gross took the very unusual step of making the permission hearing judgment citable, thereby ensuring UK EU Challenge could be brought.

Bizarrely, in the 14 months running up to our hearing, the Government had contended – right up to the closing minutes – that they only needed to notify under Article 50 and did not need to have decided to leave the EU at all in order to begin the process of withdrawal.

This was Alice in Wonderland logic. It reminded us of 1980s Film ‘Withnail and I’ where one of the characters said, “We’ve gone on holiday by mistake”. This was pure chicanery.

And we suspect that it was done to avoid accountability for the decision. Crudely put:

If Parliament was responsible for the decision, it would have to “squarely confront what it was doing” and use explicit language in a statute. When we say this it is “instinctively” right, but is also supported by settled law. You can see why if you read Secretary of State for the Home Department, Ex parte Simms [1999] Q.B. 349;

Alternatively:

If the decision was an administrative act of a minister (ultimately a Prime Minister is merely a minister), then there are things that must be done for that to be lawful. Its integrity is subject to Judicial Review in the same way that, say HS2 is, or Heathrow expansion, or, even commissioning an unheard-of ferry company with no craft, capital or experience and Ts & Cs lifted from Papa John’s website to run a sea freight business in a silted up port...

But if you pretend that neither pathway is available for review by the people your actions will impact upon, you totally circumvent accountability.

And – together – we exposed the fact that responsibility is squarely on Theresa May; we have proven that Parliament has not only been tricked but also subverted and frozen out.

The importance of this has already been shown in two ways, and may come to have significance in a third:

Proving the decision was made by Mrs May, means that the golden thread of accountability between the people and those who are making decisions about them is properly on show. Indeed, Article 50 Challenge is now an official record in the House of Commons Library researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8415/CBP-8415.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2IbOXJHF5aOj-HNxKARkXknLwfw1v4f5EyVcZcvj8-tFLUvo1XGL3vrVg.

Doing this was an important plank of what our friends in @UKEUChallenge were using when they brought their case, which had a hearing.

The seemingly inevitable Brexit Public Inquiry already has available to it established and significant facts on which to build.

It was nonsense to say that no decision was needed for the UK to leave the EU, and we are proud to have exposed this with your help. In reality, we are of the firm view that there still hasn’t been a valid constitutional decision to leave the EU. The Withdrawal Agreement was overwhelmingly rejected by the largest majority ever in Parliament last week.

We want to thank you for your support. We believe our case has helped people to navigate through, and provided encouragement at a time when many have felt the UK’s democracy and values are in grave danger.

Work will now begin on a thorough and careful review of our costs and we will ensure that any surpluses go to allied causes.

We will continue to keep you updated with developments in due course.

With kind regards

All at the Article 50 Challenge Team

MissWilmottsGhost · 23/01/2019 14:57

I see Naomi Klein's Shock doctrine has already been nominated for the book pile, so the other offerings from my bookshelf are Non Zero: History, evolution and human cooperation by Robert Wright, and After The Ice: A global human history 20000bc-5000bc by Stephen Mithen.

Plus Jim Butcher's Harry Dresden series because I like books about wizards Blush

Anyway, back to lurking. Keep up the good work Westminstenders Smile

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2019 15:00

Henry Zeffman @hzeffman
NEW: Jacob Rees-Mogg says Cooper cannot succeed in taking no deal off the table if “the government is prepared to stop it”.

“If the House of Commons denies our basic constitutional conventions the executive is entitled to use other means to stop it. By which I mean prorogation”

Here's a question for mega-nerds. Prorogation Act 1867 says that the Queen can prorogue parliament on the advice of the Privy Council. Would the PM telling her to prorogue satisfy that condition? Or the lord president of the council (currently Leadsom)? What if other PCs object?

Ned Donovan @ned_donovan
Lord President of the Council determines which counsellors may attend each individual meeting of Council, so would invite presumably the minimum required for quorum (3) from the Cabinet.

Full meetings of the Council only occur when the Sovereign becomes engaged or when a Regent is declared. At the demise of the Crown it’s full council + a bunch of other bodies.

I had to look up prorogue...

Prorogation of a Parliament results in the termination of a session without dissolving it. Parliament then stands prorogued until the opening of the next session. Like the summoning and dissolution of Parliament, prorogation is a prerogative act of the Crown, taken on advice

Thats definitely a good one for the democracy thread...

Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.
OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 23/01/2019 15:10

However is this likely?

Well today this also happened

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
Govt announces Commons will sit on five fridays over next couple of months... can’t imagine why

Normally the house doesn't sit on Fridays as its reserved for constituency work.

So it doesn't look like May is going to pay heed to JRM suggestion. At least not for now...

OP posts:
Random18 · 23/01/2019 15:15

Looking at the comments section on BBC’s article about TM not wanting to extend Article 50 - not nearly as one sided as previously

MissMalice · 23/01/2019 15:18

Today’s YouGov poll

Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.
DGRossetti · 23/01/2019 15:23

If people are stuck for reading, then if you can get your hands on a copy of "The Coming Dark Age" from the 1970s, you might feel better equipped ...

This book used to sit next to a massive yellow book on self sufficiency my DM (where you may have guessed, I get my eclectic tastes from Grin) was into.

Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.
icannotremember · 23/01/2019 15:26

Sorry if anyone has previously posted this and I've missed it, but there's an interesting piece on Conservative Home about why a snap GE could be a very bad idea for the Tories. "In short, it’s plausible to imagine, in the event of a snap poll, Brexit not helping the Conservatives much in provincial Britain, but it harming them to a significant degree in London. Nationally, it would shed lots of former Remain voters without gaining many new Leave ones."

RedToothBrush · 23/01/2019 15:33

BBC newsnight @ BBC newsnight
“Yvette Cooper has put an amendment down, which I think is sensible,” says Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell adding “it’s increasingly likely” Labour would back her amendment

@johnmcdonnellMP | #newsnight

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn
The most important political statement of the week.
1. If Labour whips for Cooper, it wins and no deal disappears
2. Dozens of Remain Tory ministers no longer have to resign to vote for it (now it’s a sure thing), and Theresa limps on

Nick Boles @nickboles
Steady on, Tom. Front bench Labour support is very welcome but not sufficient to secure victory. We will need other opposition parties to follow suit and a good many Conservatives too to join them.

Joe Owen @ jl_owen
Worth being clear that Yvette Cooper Bill wouldn't prevent no deal in March 2019...

Extension only if meaningful vote isn't passed.

BUT - if meaningful vote passed but Withdrawal Agreement Bill isn't (either deliberately or not)? Cooper Bill falls away, no deal in March 19

Steve Hawkes @ steve_hawkes
Labour has told second referendum campaigners it is backing the Cooper-Boles Amendment

Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak
interesting - leader's office this morning says no final decision yet, but taking it very seriously

Let me try and unpick this merry old mess.

Labour’s frontbench have been making loud noises about this Cooper-Boles amendment.

It's a good way of appeasing the second ref lot.

But Nick Boles intervention raises a good point. How much support does the Conservative Party have for it, and

A) does Corbyn want to get too close to a cross party agreement and costing up to softer Conservatives. It exposes him to Leaver criticism

B) Nick Boles is trying to down play whether Labour will back it. He's possibly worried he'd get stiffed at the last second and not attract enough ministers to resign to enable the Bill to pass. The danger of the amendment accidentally not passing when it has enough cross party support though it requires resignations to make it happen.
C) Does Corbyn want lots of Tory Ministers to resign? The answer to this, I suspect is yes because it could in theory weaken May so much that the government collaspes so there is a GE. Obviously Boles doesn't want this but he knows there is a fine line between passing and no passing and it depends on how much he think May will be weakened by ministerial resignations.

So Boles wants enough but not too many Tories on board. Corbyn is opportunistically using it as a stave for 2nd refers, and as a possible opportunity for weakening May but wants to appear all anti-deally as much as possible for a Remainer audience whilst also not quite committing to it to preserve Leaver support.

Which begs the question of whether Corbyn will back it or whether it's simple posturing.

As for the other comment about the bus that can be driven through it if the MV passes but not the WA. Fuck knows. That's list me. But it sounds bad, and JRM is already suggesting going full on Charles I and preroguing parliament to stop it all anyway.

goes cross eyed

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 23/01/2019 15:36

umpteen Not the slightest sign here in Germany that the govt would ever consider bullying Ireland into making the backstop meaningless

The German public, despite little until November in the media on Brexit, are probably better informed than the British public, certainly about the SM implications and there is great sympathy for ireland, seen as the innocent little victim of UK insanity and disfunctio.

As I posted, colleagues now who ask me about Brexit spontaneously say how terrible it is for Ireland.

Bullying Ireland "for the good of the rest" could be far more damaging longterm to the EU than No Deal Brexit,
12 of the members are small countries, who would regard ireland being sacrificed as a foretaste of what is to come for them
and regarding the weak as expendable in the interests of the strong would be anathema to the largest countries too:

it would set up the EU in any future negotiation, whether with the UK, US or China, to be split into individual members and lose all the power of being an economic superpower as a bloc

I don't see the numbers anywhere near enough for QMV approval against the wishes of Ireland

^So unless Ireland decides they'd rather ditch the backstop and just rely on their veto on a future trade deal

  • which would just invite isolation and bullying - I expect the UK will either have to suck up the backstop or crash out wtih No Deal^
RedToothBrush · 23/01/2019 15:38

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Intriguing shift in EU’s position on extending Article 50 from Barnier today. The 27 probably will, and no longer just for a democratic moment - but only if the Commons can demonstrate a clear (not a wafer thin) majority for a plan.

Which might persuade a few more tory ministers to resign than otherwise... But Corbyn..

Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.
OP posts:
1tisILeClerc · 23/01/2019 15:43

From the Guardian comments:
{For the EU to prosper, Britain must leave
Eoin Drea}
Almost as if they are trolling me, which is a bit spooky.

Swipe left for the next trending thread