Westminstenders: Red Squirrels are British. Groundhogs are not.

[RedToothBrush]

Well the good news is we haven't got a GE yet, and it looks unlike one will be called this week. Purely because we haven't got a crisis point looming this week.

May has officially confirmed plan A is plan B. But says she will try and get more on the backstop whilst working with the DUP. Barnier and Ireland have said 'no'

We now prepare for the Meaningful Vote II.

And a week of speculation about amendments.

Here's a quick summary of likely ones:
Guardian Article on possible amendments

I think the Labour one will struggle to gain Tory support. The big thing about it is leans the party line firmly towards a customs union.

The Grieve one is handicapped by talk of a minority of 300 taking control of Parliament. Otherwise it might have support.

The two most interesting are:

The Benn 'Indicative Vote' as its reflective of the Brexit Select Committee recommendations.

The Cooper-Boles Block No Deal amendment which is cross party and seeks to place a final date on May passing her deal by 26th Feb, after which Parliament will take control. This I believe is being supported by Labour as a whole.

Bercow of course gets to say which amendments are debated and voted on but Benn and Cooper-Boles have broad support so are unlikely to be ignored by him. The two together seem to compliment each other.

The rest of this week is likely to be lobbying on this but otherwise fairly calm. Though someone is bound to throw a few curveball in there with leaks.

The only other thing to watch out for is talk of up to 40 ministers quitting if they are not allowed a free vote on some sort of indicative vote motion. This seems to be being lead by Amber Rudd. But I don't expect this to come to a head until the weekend at the earliest.

In other words, we have a couple of days of calm before the storm. Expect it to ramp up again at the weekend in craziness.

I have a book problem.

It is also influencing which houses we are interested in buying. Some house layouts do not appear to be compatible with book owning. Its something we've looked at explicitly on rightmove - where will the books go? Its very interesting seeing which houses have lots of books in and which don't.

I'd be interesting to know if there was truth to the book / tory thing. It would save a lot of time canvasing; just nip up the drive, quick glance in the window and know whether its worth a punt to knock on or not.

www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-conservatives-to-block-post-brexit-trade-role-for-scottish-government-1-4860755

Scottish Conservative MPs have warned the government they will not support any move to give the Scottish Government a formal role in trade negotiations after Brexit.

The group of Scottish Tories is “wary” of suggestions that ministers from Holyrood could be given a seat at the table in talks with third countries after the UK leaves the EU.

I am ashamed to say that Tory Stephen Kerr is my MP

My book choices are
The Rivers of London /Peter Grant books
All of Stuart Maconie's books , Pies and prejudice being a favourite.
Pride and prejudice
All of Nigel Slaters cookbooks

Sapiens by yuval Noah harari is excellent. It's about how humankinds cultural evolution. Eye-opening.
One of the big themes in the book is how the world is steadily coming together and more interconnected. And this momentum cannot be changed.

The UK is just a speck in an interconnected world.

I should clarify that when I suggested putting a must-have book shelf together I didn’t only mean Brexit-related

I understood that but my long list would take all day. 🤪

Mine are more political turmoil or Europe related than Brexit.

I loved "I Capture the Castle" by Dodie Smith when I was younger.

I can't get rid of books even when I've read them. (I've got Kondo's book but it's just gathering dust and never been opened )

Loving some of the suggestions. Have read many of them ("1984" is particularly apposite) but there are others I should add to my Wish List.

Not sure Philip Pullman's "His Dark Materials" trilogy. Also Asimov's Foundation more than three "Trilogy". And of course Douglas Adams' "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy" (and sequels). If only the answer to this clusterfuck was as simple as "42"

@Prettybird you wrote:
*
I did like this response from Anna Soubry:

I sometimes feel like saying "Okay, have your wretched hard deal in all its ghastliness" but that would be so irresponsible and we have to put our national interest first, and getting rid of no deal is the absolutely the right thing to do.

It felt very human - and echoes some of my own suppressed thoughts about the potential for a hard/No Deal Brexit to hasten Scottish independence
*

That was AS’s reply to my question I think. I did not phase it clearly enough because I definitely was not suggesting we should give in to no deal in a cutting off your nose to spite your face kind of way. My question was along the lines of how do we ensure people know what the reality of no deal actually is? I asked if a trial period of no deal could be arranged (e.g the general strike that previous posters on these threads have suggested). While she is correct that this would be incredibly irresponsible with real world consequences for vulnerable people, we will end up with that outcome on a permanent basis if we do not do something radical to stop it. Perhaps better a few weeks of chaos with time to revoke on current terms rather than crashing out permanently (and any future rejoin would be without the opt outs/rebate etc)

Even now, with just weeks to go no one is yet suggesting revoke. Regarding the kerfuffle about getting a people’s vote amendment, I agree we need to rule out no deal first as the public in general seem to have no clue what no deal actually means. Consequently, there seems to me a very real danger no deal could be the result, especially as no safeguards have been put in place to prevent the same dirty tactics used predominantly by the Leave side in the 2016 referendum.

James Dyson on Radio 2 now explaining why he's not a hypocrite or a traitor.

mybrainhurtsalot - your question was a really good one (and would be one way of getting at least some of the Leavers to acknowledge that the pain will be real and will affect them, so that they can then decide whether or not the pain is worth it for them personally ) but I was commenting more on the way her response resonated with my own suppressed feelings.

Dyson can fuck off to the far side of fuck and then fuck off some more.

If we are going for books we would be locked in a celler with while the country descends into chaos it has to be Children of Time by Adrian Tchaikovsky. The most phenomenal bit of truly epic SF I have read in years. Also I think I would save my copy of Infinite Jest from a fire. Anything by Ian M. Banks would go in and probably my very favourite book about the end of human civilization, Galapagos by Kurt Vonnegut. Possibly the only book where the human race dies out but in the most adorable way.

It's nice to get book recommendations alongside politics updates on here. There has always been a fair bit of book chat - bookworms in general are keen on MN, I reckon, but perhaps particularly threads like these where we are documenting an ongoing saga. (Fingers crossed that the ending places this tale within the up-lit genre, rather than some kind of dystopian horror.)

I know I'm not the only Chalet School fan here. I wonder if reading about their wartime exploits, as children, gave us a sense of European solidarity? The school girls, of various nationalities including Germans, before they have to flee Austria, make a Peace League. which they then have to hide, since:
“Many of the girls were well on in their teens, and, from all accounts, Hitler and his crew were perfectly capable of punishing them. Already there were whispers of concentration camps.”
It's extraordinary, for a book published in 1940.

In case of long evenings without much entertainment in no-deal, buy Dorothy Dunnett's Lymond Chronicles. I can't think of a way to link them to Brexit. Oh - Scottish and Irish nationalism are plot strands. And understanding history and the huge impact that individuals can make, for better or worse.

Holiday bookings are up on last year. (BBC news.)

John Lloyd is a contributing editor at the Financial Times.

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-fintan-o-toole-has-got-brexit-all-wrong-1.3766746?mode=amp

Lisa Nandy, the Labour MP for Wigan and a remainer, wrote in the New York Review of Books that her “leave-voting constituents have been called stupid, racist little Englanders. The truth is nothing of the sort . . . when people were asked if they wanted to leave the EU, it was an opportunity to push back against one of the most vivid symbols of a political system that is faceless, unresponsive and unaccountable, where decisions are made by people hundreds of miles away”.

England – Britain – has not gone mad. The chaotic scenes in parliament and the thousands of arguments up and down the country bear witness to a deeply democratic and civic culture. Those who prefer politics to be the smooth management of the people by an elite mistake it for dementia.

I'm so relieved that England - Britain has not gone mad. Going to sleep much better tonight.

The school girls, of various nationalities including Germans, before they have to flee Austria, make a Peace League.

I've thought of this several times in the past week and felt like Westminstenders should do a similar league.

England – Britain – has not gone mad. The chaotic scenes in parliament and the thousands of arguments up and down the country bear witness to a deeply democratic and civic culture. Those who prefer politics to be the smooth management of the people by an elite mistake it for dementia.

I think they might be the sort of person who watches you cough up blood and tells you it's a great sign that your body is getting rid of all that bad stuff.

Don't rule out houses because of book storage before putting in some creative thinking, Red. When we realised we couldn't yet move or properly extend we pulled down the stud wall between lounge and dining room (which had big double doors that were generally open) and replaced with this kind of thing, floor to ceiling... DH's books had been in boxes for a year, since he moved in, at that point. It's solved all our storage problems - especially as we had it built double sided.

SusanWalker - Anne of Green Gables is my most re-read book (along with all the sequels). It’s my go-to comfort read so I suppose is, in a way, very much Brexit related now

And yes, Sue and Adrian would have nailed Brexit. The original is a very interesting look at life in Thatcher’s Britain.

Misti sorry for the misunderstanding but glad it’s not you. Shit of course for all those it will affect

Influenza A is rife around here atm according to my gp

I wonder if that’s what’s we’ve had. I’ve been in bed all week and dh is now incapacitated. He’s usually as hard as nails when it comes to colds but this has knocked him on his arse. The kids have it but somehow seem to be fairing better than we are.

It’s horrible how vulnerable being sick makes you. A flu outbreak in a no deal scenario wouldn’t be fun.

Can I add Diana Gabdon’s Outlander Series to the book list? It’s a big series of even bigger books - just right for hunkering down with!
PMK with a big thank you to all you lovely peeps for keeping the thread so informative.

Sorry if this is repeated, won't have chance to read the thread until after work...

Here is Peston's latest commentary

"The Prime Minister's whole game now is to persuade the leaders of the EU27 nations that if they were to ditch or to put a time limit on the widely hated backstop, her and their Brexit plan would be ratified at the last by MPs.

Can she persuade them?

Well with backbench MPs poised via a vote on the Cooper/Boles amendment to force Theresa May to plead with the EU to delay the moment the UK leaves the EU and take a no-deal Brexit off the table, Brexiters are panicking that a referendum and staying in the EU will soon become the default position.

So both the DUP and the Brexiters of the European Research Group have come over all emollient in respect of the PM's deal - saying very publicly that so long as the backstop dies, her version of Brexit could possibly live (and there'll be more of this from ERG chairman Jacob Rees-Mogg at lunchtime).

Many of them would hold their noses and support her deal, shorn of the backstop, they say.

Which puts the EU in a tight spot. Because the PM has to shift the votes of a staggering 116 MPs to win second time round, and the best she would be able to say to the EU27's prime ministers - in the words of one of her ministerial colleagues - is that she could "possibly" win.

And such a win would not be obtained by a further backstop fudge. The position, in the worlds of one rebel MP, is that "if they bury the backstop and drive a stake through its heart, the deal might squeak through by a handful of votes but it would be close".

What will determine whether the EU would make such a huge leap, to rescue Theresa May and the deal?

Here is the thinking that is going on in EU capitals, relayed to me by a senior official from one of them:

"Given that the majority of two thirds [of the Commons] by which the Withdrawal Agreement [or Brexit deal] was defeated is composed of Unionists, hard Brexiteers as well as Remainers, it would take very clear evidence that it is 'only' the backstop that prevents passage of the WA.

"Theresa May (or whoever) would have to be able to show there is a large and stable majority for the WA on such a basis, and a majority good enough to deliver not just the meaningful vote, but also the ratification and adoption of all necessary UK internal legislation [that will translate the deal into an orderly Brexit on by 29 March].

"I don't think that at the moment anyone is convinced about that. And all MPs seem to want to talk about is the future relationship - not the backstop".

Let us not forget that as recently as December the EU27 rejected a request from the UK to have even an "aspirational" termination date grafted into the backstop. And the Polish foreign minister's suggestion of a five-year time limit earlier this week was swiftly slapped down.

So although the PM will take considerable comfort from the moves by Mogg and the DUP to tone down their rhetoric against the broader tapestry of her deal (which of course still repels them), she will need much more from them if the EU27 leaders are to make the kind of compromise which all history suggests they will never make.

The Brexiters and DUP will need to prove beyond reasonable doubt both that they would vote for a Withdrawal Agreement stripped of the Brexit, and that they command sufficient numbers of votes to carry it over the line.

It is that requisite very public endorsement by Mogg of May and the iteration of Brexit he despises that, to put it mildly, stretches credibility. Have stranger things ever happened?"

Reading Hazard's description of the kitchen looking like a pharmacy...pharmacies would probably require police/military protection in case of civil unrest.

Funny joke on radio 4 last night ' if you know who your MEP is then its you!'

My bathroom looks like a pharmacy only because I'm on nearly 40 tablets/capsules a day ( might be more haven't energy to count). Its exhausting taking so many!

I've still got a copy of Chaucer from my youth.